Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

looks like 93L is drifting slowly to the west..

I'm still interested in what the ECMWF shows intensity wise on this system, but now that we have our more reliable tools for intensity forecasting (SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, etc.) I know I'll be paying more attention to those.

Quoting Floodman:


Wait a minute, I thought that

mares eat oats
and does eats
and little lambs eat ivy;
a kid'll eat ivy too...or was I wrong

You are living proof that they keep growing it stronger and stronger.....And i dont mean the oats or the kuzu,or whatever they call it..:)

Quoting F4PHANTOM:
You need to check all the model runs that you missed. 2runs ago ECMWF was taking a strong hurricane into the Fla. panhandle; now a wave into the entire Tex. coast.

Considering it took it to Texas for about 5 or 6 runs with the exception of the last 00z run, the majority took it to Texas.

Quoting twhcracker:


and cows and goats will eat kudzu.

A story about Haiti and good Intentions-
5 years ago a group of well meaning people put together a container-load of seeds for the Haitian people to plant.
They were horrified when the Haitians made Porridge and ate up all the seeds.....
I had to explain, that Hunger overrides ALL other emotion/desire/need.

I added boom to my list this year.

Quoting extreme236:
I'm still interested in what the ECMWF shows intensity wise on this system, but now that we have our more reliable tools for intensity forecasting (SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, etc.) I know I'll be paying more attention to those.

Me too, I'm looking at the ECMWF for track as not too many models have initialized on 93L yet.

Quoting twhcracker:


you must work for the TDC haha

Nope just on vacation lol. My family and I have come here every year for all 21 of my years and this is the cleanest/warmest it's ever been. We're here til Saturday so hopefully it'll stay like this until then

Times-Picayune reporter David Hammer, who is covering the BP oil spill, explains the latest developments June 21,2010.

Quoting weathersp:


The CMC and EMCWF started to pick it up on yesterday's 12z run and continued with it on the 00z. The EMCWF had a 950mb into NOLA on the 00z run (take with the dead sea of salt). 93L was declared and a blob has taken shape ahead of schedudle, wathcing for LLC's/COC's/ any sort of spins at the moment. Shear is very low and conditions are favorable for devlopment. Currently specialty models are having a hard time tracking it beacuse ther is no "center".

thanks for the update. i'm sure they were going nuts yesterday with the 950mb into New Orleans.

Finally got some vorticity, I expect a possible weak LLC tonight.

But of course, without a defined center, the GFDL and HWRF are obviously having some trouble with 93L, as they show absolutely nothing with this system during the 12z run.

Quoting hydrus:
You are living proof that they keep growing it stronger and stronger.....And i dont mean the oats or the kuzu,or whatever they call it..:)

!!!, hehehehhhh

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Considering it took it to Texas for about 5 or 6 runs with the exception of the last 00z run, the majority took it to Texas.

Where at along the texas coast?

Quoting extreme236:
I'm still interested in what the ECMWF shows intensity wise on this system, but now that we have our more reliable tools for intensity forecasting (SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, etc.) I know I'll be paying more attention to those.

SHIPS takes it to a Cat 1 in 48 hours and a Cat 3 eventually, there is no center so it's hard for the models to get a good grip on this.

Quoting twhcracker:
if oil zilla comes, cyclone oz could be on twc looking like one of those blobbed up brown pelicans. cantore could interview him. he would look like a man shaped brown coated lumpy talking babe ruth bar. and then cantore might accidentally strike a match.... yikes

Much will depend on if it is a hurricane and where it comes ashore. If it is a gulf hurricane, major category, and follows the euro, then it is much more likely that Cycloneoz will be the first person to show us if oil has become airborne. Cantore? He does not go out into hurricanes. He just goes to them.

Quoting iluvjess:
I added boom to my list this year.

LOL!

Quoting Jebekarue:
Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks

fix a flat, mosquito/bug repellant

A high quality aluminum handle fry pan for use on the grill.
Or camping cook pans.
Combustible handled pans are not a good idea on open flame or grill.

And immodium if things get rough!

Quoting cg2916:


Finally got some vorticity, I expect a possible weak LLC tonight.

If you click the -3hr tab in the upper left corner, the rotation was stronger at that time. Seemed to have taken a couple steps backwards.

Quoting cg2916:


Finally got some vorticity, I expect a possible weak LLC tonight.

I dont want to see that!
Denial is not just a river in Africa.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Me too, I'm looking at the ECMWF for track as not too many models have initialized on 93L yet.

And they won't until 93L forms a LLC.

LGEM, IVCN, and SHIPS take 93L to near-category 4 strength, scary thing is it's June.

18z early-cycle runs on 93L.



18z early-cycle intensity runs on 93L.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



If you click the -3hr tab in the upper left corner, the rotation was stronger at that time. Seemed to have taken a couple steps backwards.

That vorticity isn't over 93L 3 hours back.

Mayors from across America visit Louisiana marsh fouled by BP oil spill
Published: Monday, June 21, 2010, 2:21 PM


From the deck of a charter fishing boat idling near the marsh in Barataria Bay, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu on Monday showed more than a dozen mayors from cities across America the damage BP's oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is wreaking upon Louisiana's wetlands.


