Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

93L is lookin too good.

Station: TNCC (Hato Airport, Curacao, Netherlands Antilles)
WMO ident: 78988
Latitude: 12.20
Longitude: -68.97
Elevation: 67.00

Circulation tightening on visible.

Quoting twhcracker:
here is some good hurricane advice: never ever never ever NEVER go to walmart within 24 hours of estimated hurricane arrival. unless you have a flak jacket and helmet and knee pads. and nothing you need will be there anyway. not one loaf of bread or battery or bottle of water in the whole place. and people will be acting like godzilla has walked ashore running wild eyed down the aisles knocking you out of the way. if you realize theres some little extra you need, go to a dollar general in your immediate area. do not, i repeat, do not go to any walmart when a storm is headed there. walmartians go berserk pre hurricane.

Same with this blog too... people go berserk over an Invest. LOL

Quoting kmanislander:


Precisely. See post 708

Where you live is also a big factor. If you are on the same grid as a hospital, emergency services building etc. you will come up quicker. A friend was out of power for 12 days after Wilma, however 2 blocks from him (on the hospital grid) had it back in 2 days.

Beginning to get some banding, indicating that the low is developing.

Just because the favorable conditions are there, does not mean a system will MAX out its potential and take full advantage of it

I think claiming this will be a CAT 4 in the Gulf at this point is being too much of an alarmist

Quoting MississippiWx:
Geez, this blog is moving way too fast.

Levi, Drak, Storm, Kman:

Try zooming in on the NASA site on visible. Look at 14N 69W. Nice circulation tightening up there.

Yes, it is starting to wrap up and during the heat of the day which is never a good sign.

Quoting twhcracker:
here is some good hurricane advice: never ever never ever NEVER go to walmart within 24 hours of estimated hurricane arrival. unless you have a flak jacket and helmet and knee pads. and nothing you need will be there anyway. not one loaf of bread or battery or bottle of water in the whole place. and people will be acting like godzilla has walked ashore running wild eyed down the aisles knocking you out of the way. if you realize theres some little extra you need, go to a dollar general in your immediate area. do not, i repeat, do not go to any walmart when a storm is headed there. walmartians go berserk pre hurricane.

In my experience, Wal-Mart is like that all the time. That's why I don't go there. LOL

WE HAVE CODE ORANGE 30%>

I have the surface lows center around 13.5N,67W IMO

A hurricane's "hot towers" can increase its intensity by adding power to boost the storm's heat engine. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations of these phenomena using a very fine temporal resolution. They have combined this new simulation data with satellite observations to study the innerworking of the "hot towers" in never-before-seen detail.

The latest CMC shows a double whammy for the gulf, including the smack to S Florida someone mentioned earlier @ 850mb vorticity in 144hrs. This is however, an early run, as w/o a closed low @surface... center fix, and direction of movement is preliminary.

Good afternoon!
93L looks to be having good time!

Interestingly, surface winds in Trinidad were Westerly between 9 am and noon, including strong gusts in south Trinidad.
Westerlies are not common here, and have resulted today from the 'feeder band' of 93L overhead here this morning.

enter 'piarco' in the weather search box, top of this page for Trinidad weather.

Back later

Quoting TexasGulf:


Good analogy. Let's just run with that thought.

If a hurricane & storm surge comes in and leaves a 6' oil line on your house, then obviously you had wind damage, flooding and oil. When the water recedes, everything from that 6' line down to grade should have some amount of oil residue.

Carpet, sheetrock, floor tile, furniture all will need to be replaced anyway. Chances are that all windows will need to be replaced. Exterior siding will either need replaced or blasted, primed and painted. Even brick will need to be water blasted to clean.

BP can argue that the carpet, interior furnishings, etc... would need to be replaced anyway under flood insurance. Fed can argue that the damage wouldn't have been so bad without the oil residue. People without flood insurance (there are still those who don't) can argue that flooding caused part of their damage, but flooring & furniture might have been cleaned & salvageable if it weren't for the oil.

Normally, storm surge or wind is a cut & dried case. Either such-n-such was damaged and needs replaced or it is salvageable. Replacement is covered under flood insurance. However, the argument comes in that "part" of the reason it needs replacing is because it's covered in oil. It "might" have been salvageable if not for that.

That's where the lines will get blurred. Would your fence need to be replaced anyway due to surge & wind... or partially because it is coated with oil? If that's the case, why would your insurance company agree to pay for BP's portion of the damages? It sounds like a small question, but we're potentially talking about $500 Million or more in claims that could be filed against BP by insurance companies claiming partial liability on their part. The law would be on the insurance company's side due to partial responsibility by BP. Even if only 10% or 5% of the damages are from oil... that's a LOT of money insurance companies won't have to pay out. BP will not be pleased about paying for something that would have needed replaced anyway regardless of the oil.

In many different instances, from marshland cleanup to residential neighborhoods to businesses and public infrastructure... there will be claims galore if there is an oil sheen question. BP's liability in this is really a gray area.

