Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Drakoen:


I don't think so considering this big trough shown on both the ECMWF and the GFS

Obviously the trough wasn't near that strong just one run before. There is some iffyness on the model as to how weak the ridge will be. Besides, the ECMWF having all its ensemble members to the west of the operational says something.

Below is what i posted on my site...NO WISHCASTING AT ALL....just facts as i see them...

11:30 AM on June 21, 2010
Invest 93L has be declared by the NHC. The potential for a storm to form from this Invest is very high and very alarming as Models are starting to show a very strong system in the GOM by Saturday or Sunday. Not only is the Waters very warm above normal, but the Sheer forecast for this time period is NO Sheer to only some sheer as high less than 15kts. A NAMED STORM IS COMING! Currently, there is little Vorticity in association with 93L but, Divergence and Convergence is on the rise so Voriticity will be coming as the Conditions for development with no Sheer is increasing by each passing minute. Without sounding like a WishCaster, but this has the potential to become not only our first named storm of the year but, also our first Major Hurricane of the year! JUST SAYIN!

Also, we need to watch the Bahamas also, for a possible spinner as well to possibly come together as we might just have 2 at the same time coming together. DAM!

Quoting twhcracker:


yes human nature, especially since we are all poised for a nightmare season that is not yet begun but due any minute...

TW --- are you in the P-cola area?

Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
My forecast for 93L is:
80mph hurricane
landfall at yucatan(55% probablity) or:
100mph hurricane
Texas landfall(40% probablity)

My Forecast:
1)There are 10,000 blog entries prior to 93L becoming a named storm.
2)1200 bloggers will be poofed prior to any landfall.
3)1200 posts will state a Cat 5 is comming to S. Florida.
4) Some People will start boarding up within 3 days.
5) 600 posts will call this a fish storm, even though unlikely.
6) Someone will claim 100 degree waters in the Gulf.
7) 500 posts will have graphics of prior storms, 10 will claim Andrew is comming.
8) Several bloggers will tell you they know it is comming to them because the racoons are behaving oddly.
9) Rapidly intensifying will be stated 300 times.
10) I have a cruise on the 24th, should I go.
11) I'm in Iceland, any chance the outerbands affect me.
12) This thing is moving Southwesr over the last 10 minutes, I know it, will be stated a few times.
Just my predictions.
5)

Quoting Drakoen:


I don't think so considering this big trough shown on both the ECMWF and the GFS

Joe Bastardi seems to believe a ridge will build and curve the storm westward into LA or TX.

Appears HWRF track is more northerly





Cue the models are no good initially posts.

Quoting Levi32:


Obviously the trough wasn't near that strong just one run before. There is some iffyness on the model as to how weak the ridge will be. Besides, the ECMWF having all its ensemble members to the west of the operational says something.

And obviously a trough would make more sense considering climatology. And obviously the other models feature the same mid latitude trough.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Are you the NEW JFV.....LoL....just kidding!

wow, lol, no dont even joke about that. Anyway I am asking for calm, JFV would already be packing up Abuela/Grandma and evacuating.

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts

Quoting Drakoen:


And obviously a trough would make more sense considering climatology. And obviously the other models feature the same mid latitude trough.

But then we just had the hottest week of June on record in the southeast US. The ridge is big and strong and isn't going away. That trough is riding the northern periphery far to the north. It may not be able to recurve it that much. I'd like to see where the 12z ECMWF has it.

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Anyone have me on ignore...

If they did, how could they answer you? lol

Think about that for a second lol

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Appears HWRF track is more northerly





Cue the models are no good initially posts.

Notice there's no Hurricane, it looks like the HWRF is taking the GFS route, weak storm to Florida.

Quoting Drakoen:


And obviously a trough would make more sense considering climatology. And obviously the other models feature the same mid latitude trough.

The stronger it becomes, the more Northward He goes!

Quoting gator23:

wow, lol, no dont even joke about that. Anyway I am asking for calm, JFV would already be packing up Abuela/Grandma and evacuating.

LMAO

Quoting Levi32:


Obviously the trough wasn't near that strong just one run before. There is some iffyness on the model as to how weak the ridge will be. Besides, the ECMWF having all its ensemble members to the west of the operational says something.

The ensembles have a weaker solution which is why it does not feel the weakness, both the Euro and GFS show a trough breaking down the ridge and if the system is a strong one, it will feel it

DARK GREEN MEANING T.S/

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Anyone have me on ignore...

I do, I can't see anything you write.

Quoting TampaSpin:


The stronger it becomes, the more Northward He goes!

Quoting Ivanhater:


The ensembles have a weaker solution which is why it does not feel the weakness, both the Euro and GFS show a trough breaking down the ridge and if the system is a strong one, it will feel it

Exactly

0z GFS ensembles by Day 6 already have the ridge pushing the trough out of the way and building back in over the east. 6 days isn't enough time for 93L to reach the north gulf coast.

Quoting gator23:

wow, lol, no dont even joke about that. Anyway I am asking for calm, JFV would already be packing up Abuela/Grandma and evacuating.

LOL.....Ya!

Quoting leelee75k:
Thanks patrap, that's exactly the type of things I'm looking for, didn't think of either one of those to have.

anyone else?

Solar battery chargers/rechargeable batteries and battery operated fans to help withstand the miserable heat and humidity that follow the storm.

Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks

If expecting a power outage of a few days and staying at home, we collect empty plastic gallon jugs, cut off the tops, fill with water and freeze. This gives us block ice that will help keep refrigerator cool, and doubles as containers to hold water as the ice begins to melt.

Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS

Wow I do not like what the NOGAPS does with the system behind 93L; it doesn't really do much with 93L itself though

Quoting Ivanhater:


The ensembles have a weaker solution which is why it does not feel the weakness, both the Euro and GFS show a trough breaking down the ridge and if the system is a strong one, it will feel it

True but few realize how monstrous this ridge really is, and the trough may not be staying there long enough to recurve it all the way to Alabama/Florida.

you guys are awesome, thanks for thinking of things I didn't think of. clothespins and clothesline definitely going on my list as well as the rest of the suggestions. Unfortunately we don't have a generator and I don't think one is in our budget for this year.

tampaspin, how do you store extra propane tanks? I thought it was unsafe to store them indoors and worry about leaving them outdoors during the storm.

I'm prepared with all the basics, pretty much have everything that listed on your normal hurricane supply list, I was just looking for things that we forget or overlook.

Quoting Levi32:


But then we just had the hottest week of June on record in the southeast US. The ridge is big and strong and isn't going away. That trough is riding the northern periphery far to the north. It may not be able to recurve it that much. I'd like to see where the 12z ECMWF has it.

I disagree

Quoting Hurricanes101:
You guys want to know where 93L is going? Here is a map I created yesterday for you guys



*rolls eyes

Oh so that is where the OIL SLICK is going?

Quoting earthlydragonfly:



Oh so that is where the OIL SLICK is going?

I forgot to add my LOL on that comment

Outside of the storm that started with an "A" that we are all familiar with....was anyother storm that was the first named storm a Major Hurricane.......i don't know of any off the top of my head without doing research?

This will be a very interesting one to track because I could see things working out either way

We wont know until we go on in time whether the ridge or the trof become the main steering mechanism of this system

Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS

That strong system the NOGAPS develops appears to come from this wave.



It makes it atleast a TD in 12 hours, and a Hurricane in 36. Something I don't buy.

Quoting Drakoen:


I disagree

Notice how much weaker the trough is on the GFS.

Still 10 days out the trough could be flatter and the ridge could be stronger....it's not wise to make track forecasts yet. I'm just voicing the other side right now. West gulf should be watching this closely as well. I want to see what the 12z Euro shows.

I do not like the looks of 93L. This disturbance has everything going in it's favor and low shear combined with the VERY HIGH TCHP levels is what scares me the most. With that kind of TCHP theres a chance this thing can bomb out in the western caribbean quite easily.

Audrey June 57

Formed June 25, 1957 (1957-06-25)
Dissipated June 29, 1957 (1957-06-30)
Highest
winds
145 mph (230 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 946 mbar (hPa; 27.94 inHg)
Fatalities 416[1] direct
Damage $147 million (1957 USD)
$1.1 billion (2010 USD)
Areas
affected Eastern Texas, Louisiana, parts of the South Central United States

Hurricane Audrey was the first major hurricane of the 1957 Atlantic hurricane season. Audrey was the only storm to reach Category 4 status in June. A powerful hurricane, Audrey caused catastrophic damage across eastern Texas and western Louisiana. It then affected the South Central United States as a powerful extratropical storm.

Quoting RecordSeason:

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

1) Definitely a good radio and several changes of batteries for it.

You are going to want to know what is going on after the power goes out, which is often several hours before the worst weather even hits. During and after a storm, you also want to know things like: Is there a levee breach? How close is River X to record flood stage and do you still have time to leave if needed? Is there another storm brewing? How to get help or unique emergency supplies as needed, etc.

2) Video camera to document your belongings and film the storm and aftermath.

3) Huge amounts of bottled water. Cannot over do it here really. I can tell you given the temps in the south central u.s. you'd want many, many gallons of water per person. If the power goes out for a day or two, you are going to be guzzling water like mad. If it's out longer, well, you get the picture.

4) Do not attempt to ride out a category 3 or greater storm in anything less than a post 1992 brick home with solid plywood sheeting in the walls(most contractors still do not put this), and with shutters. Tape is useless.

Also, Ice Ice and more Ice. After Charlie, it was no where to be found. And, a car charger for cell phones

Plenty of time to watch. The canadian has the same idea as the gfs and euro with the ridge breaking down, we will see

Quoting Funkadelic:


And what does this mean to you as far as track goes? I know it's hard because we have no defined LLC but we should within 36 hours.

That's right and we shouldn't be making track or intensity forecasts right now for the gulf. A stronger ridge and a weaker trough would mean a more WNW track towards the western gulf rather than the eastern gulf.

Quoting TampaSpin:
Outside of the storm that started with an "A" that we are all familiar with....was anyother storm that was the first named storm a Major Hurricane.......i don't know of any off the top of my head without doing research?

Major Hurricane Alex off the Carolinas in 2004.

Quoting TampaSpin:
Outside of the storm that started with an "A" that we are all familiar with....was anyother storm that was the first named storm a Major Hurricane.......i don't know of any off the top of my head without doing research?

Audry?

Quoting lickitysplit:
Pretty disturbing video from the GOM

Yes. I hope BP goes out of business for this. With record profits last year it appears unlikely though.