Behind a barrier of stained white boom, a thick black ring lined the bed of a vast field of bright green marsh grass poking out of the sea. In some places, the deadly oil already had killed thick patches of grass, leaving a soggy, brown heap. A few small blobs of oil floated on the water's surface. A faint petroleum stink hung in the hot air.


"This is not an esoteric experience. This is real life." Landrieu told mayors from California, to Massachusetts, and from Minnesota to the Gulf Coast.

"It's like a nightmare that keeps recurring," he said, driving home the message that until engineers can cap the gushing underwater well about 80 miles south of New Orleans, the oil spill remains an ongoing disaster.

Even as Landrieu and others highlighted the oil's harmful effects on the marshes, however, they also heralded a pair of messages that, while second-nature to those along the Gulf Coast, surprise outsiders: much of Louisiana's seafood is safe to eat, and a six-month moratorium on deepwater drilling could cripple the state's economy.

Explaining that oil pipelines snake beneath the bayou that the delegation traversed by boat for about an hour before reaching the oiled marsh, Landrieu said that the drivers in every city represented by the visiting mayors rely on oil mined in south Louisiana to fuel their cars.

"If we can't do this, we need to talk about a new energy policy," Landrieu said.

For their part, the visitors said the scene on the ground differed greatly from what they expected based on news reports.

"Way up in Philadelphia, it's a very different story from what we're seeing today. All we see is the same B-roll of something coming out underwater," Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter said, referring to video images of the underwater oil plume gushing from the busted Macondo 252 well.

"I had fish and shrimp last night, and it did not taste like oil like they say on the news," said Elizabeth Kautz, the mayor of Burnsville, Minn., and president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, which sponsored the junket.

Quoting Floodman:


Wait a minute, I thought that

mares eat oats
and does eats
and little lambs eat ivy;
a kid'll eat ivy too...or was I wrong

You're as whacked as Pat only you run to verbal links. Must be too many Dead concerts. LoL

Puerto Rico?

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LGEM, IVCN, and SHIPS take 93L to near-category 4 strength, scary thing is it's June.

18z early-cycle runs on 93L.



18z early-cycle intensity runs on 93L.

Oh, heck no!

Quoting btwntx08:
interesting from the nws brownsville:
LONG TERM /7 PM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE SAME FORECAST REASONING PREVAILS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS
PRODUCING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID WEEK OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD INTO
MEXICO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER
FLORIDA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN US.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND WESTWARD WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
5810 METERS.

Basically the same thing being said by the Miami weather service. With high pressure expanding westward that would keep the system in the general direction of Texas/Mexico.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Me too, I'm looking at the ECMWF for track as not too many models have initialized on 93L yet.

Look at the upper air data from the recent Euro and GFS runs. That is what you need to look at now, not the surface track as that is pretty much crap right now. If we have a strong well stacked system it is becoming more likely for a trough to break down the ridge and pull 93L up. If it is weaker, it will not be influenced as much by the trough. Pay attention to the upper air data in the Euro and GFS, because if the Euro develops a stronger system on the surface analysis, it will feel the trough.

Quoting cg2916:




That vorticity isn't over 93L 3 hours back.

Oh, I thought you all were looking at the Vort east of Trini...sorry.

Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

Puerto Rico?

Probably the wave behind 93L, models have been hinting on that.

Quoting txsweetpea:



Where at along the texas coast?

Southern Texas, but don't take it seriously right now, we are still very long ways out.

5:00 pm EDT National Hurricane Center Advisories: GRAPHICS UPDATE

Quoting Ivanhater:


Look at the upper air data from the recent Euro and GFS runs. That is what you need to look at now, not the surface track as that is pretty much crap right now. If we have a strong well stacked system it is becoming more likely for a trough to break down the ridge and pull 93L up. If it is weaker, it will not be influenced as much by the trough. Pay attention to the upper air data in the Euro and GFS, because if the Euro develops a stronger system on the surface analysis, it will feel the trough.

Thanks.

Quoting txsweetpea:



Where at along the texas coast?

Where do you live? LOL

Its going to take time for this system to wind up and tighten. Models won't have a good grasp on it until then. Just sit back and wait a day or two and well know alot more about where it should be headed.

INV/93/L
MARK
13.1N/67.6W

I live in South East Texas. Tx/La border

93L RGB Still

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


You're as whacked as Pat only you run to verbal links. Must be too many Dead concerts. LoL

Thank you, Shen...coming from you, that's high praise indeed!

Out for a while....

(I heard that sigh of relief, from here!)

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LGEM, IVCN, and SHIPS take 93L to near-category 4 strength, scary thing is it's June.

18z early-cycle runs on 93L.



18z early-cycle intensity runs on 93L.

I can't see them?

Quoting cg2916:




That vorticity isn't over 93L 3 hours back.

thank you for responding...lol...i was too lazy to post the image and say, what are you talking about?...lol...def increasing.

Quoting hydrus:
You are living proof that they keep growing it stronger and stronger.....And i dont mean the oats or the kuzu,or whatever they call it..:)

I will have you know that I am currently on room air

Can some one please post the early model runs for 93L...I'd appreciate it.

All the info is on the Wunderground tropical page..