New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:50 PM GMT del 21 Giugno 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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3177. Levi32
Quoting Acemmett90:

could be one of these guys


Uh no....84 hours is 3 days out....those things are 10 days out.

I was talking about the western Caribbean.
Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686
Quoting Grothar:


That is a sobering thought! Thanks for sharing that with us. LOL
Just in case you haven't noticed , all of his posts are reflections of someone else's thoughts or opinions.
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3169. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not as a met. He changed his major to Political Science I think.


That is a sobering thought! Thanks for sharing that with us. LOL
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3167. Levi32
Broad low on the GFS in 84 hours.

Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686
When is D-Max?
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Quoting TampaSpin:


LOL.......Actually he will be a senior next school year and i posted it wrong.....IT was FAU i believe.....LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOL.......Actually he will be a senior next school year and i posted it wrong.....IT was FAU i believe.....LOL
there goes that school's credibility...
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Not much in the way of shear or dry air in the vicinity of 93L:


At least not as far as RUC can tell...

The text in the plot below represents where soundings actually happened at 0 Z.



Is RUC right? I dunno.
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3160. Grothar
Quoting Acemmett90:

hey the wave at 25 east is going to be somthing to watch


Yeah, missed that one.
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93L is looking weak at the moment. If it develops at all it won't likely be until Wed. or Thurs at the earliest. The GFS has been very good with the invests so far this year. When the GFS is not showing ANYTHING there is a reason for that. I am not sold yet. It will be interesting to see what the 00Z runs show.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Just to let everyone KNow, but JFV is getting his degree at FMU!
Not as a met. He changed his major to Political Science I think.
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looks like there is a little spin in 93L now??
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3155. Levi32
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Whaattt happend to 93L?


Nothing. It's still there.
Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686
Sounding from San Juan...that's wet. Shear, there, at least, is evident:

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Has HurricaneJunky commented recently? Wink, Wink:)
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Not much in the way of shear or dry air in the vicinity of 93L:

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3146. Halyn
It has been interesting tonight .. I am looking forward to my second season w/ya'll .. Yell real loud and wake me up if anything really exciting happens in the next 10 hours. G'night from your BA in Theology/Psychology blog lurker .. :D
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3145. xcool
lmao taz
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3143. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:
Getting a few more thunderstorms, but not impressed yet.



The low might materialize farther north than the models thought.
Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26686
mode runs are out the window in tell we get a TD
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Another busy night, and I am expecting 93L to pan out with what everyone's saying. Speaking of Grothar, I know who he really is.
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Have to catch up - terrible car accident in the front of our house --- turned out we knew the people in both cars -- thank god no one was seriously hurt.
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Quoting Acemmett90:

we 93L, the wave at 53 east and
this little bugger at 25 east




yuper
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3136. Grothar
Getting a few more thunderstorms, but not impressed yet.

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Quoting thelmores:


Fuel Management University????
FMU


LOL.......Actually he will be a senior next school year and i posted it wrong.....IT was FAU i believe.....LOL
Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting thelmores:


Taz, have you been practicing your spelling? That was extraordinary! LOL




thanks lol
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Quoting Acemmett90:

oh screw u that was me and i got rid of it

No not that I hate you personally or your commets but its just the avatar that creeped me out a bit lol.
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3111 atmo, thanks again i will work on it. =)
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Quoting Tazmanian:




yes whats


and if you all want too met and talk you guys can do it when there not any thing going on this is a weather blog not a met blog


Weather and Meteorology are the same thing

Talking about Meteorology Degree programs is most certainly never off topic
Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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