Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

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1401. CyclonicVoyage 08:46 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Bye Bye Shear, wowza Member Since: Gennaio 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

1403. winter123 08:47 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Floodman: A little Windex and a papertowel will take care of that No it's actually a dead pixel :( Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

1404. gator23 08:48 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting gordydunnot: My synopsis for this season is the gulf coast could have done well this year without one. But as they say when its rains it pores. it pours actually LOL Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

1405. Patrap 08:48 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Check the SST box,and MSLP Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1407. Floodman 08:48 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting winter123: No it's actually a dead pixel :( Dammit! I hate it when that happens... Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

1408. xcool 08:49 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1409. Floodman 08:49 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting gator23: it pours actually LOL Maybe it does "pore" in this case...LOL Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

1411. cg2916 08:49 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Dry air not a problem. Member Since: Dicembre 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 2908

1412. MiamiHurricanes09 08:49 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting CaneWarning: As long as it doesn't get kicked to the N.E. once it gets into the Gulf. If any state should be concerned with 93L (which at this point in time they shouldn't) it would be Texas. But we are still a loooooooooooong ways before I know that what I said will be accurate. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1414. Patrap 08:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
2015 UTC RGB Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1415. homelesswanderer 08:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Good afternoon. I was relieved to see the 12z EURO. I don't know how anything will play out. But that was a hell of a lot better than a major cane. They may be exciting to track and talk about. But the reality of one sucks worse than a lot of things I've come across. And I've been around a while. :) Ok. There's my downcasting moment for the day. But if it works I'll become a downcasting fool. :) The only local opinion I could get was from Houston. Not very local to me but they said the models are having a hard time gauging the strength of the Bermuda High. We'll see what happens. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

1416. Lower4216 08:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Can anyone tell me how to adjust the size of the page? The text runs off the right side and I have to scoot the page over to read it. BE NICE! Member Since: Agosto 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 27

1418. stillwaiting 08:51 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
ever been a year when hurricane's made landfall in every state along the Gulf coast?????,not the same hurricane but 5 different canes??? Member Since: Ottobre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

1419. Patrap 08:51 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Im gonna go run out and get a New Oil Filter for the House. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1420. PalmBeachWeatherBoy 08:52 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Wow the Carribean is getting soaked, which is very bad news for haiti, if something develops here it will take a while with the size of this thing. Member Since: Agosto 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 433

1421. NOVArules 08:52 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting cg2916: Dry air not a problem. Oh noes, it's a DUSTCANE! Everyone needs to evacuate before it gets to cat -5!! Member Since: Agosto 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

1422. Hurricanes101 08:52 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Patrap: Im gonna go run out and get a New Oil Filter for the House. Might have to be a big one Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1423. Jebekarue 08:52 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting leelee75k: a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages. Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of? thanks fix a flat, mosquito/bug repellant Member Since: Luglio 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 225

1425. MississippiWx 08:52 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting cg2916: Dry air not a problem. Dry air won't be a problem for this system, in the Caribbean, at least. It's partly associated with the monsoon trof. If you look across Northern South America, you'll notice that there is hardly any convection it is normally loaded with convection. That is because the trof moved north out into the Caribbean and helped spark 93L. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8517

1426. Patrap 08:53 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Might have to be a big one You should see the Filter Wrench Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1427. 47n91w 08:53 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Give me a month, and I'll be joining the 30-something group. Quoting StormW: No...I'm 30...something...something like 22 years past Member Since: Agosto 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 230

1429. Fl30258713 08:53 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Patrap: Im gonna go run out and get a New Oil Filter for the House. That's both sad and funny,lol. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 976

1430. MiamiHurricanes09 08:53 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: S FL will see heavy rain from this for sure. Watch the trough later this week guys for a possible turn as some models suggest. I can't wait to see the next GFS run. A possible second system could have a big impact on S FL next week. South Florida might get some rain, but that is only if 93L stays as a big cyclone and if it does a slightly more northerly track. What models are showing (don't know if they still are as I haven't checked them since yesterday) is the tropical wave right behind 93L around 55W. It doesn't seem to be a "big impact", just a sharply inverted wave, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it develop as the Bahamas region should grow favorable for development. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1431. xcool 08:53 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
OLD ?? Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1432. JDSmith 08:54 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Lower4216: Can anyone tell me how to adjust the size of the page? The text runs off the right side and I have to scoot the page over to read it. BE NICE! Hold control and wheel out your mouse. Wheel in to zoom. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 85

1433. fire635 08:54 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Jebekarue: Quoting leelee75k: a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages. Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of? thanks fix a flat, mosquito/bug repellant Toilet paper is always nice to have Member Since: Giugno 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 478

1434. will45 08:55 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Lower4216: Can anyone tell me how to adjust the size of the page? The text runs off the right side and I have to scoot the page over to read it. BE NICE! What browser do you use? Member Since: Luglio 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

1435. pottery 08:55 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Floodman: Maybe it does "pore" in this case...LOL I think you meant 'poor'... Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20707

1436. weatherman566 08:55 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
New Orleans, LA NWS discussion: .LONG TERM...THURSDAY-MONDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLANS WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY EXPECT AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE FOR POPS EACH DAY INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD AND MUGGY IN THE 70S. If that's the case, and 93L develops and moves into the Gulf, then we definately need to watch this closely. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

1437. stillwaiting 08:55 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
tonight 93L should get its act together and I wouldn't rule out a TD tomorrow morning,remember sheer is nill,pressures are dropping and SST's are feeling,HOT,HOT,HOT.....seriously,I'd be suprised if tonight we don't see some convective organization...... Member Since: Ottobre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

1438. lickitysplit 08:55 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Lower4216: BE NICE! Ya. Good luck with that. Member Since: Maggio 17, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 621

1442. GeoffreyWPB 08:56 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting GreenMe2225: 2015 utc images are out. 93l still intensifying. llc formation should still be tonight? I really do think the HH's will find TD1 tomorrow afternoon. Member Since: Settembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9110

1443. smmcdavid 08:56 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: If any state should be concerned with 93L (which at this point in time they shouldn't) it would be Texas. But we are still a loooooooooooong ways before I know that what I said will be accurate. Why is that? Why Texas more so than other gulf states? Just curious... Member Since: Settembre 20, 2005 Posts: 31 Comments: 2309

1444. kuppenskup 08:56 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: S FL will see heavy rain from this for sure. Watch the trough later this week guys for a possible turn as some models suggest. I can't wait to see the next GFS run. A possible second system could have a big impact on S FL next week. Any kind of a NW turn toward the SE fla coast would mean this system would have to cross over Cuba which at this speed would weaken the system at that time so I dont see much of an impact on South Fla from this system. The other system you are refering to is still in Limbo. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 404

1445. xcool 08:57 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
btwntx08 .THANKS Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1446. StormGoddess 08:57 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Back later to see what's going on. Have a great day, everybody. Member Since: Giugno 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 569

1447. clwstmchasr 08:57 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: S FL will see heavy rain from this for sure. Watch the trough later this week guys for a possible turn as some models suggest. I can't wait to see the next GFS run. A possible second system could have a big impact on S FL next week. "For sure". Way to early to say that. Look at the NWS comments out of Miami. They speak of the high building in westward. That would deflect anything away from Fl. Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2753

1448. fire635 08:58 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: South Florida might get some rain, but that is only if 93L stays as a big cyclone and if it does a slightly more northerly track. What models are showing (don't know if they still are as I haven't checked them since yesterday) is the tropical wave right behind 93L around 55W. It doesn't seem to be a "big impact", just a sharply inverted wave, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it develop as the Bahamas region should grow favorable for development. I think its a little to early to start saying which states are "safe" At this point ALL of the southern states need to stay alert. We all know that the models WILL change many times as the system organizes and as the conditions change. Member Since: Giugno 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 478

1449. weatherwatcher12 08:58 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: I really do think the HH's will find TD1 tomorrow afternoon. The hurricane hunters aren't going out tomorrow, they are gong on the 23rd. Member Since: Maggio 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

1450. MiamiHurricanes09 08:58 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting stillwaiting: tonight 93L should get its act together and I wouldn't rule out a TD tomorrow morning,remember sheer is nill,pressures are dropping and SST's are feeling,HOT,HOT,HOT.....seriously,I'd be suprised if tonight we don't see some convective organization...... It will take a longer time for a TD, imo. It still needs to develop a well-defined closed surface low, and that doesn't take a couple minutes since it doesn't have a well-defined low as of now. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1451. Lower4216 08:58 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Ya. Good luck with that. I think you're right! Member Since: Agosto 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 27

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