Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Drakoen:
Upper level trough needs to pull out of the Caribbean some more so 93L can get some better symmetry.

Is it in the process?

Quoting leo305:


which is why those touting "TEXAS" need to look at the upper level steering currents and not just the surface steering currents.. because a strong HURRICANE will feel whats up there

Yes but unless it is a "STRONG" hurricane it won't feel it. I have yet to see proof (that is believable) of a strong hurricane while it's still in the Caribbean.

YAY I WAS POST 1600

Quoting F4PHANTOM:
All a matter of timing. Correct?

not just that, but the strength of this thing will matter more so in my opinion..

Quoting muddertracker:
*yawns* 93l is not looking so good right now. No LLC yet. Waning vorticity. Waning convection..off to take my son to football practice.

DMAX is coming...im thinking we'll see some increased organization overnight

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes but unless it is a "STRONG" hurricane it won't feel it. I have yet to see proof (that is believable) of a strong hurricane while it's still in the Caribbean.

If conditions are really going to be as favorable as forecasted, there could be some RI in the NW Caribbean. Just one possible scenario.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes but unless it is a "STRONG" hurricane it won't feel it. I have yet to see proof (that is believable) of a strong hurricane while it's still in the Caribbean.

if it develops a tight circulation at the surface, it can ramp up real quick, remember as it moves W/WNW there wont be shear to stop this, and the moisture/Water temperature is hot enough to fuel a CAT5 hurricane..

Good evening to everyone! Does anybody have the link to the ships model page. Thanks!

Quoting ElConando:


Is it in the process?

Very much so. Upper level anticyclonic flow has been established atop 93L.

Quoting MississippiWx:


Actually, it is banding. You don't have to have a "classified" system to have banding features. A surface low pressure is present and it does have bands extending outward from it.

There isn't any banding there. Thunderstorm activity is waning thus thunderstorms are collapsing which shows that outflow in the upper levels, that outflow might be what you are mistaking with banding.

Quoting RecordSeason:
It's the uncertainty principle. If you look at it you change it.

I tried that. No change......

Ok guys lets stop asking where its going first of all it not a storm yet not even td it sounds kinda crazy asking where its going and it hasnt even formed yet it kinda makes me think the ones that keeps asking wants it to come to them LOL

Quoting extreme236:


If conditions are really going to be as favorable as forecasted, there could be some RI in the NW Caribbean. Just one possible scenario.

Yes I agree on that, but it won't be strong enough.

93L taking a lil breath with the anti over it establishing.

All GREEN in the checklist for organization thru the next 24-36 downstream.

Tropical wave SE of the Antilles looks interesting. Probably nothing, but interesting nonetheless. Has decent vorticity at 850mb.

Quoting Drakoen:


Very much so. Upper level anticyclonic flow has been established atop 93L.

I just saw that on the latest shear graphs.

Quoting txsweetpea:
I live in South East Texas. Tx/La border

I'm sorry, it appears that you took me far more seriously than I intended...this early, this thing could go anywhere...there are slightly better possibilities, based on what we THINK may be the conditions at 3, or 4 or even 5 days out.

While the early models pointed in the general direction of the TX/MX border, this track is most likely to move eastward over the next few days as the high currently centered over the TX coast (and inland) gradually lifts out...that is, of course, if this thing doesn't actually dissipate over that time frame; not likely, but always a possibility.

If you look at the last few model runs they're kind of all over the place as they generally are this early in the life cycle of one of these features. As with most of these things, patience eventually yields the information we need, as hard as that is to come by sometimes; therein lies the rub here: the good and great ones, Drak, stormw, levi32, the doc himself, are generally very patient and the less adept (none of whom I shall name; crazy I may be, but foolish rarely) are much more adamant that "it's going here" or "it's going there!"

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes I agree on that, but it won't be strong enough.

I wouldn't be so sure on it's intensity at this point. It's very possible as this moves into the central Caribbean we could be looking at a tropical storm. If that happens, we could see it spin up into a hurricane very quickly in the NW Caribbean. We'll see...again, just one possible scenario.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes but unless it is a "STRONG" hurricane it won't feel it. I have yet to see proof (that is believable) of a strong hurricane while it's still in the Caribbean.

low shear, insane TCHP, model support, high SST's

everything points to this becoming a strong hurricane while still in Caribbean. The SHIPS brings it to 114 MPH hurricane in 120 hours when it will still be in Caribbean. Chances are 93L will become the first hurricane of the 2010 hurricane season and eventually the first major hurricane.

