Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.

Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.

Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)

Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Categories: Flood Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1301 - 1351

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 — Blog Index

1301. biloxidaisy 08:15 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds: What's 100kt??I think baltimore is going in a drought.It looks like the poor trees are just dying.I'll take your rain anyday. About 115 mph, I think. Member Since: Agosto 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 243

1302. FLWeatherFreak91 08:15 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting StormW: No...I wanted to see who'd call me on it, and provide the information...sorta like a mini met lesson for the blog...Drak did a great job, as always! Hot towers develop in hurricanes...we don't even have a depression yet. Ah ok. That's what I thought. Member Since: Dicembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3516

1303. MiamiHurricanes09 08:15 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: So you are still saying that hot towers and overshooting tops are the same? Myself I would classify both as the same thing with the exception that a hot tower is on a much larger scale. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1307. gordydunnot 08:16 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
That's better. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1308. xcool 08:16 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

1310. extreme236 08:17 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Just a little "fun" fact, 2004's Alex when it was first designated a depression was only forecasted to reach a peak of 40kt. Of course, there was a lot of land interaction in the original forecast. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1311. katadman 08:17 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
I've been doing pretty well, Flood. Had a great time with my kids yesterday. And you? Even without a COC yet, I'm already convinced that we are going to see this invest (or the wave behind it)become ugly by next week. I'll certainly be watching at any rate. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081

1314. Floodman 08:19 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting CaneWarning: Yes, he certainly should have read all 26 pages worth of discussion before posting a question like that. J/k lol Nope, just the last one, where that discussion (which finished at the top of this page) started...LOL Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

1315. VAbeachhurricanes 08:19 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Any experts want to analyze what this means? Member Since: Settembre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4878

1316. CaribbeanIslandStorm 08:19 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting StormW: No...I wanted to see who'd call me on it, and provide the information...sorta like a mini met lesson for the blog...Drak did a great job, as always! Hot towers develop in hurricanes...we don't even have a depression yet. Do you think we will have one soon?

1317. StadiumEffect 08:20 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Link Interesting to note, the last couple frames suggest that 93L is beginning to influence the environment around it. It's also a fairly large disturbance, which could mean it might take a bit longer for it to close of a circulation (or at least obtain a tighter one which isn't broad in nature). Cloud pattern suggests continued organization, though deep convection has decreased in certain areas.

1322. GetReal 08:22 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Luglio 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8201

1324. weatherman566 08:23 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
I am very interested in 93L, but unlike everyone else, I am not buying the hype as of yet. Once a COC is found, then maybe the models will pick up on it more. With such a huge ridge in place over the southern states, I highly doubt a tropical system would get near the oil spill. The ridge in place is really strong, granted, things can change by the end of the week. IF anything, we are looking at a Mexico/Texas landfall. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

1325. VAbeachhurricanes 08:23 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Settembre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4878

1327. clwstmchasr 08:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Is the European model the ECMWF? How many times a day does it run? Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777

1328. connie1976 08:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Chsnnel 7 says that 93l will bring us rain here in South Florida....It doesn't seem that anyone is taking 93l seriously... Member Since: Settembre 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

1329. gordydunnot 08:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
StormW what do you think about the last couple of frames on the RGB loop at the NHC if you have been watching. Looks interesting to me especially the last two. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1331. sporteguy03 08:24 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
1315, Looks like the strongest vorticity is the wave behind 93L approaching the islands Member Since: Luglio 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4840

1333. JBirdFireMedic 08:26 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting connie1976: Am I the only 30 something? Nope ;) Member Since: Agosto 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

1334. AstroHurricane001 08:26 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Some convection is popping up over the Gulf oil spill: Member Since: Agosto 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2811

1336. MiamiHurricanes09 08:27 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting connie1976: Chsnnel 7 says that 93l will bring us rain here in South Florida....It doesn't seem that anyone is taking 93l seriously... I don't think they're looking at the models. If it was Phil Ferro I might pay more attention to it though. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 20002

1339. watchingnva 08:28 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting connie1976: Am I the only 30 something? i haven't made it there yet...at 27, i don't have long though...lol Member Since: Settembre 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

1340. kanc2001 08:28 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
you can surely tell when schools out for summer around here Lol :romperroom Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 181

1341. myway 08:29 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting connie1976: Chsnnel 7 says that 93l will bring us rain here in South Florida....It doesn't seem that anyone is taking 93l seriously... If channel 7 said it.....it is most likely wrong. Member Since: Maggio 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 443

1342. sporteguy03 08:29 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting clwstmchasr: Is the European model the ECMWF? How many times a day does it run? 2 times a day about every 12 hours. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4840

1343. StadiumEffect 08:29 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds: What hurricane's eye wall is that you have in your avatar?? This one is Katrina

1344. Floodman 08:29 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting katadman: I've been doing pretty well, Flood. Had a great time with my kids yesterday. And you? Even without a COC yet, I'm already convinced that we are going to see this invest (or the wave behind it)become ugly by next week. I'll certainly be watching at any rate. Had a great weekend...my kids are, for the msot part, in St Louis, but I still talked to them... As for 93L, we;re all watching very closely; you may be getting a call Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

1345. connie1976 08:30 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
miami, No, it wasn't Phil....it was the other guy....but I can't remember his name... Member Since: Settembre 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

1348. GeoffreyWPB 08:31 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILT FURTHER WESTWARD INCREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE E/SE FLOW AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF/WRN CARIB. THIS WILL CHANNEL ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. Miami NWS Discussion Member Since: Settembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9247

1349. Patrap 08:31 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Dave Bowman: You see, something's going to happen. You must leave. Heywood Floyd: What? What's going to happen? Dave Bowman: Something wonderful. Heywood Floyd: What? Dave Bowman: I understand how you feel. You see, it's all very clear to me now. The whole thing. It's WUnderful. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

1351. bjdsrq 08:32 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001: Some convection is popping up over the Gulf oil spill: BR The Gulf spill is way west of that mass of convection. It's ignorance like this which is keeping people away from the FL beaches still unaffected by anything related to oil. Member Since: Luglio 26, 2003 Posts: 3 Comments: 428

Viewing: 1301 - 1351

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters