Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Drakoen:

Safe to say that it's a wet one!

Quoting Patrap:
..Hi, Dozo..

"Oil-Zilla"

Category 10W-30 by Sunday.

TAKE ALL MODELS RIGTH NOW throw it out the DOOR

Quoting Levi32:


These swings should be fully expected. We can't expect the ECMWF to be consistent on anything other than development at this point. The ECMWF can't even initialize the center on every run without a center to initialize. It has the vort max doing different things on every run because the system hasn't figured itself out yet. It's a complex situation with 3 different systems in the mix.

I noticed you said earlier that the winds under 93L are still easterly, but cloud-wise, it looks like 93L is slowly but surely bending the flow around it. To the east, clouds are moving to the north and on the west side, the clouds are starting to take on a southerly hint.

Quoting Levi32:


Partly associated with an old low that got stuck over Venezuela and is now drifting north towards 93L's area. That's the other thing that's making the situation more complicated.

850MB vort is south and east of those islands

I think this might be a panhandle threat, DONT HIT THE PANIC BUTTON, im a nobody, just a wild GUESS

TD by tuesday AM

Quoting StormW:
Not good...hot towers

Storm, wouldn't you say there is a difference between "hot towers" and overshooting tops? Because I would tend to reserve the term "hot tower" to what occurs inside the eyewall of a strong hurricane due to the friction between two different area of the eyewall

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Is that a joke?

nop he is right hot towers

Western side is void of convection.

Look at how light the winds are in the western Caribbean. There is major potential for piling up of air here as the fast-moving trades slam the brakes. This increases surface convergence and forces the air to rise. The monsoon trough is also farther north than normal and is over the Caribbean rather than over Panama. This is another feature getting involved in this situation. It's complex, and is a big reason why the ECMWF is jumpy.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Storm, wouldn't you say there is a difference between "hot towers" and overshooting tops? Because I would tend to reserve the term "hot tower" to what occurs inside the eyewall of a strong hurricane due to the friction between two different area of the eyewall

Exactly.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Western side is void of convection.

that looks hrs old

93l could be a fla strom imo the models will go more east looks like 93l is starting to inch n ne at this hour

Quoting Tazmanian:



nop he is right hot towers

Had one of those this morning... too many tacos last night.

Quoting smarterthanyou:
a nice summer blow
wiping Florida away
could be a blessing

Why would you even say that? Anyway, until there is a COC, I am not relying much on what the models' solutions are to-date.

Quoting MississippiWx:


I noticed you said earlier that the winds under 93L are still easterly, but cloud-wise, it looks like 93L is slowly but surely bending the flow around it. To the east, clouds are moving to the north and on the west side, the clouds are starting to take on a southerly hint.

They are, but it usually starts at the mid-levels and that's what we're seeing. Surface winds may start to turn later, but I expect gradual, not rapid, organization of the system over the next couple days.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Western side is void of convection.

Still becoming organized, note the spiral banding starting to become evident. Loss in convection is expected as the day goes on.. no dry air or shear to impede its development.

ECMWF may have backed off some, but it still shows a strong TS towards Texas. NOGAPS is still with us.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Western side is void of convection.

It's because all of the convection at this time is only being supported by convergence. If the storm wants to develop, it better form a surface low before losing the convergence.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Actually, the more I think about it, planting kudzu all over Haiti might be a good idea. Plant trees and they'll just be chopped down for firewood.

Haha. Well, I hope that doesn't happen because the beautiful half of the island (Dominican Republic) doesn't need any kudzu all over its palm trees ;)

Quoting xcool:
TAKE ALL MODELS RIGTH NOW throw it out the DOOR

Why? Short-term none of the 4 develop this....GFS,CMC,NOGAPS and ECMWF don't for at least 3-4 days.

Quoting Tazmanian:




that looks hrs old

It's current.

Looks like it has about 25knt shear in the Northwest Carribean. This shear should relax some before 93 gets there. that is where I feel we will have T.S. status. Depending on where it crosses the yukatan will depend on how fast it gets its act together

Quoting IKE:


Why? Short-term none of the 4 develop this....GFS,CMC,NOGAPS and ECMWF don't for at least 3-4 days.