Lookig at models my opinion is that it will be strong enough to feel weakness of trough and unfortunately be more of a threat to the central and eastern GOM rather than Texas

Quoting extreme236:
Tropical wave SE of the Antilles looks interesting. Probably nothing, but interesting nonetheless. Has decent vorticity at 850mb.

Couple models took it to Florida, don't know if they still are.

Quoting extreme236:
Tropical wave SE of the Antilles looks interesting. Probably nothing, but interesting nonetheless. Has decent vorticity at 850mb.

It has my attention. Heavy rain expected with that.
Ground is already well saturated here.....

I have now seen definitely not banding all the way over to clearly banding.

Gotta say I see no banding, and if you do, please show me.

Quoting Floodman:


I will have you know that I am currently on room air

Must be some powerful.@#$%....Either way, it looks more likely than not that some area bordering the Gulf is going to get whacked with a hurricane. Whether its 93L or not. I could be labeled a down-caster, after all more than one landfall is being predicted.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes I agree on that, but it won't be strong enough.

what do u consider strong enough in order to feel a weakness created by a trough?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There isn't any banding there. Thunderstorm activity is waning thus thunderstorms are collapsing which shows that outflow in the upper levels, that outflow might be what you are mistaking with banding.

No, we discussed it earlier with Levi. It's actual banding. There are bands to the east feeding into the system and bands to the northwest.

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Ri can occur at TD strength. It definitely will be a TD then.

I believe it has to have a pressure of around 950 millibars to feel upper level steering.

Quoting Twinkster:


what do u consider strong enough in order to feel a weakness created by a trough?

Upper level steering, I think, is felt when a system attains a pressure of 950 millibars or below, not sure though.

Quoting pottery:

It has my attention. Heavy rain expected with that.
Ground is already well saturated here.....

There is a twist to it. It might bring copious rains to you Calabash TREE...:)

Quoting MississippiWx:


No, we discussed it earlier with Levi. It's actual banding. There are bands to the east feeding into the system and bands to the northwest.

But how much earlier? 93L has changed a lot in organization in the past few hours.

I'll say one thing, 93L is taking the shape of true tropical cyclone regardless of the other lacking criteria, that in itself is strong sign of a favorable environment for steady organization and development.

When is it forecasted to even get in the gulf? and when is the break down of the high suppose to take place

Quoting DestinJeff:
It seems possible that getting an invest to deveelop is like watching grass grow. We analyze and analyze and analyze these things to the point that they get stage-fright.

93L is embarassed right now with all our eyes on it.

Have you ever seen seemingly dead grass grow in Florida?
Just add a good rain and step back.
Dead grass today!
One foot tall three days later.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I believe it has to have a pressure of around 950 millibars to feel upper level steering.

I completely disagree. Any hurricane can feel a weakness in created by a trough. Granted this trough is most likely not that strong 93L has plenty of time to strengthen in order to feel a weakness in the atmosphere

Floodman,
You must have me confused with someone else. I AM NOT taking anything SERIOUS at this point. I realize that these things take time and anything can happen. So... Just for the record I do Not believe ANYONE is taking ANYTHING serious at this time..We are just searching for information and staying informed.

Quoting btwntx08:

in a few days u wont be yawning at this

lol

Quoting Twinkster:


low shear, insane TCHP, model support, high SST's

everything points to this becoming a strong hurricane while still in Caribbean. The SHIPS brings it to 114 MPH hurricane in 120 hours when it will still be in Caribbean. Chances are 93L will become the first hurricane of the 2010 hurricane season and eventually the first major hurricane.

Lookig at models my opinion is that it will be strong enough to feel weakness of trough and unfortunately be more of a threat to the central and eastern GOM rather than Texas

I think you are exaggerating a little there, although conditions are forecasted and are currently are favorable I just can't say that an invest might become a major hurricane, too much uncertainty right now.

Quoting hydrus:
There is a twist to it. It might bring copious rains to you Calabash TREE...:)

Nah! That tree has a Force Field around it.
Made it myself. Used 7 shower curtains.......