Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 02:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010 | +6 |



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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oops, not good!
That is a good point, is it really supposed to take 10 days for this system to make landfall from the SE Caribbean?
Charley made it there in 4, is steering really that weak?
who cares if its an invest or not.. tropical cyclones are not machines that once are activated invest it automatically has to be tracked, and if its not , you can't track it.. They can spin up out of nothing.. I have been tracking for a while.. and I can tell you even the faintest spin in an area of low shear with high water and moisture content can turn into something.. I'm not saying 92L is going to turn into anything, Im just saying it's developing some convection.
June 21, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE Tropical wave just west of Jamaica
Comment
The Tropical Wave will move away from the island by tonight.
A Trough should linger across the central Caribbean.
TODAY'S FORECAST
This Morning… Partly cloudy especially over western parishes.
This Afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms
across most parishes.
Tonight… Partly cloudy.
3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Tue… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly
over central and western parishes.
Wed/Thurs… Periods of showers and thunderstorm across the island.
Regionally… Tropical Waves and troughs moving across
the Caribbean accompanied by large areas of showers and thunderstorms.
pef
Question for those who actually understand all this: so the reason 93L probably won't develop until later this week is because the wind shear is still high now, but forecasted to decrease? Be nice to me please... :)
TIA!
93L should move W to WNW into central america by Thursday or get intrained into the developing low behind it (if there is 1).
Ok that is fine, I am just saying that with as fast as this blog is going to be going; 99% of the people will be talking about 93L. Any post about 92L just would seem out of place is all.
That low must be very broad and quite shallow as there is nothing at 850 mb or above.
My bad.
I am having the same thought as you,,, if everything is in 93L's favor, should it develop quickly?
Link
This is a separate entity; what's left of 92L is north of this invest
I bet the people of Montana said the same thing. They don't get as much as Florida.
It is complying with the John Hope rule and is waiting to get past 75 West LOL
Thanks...oh my.
(Late yesterday)
Link
If doom-casting surprises you... you haven't been around long. This is nothing.
151
WHXX01 KWBC 211310
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1310 UTC MON JUN 21 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1200 100622 0000 100622 1200 100623 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 67.2W 13.7N 69.3W 14.4N 71.6W 15.2N 73.9W
BAMD 13.0N 67.2W 13.8N 69.3W 14.5N 71.5W 15.3N 73.7W
BAMM 13.0N 67.2W 13.6N 69.4W 14.3N 71.9W 15.1N 74.3W
LBAR 13.0N 67.2W 14.0N 69.6W 15.2N 72.2W 16.2N 74.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1200 100624 1200 100625 1200 100626 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 76.1W 16.8N 80.1W 17.8N 83.3W 19.1N 85.7W
BAMD 15.9N 75.7W 16.7N 78.9W 17.6N 81.7W 18.6N 84.1W
BAMM 15.7N 76.6W 16.6N 80.3W 17.4N 83.1W 18.5N 85.4W
LBAR 16.9N 77.1W 18.0N 81.1W 19.7N 84.0W 22.2N 85.5W
SHIP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS
DSHP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 67.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 60.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Yada,yada..yada
Shear is low but, it has a long way to go as there is hardly any spin even at 850mb (5000ft above sea level). One could argue it was tagged a little premature.
If it is dead, then why is NHC still referencing 92L on Floater 1 sat? This seems like the same system to me.
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.
Look you... I'm asking a question to try to understand. I don't need smart ass remarks. Thanks!
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