It's current.

well it may be but too me it looks hrs old

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
It's because all of the convection at this time is only being supported by convergence. If the storm wants to develop, it better form a surface low before losing the convergence.

A surface low should form within the next 12-36 hours.

Quoting StormW:
Not good...hot towers

Hot towers mean no so strong? Right, so you mean it's a good thing. Or am I once again totally off base.

Is south florida going to be hit by any storms by tihs time next week? :)

We go through this every year guys. Models were weak worth Katrina at first then then u all know what happened. Models r useless as of now

Quoting TexasGulf:


One of the most handy things is a small propane camping stove. You can either buy new or get an old used one on Craigslist. That's perfect for cooking meals for a small family.

If you've got a generator, remember to get a small window air conditioner. It can be used and doesn't have to look good, just be sure it works. If you lose electricity for several days, you can pick one room in your house that you can isolate for air conditioning.

If you live in a neighborhood and have your own yard... Tiki torches and fuel is a great thing to have. Neighborhoods can get really dark at night with no electricity. After Rita, I had 4 tiki's in the yard at night. A tiki torch in front yard and one in back provides some light, lets people know you're home and keeps the looters away. They can't see if you're sitting in the window watching or not, or if you're armed or not. They won't want to find out.

Lastly... take pictures of your home before the storm comes. Digital pictures will have the date & time on them. Take pictures of the exterior on all 4 sides, then take pictures of each room in the house. It doesn't take as long as you'd think. That will help enoromously when dealing with some insurance adjusters.

After the storm, it is typical not to be able to call out using your cell phone. Sometimes they shut down non-emergency calls. Remember... even if you can't call out, you can often send text messages to let people know you're OK.

If you choose to evacuate, bring a road map of your county that shows all the side streets. In case you need to get back in, national guard normally only blocks off the main roads and highways. You can sneak in past them, even if turned away at first, by taking the small residential side streets. Once you're in the county, they aren't authorized to kick you back out... even if they saw you sneak by on the side streets. The road map may also save you 1-2 hours during evacuation if you take roads other than the highways for as long as possible.

I would also add getting an old style phone that plugs into the wall. After Charlie in Punta Gorda this was the only phone in the house that worked. After 3 days of silence I heard the phone ringing in my daughters bed room. All other rooms had wireless phones and ran on electricity. You can get one of these phones for between 5 and 10 bucks.

Quoting superweatherman:



AND HERE WE GO!

in joy the 24hr banned


During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban



see you in 24hrs

Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
I think this might be a panhandle threat, DONT HIT THE PANIC BUTTON, im a nobody, just a wild GUESS

the panhandle likes storms whose name starts with a vowel...agnes 1972...erin 1995...ivan 2004...opal 1995...just saying

Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
Looks like it has about 25knt shear in the Northwest Carribean. This shear should relax some before 93 gets there. that is where I feel we will have T.S. status. Depending on where it crosses the yukatan will depend on how fast it gets its act together

Really? on the 1500 utc shear map it looks like 80% of the storm is in an area of <10 kt shear.

Quoting StormGoddess:
Looks like this is the deal at the moment, imo.

give 92L a rest its gone and that no back up that is 93L

Quoting 7544:
93l could be a fla strom imo he models will go more east lloks like 93l is starting to inch n ne at this hour

Maybe the Fla Keys but no further North than that.

Quoting Levi32:


They are, but it usually starts at the mid-levels and that's what we're seeing. Surface winds may start to turn later, but I expect gradual, not rapid, organization of the system over the next couple days.

I hate these systems that take 2-3 days to organize just into a TD! They wear and tear on my brain. LOL.

Despite its improvement in the cloud pattern, it still doesn't look like it's in a big hurry to organize from top to bottom.

Quoting IKE:

lol the wave be hide 93L has red in it

TOTALLY different setup than Katrina. Models are not useless now. GEEZ

I think what ever was left of 92l has been messing with the west side of 93l that is why I think wait until tonight.

I created this myself, learning is fun, when used with weather..

12z RAOB from Curacao...

I did not know if it had been brought up, but JB upped his forecast today. Urrgh!

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/33013/bastardi_ups_hurricane_season.asp