Okay, now we're into what I do for a living...

Given flood damage along with wind AND oil:

If there is coverage for flood, the carrier would cover the damage (say a 6' interior flood line) as the carrier could not make an argument for subrogation or co-liability due to oil. The oil was there, but the water carried it in and the materials would have required replacement anyway. BP would be off the hook, as replacing the effected materials would mitigate the oil damage as well as the water damage. Water dmaaged drywall needs to be replaced, regardless of whether there is oil with it or not; the framing, on the other hand, would be a different question, though it would be highly likely that the framing could be cleaned of oil and that would be BPs responsibility (flooded framing typically requires drying and then light abrasion to clean up any biological contaminants).

If there is no flood coverage, BP is fully on the hook and the carrier off as the oil came in on an uncovered COL (cause of loss).

As most named hazard policies do not allow for the cleaning or repair of anything landscaping (other than trees fallen on structure or blocking access to the property) the contaminants in the yard deposited during the water receding would be completely on BP; the oil would not be there if it were not for BP and any argument to the contrary would be easily circumvented in this way:

The hurricane caused storm surge, which caused the flooding. In any other circumstance, other than the deposit of excess salt on the ground, the receding flood waters would leave the yard unscathed and not make the property hazardous for occupation. The oil, on the other hand, caused by the spill, which was caused by BP, makes the property unlivable until such time as the chemical pollutants can be removed, hence the clean up, the additional living expenses etc would all be the liability of BP.

Now, in the event of a wind only loss, BP's liability would be limited to decontaminantion of anything effected by the oil itself; it remains to be seen how far inland oil spray will be carried by hurricane force winds, but the concensus is a pretty fair distance...

BP is praying NOTHING makes it into the GOM this season; their liability will increase exponentionally if a storm were make landfall in any populated area adjacent to the spill, but their liability and outlay will be less for wind bourne oil as opposed to water bourne oil...the difference there is the difference between painting something as opposed to soaking that item in paint.

Quoting RecordSeason:
TWC is a joke.

Carl Parker just said there's "very high wind shear" in the environment.

What the hell are they looking at? Shear is obviously lowest it's been in weeks, for the entire basin...

I keep these posted

Quoting MississippiWx:
Geez, this blog is moving way too fast.

Levi, Drak, Storm, Kman:

Try zooming in on the NASA site on visible. Look at 14N 69W. Nice circulation tightening up there.

Looks like a mid-level vortex left over from collapsing convection. That is not likely where the LLC will form.

wow really good divergence, no wonder it is holding those storms so nicely

Quoting Levi32:
Beginning to get some banding, indicating that the low is developing.

Circulation, possibly at the mid-levels is out in front of the "L" on your map. Center could be further west a tad.

Invaluable items after a hurricane if you have a small child: diapers and diaper rash meds. During Hurricane Katrina, we stocked up on everything, except the above mentioned. Sigh . . .

Quoting RecordSeason:
TWC is a joke.

Carl Parker just said there's "very high wind shear" in the environment.

What the hell are they looking at? Shear is obviously lowest it's been in weeks, for the entire basin...

It's not worth watching TWC anymore.

Quoting Levi32:
Beginning to get some banding, indicating that the low is developing.

That is exactly where the low is

,

I think TD1 will be designated tomorrow afternoon while the HH's are in there.

93L blog,all are welcome!!

Hello everybody!! it seems that we are going to have a very busy!! season.Just wondering if this system once it develop and I believe it will be soon looking at the satellite presentation.The CMC model shows the system making a right turn and coming to South Florida,also couple of other models shows this future storm coming to our area here in South Florida,any comments or thoughts about this??.Thanks

There may be a flight into 93L on 6/23 16 N and 77W. How much warmer is the oil than the sea surface?? No one seems to know?? Oil front property for all along the GCoast!!

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think TD1 will be designated tomorrow afternoon while the HH's are in there.

HH are not scheduled to be there til Wednesday

Quoting Ameister12:

It's not worth watching TWC anymore.

You know they'll have their satellite trucks ready to roll as soon as they know where one is going. Cantore is probably lurking in here right now, so that he knows what is going on LOL

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think TD1 will be designated tomorrow afternoon while the HH's are in there.

Are they flying in tomorrow? I thought it was Wednesday.

5 year lurker here finially decided to join. Thanks for a your awesome insight.

DMIN, and then DMAX tonight..

organization throughout the day, strengthening throughout the night

Quoting Levi32:


Looks like a mid-level vortex left over from collapsing convection. That is not likely where the LLC will form.

I figured that was the case...That's why I tried to get your attention. Satellite presentation is improving rapidly and the banding features are beautiful to look at on visible.

Quoting IKE:
12Z GFDL

Wow, doesn't do anything with it. Strange considering in the hour I was away from the satellite images, the thing got significantly better looking.

Quoting IKE:
12Z GFDL

I see nothing.

Repost

Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.

Climo tracks for 93L: