Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

When will Dr. M have the next blog update?

Thanks!
Tracey

Quoting sailingallover:
THIS is the difference between a COC and a WAVE.

That is not where the area of vorticity is. The yellow patch is south of Hispaniola and extends slightly south-eastward.

Yea IKE i know what you mean asking for 2 storms is a lot because we cant even get one LOL

Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Guys, you are gonna love this one...8:30am radio newscast for local station..."There is a tropical disturbance in the East Carribean that National Weather Service says could intensify over the next 48 hours as it moves TOWARDS MEXICO."
Welcome to Florida weather casting for the tourists. I know a couple of runs on the 2am models showed it going towards the Yucatan, but a couple recurved it back towards Florida. With this kind of weather reporting, no wonder so many in Florida get caught at the last minute unprepared.

I live in Deerfield Beach and I think they are morons just looking for a story. The news stations are monitoring it and not getting to hyped up about it. The fact is that until a LLC develops, the models are totally wishy washy. For Florida there are lots of obstacles to overcome but for the Gulf, it just has to make it through the Yucatan Channel but only time will tell.

Quoting IKE:
12Z SHIPS aims it to the northern Yucatan, then the southern GOM/Bay of Campeche.

The SHIPS is an intensity model.. It received its "track" forecast from BAMM.. Check just beneath "Heat Content" and above "Individual Contributions to Intensity Change"

93L is slowly gaining spin as shown in the satellite loops, MIMIC-TPW, and a recent cimss 850mb vort product.

Jeff got a shout out in the St. Pete Times:

Link

Quoting stillwaiting:
vorticity over the antellies looks pretty impressive at 850mb...

Shows up on the ASCAT too, NOGAPS had it developing, and it had great convection...yesterday.
The ups and downs are really extreme so far this year.. one day it looks great the next where did it go...but this one has rotation and you can always get convection out of 30deg water....

Quoting HurricaneFCast:

The SHIPS is an intensity model.. It received its "track" forecast from BAMM.. Check just beneath "Heat Content" and above "Individual Contributions to Intensity Change"

Shows it moving 11 mph....slowing down to 6 mph on the end of the 120 hour run. That might get it up here in about 3 weeks.

*considers an early morning bag of popcorn*

Quoting TampaSpin:


Good analysis there CT...with that.....a concensus of models develop something! To the degree of that something is the uncertain. But, something will be forming one would have to conclude if you believe in models.

No one in particular, but some people tend to when the models don't develop anything to say nothings going to happen (*cough* TWC *cough*) yet when a storm isn't all to organized like 93L is, those same people say its going to get killed by some magical and non-exist barrier of 100 knot shear and the models are totally wrong. Not referring to anyone on WU. Its all about what you see and what you read, I personally know that when the models are all so strong on developing a system chances are on it developing. 94L in 2008 that became Dolly was very similar to the way this system has played out so far.

Quoting IKE:


Shows it moving 11 mph....slowing down to 6 mph on the end of the 120 hour run.

Yep, the heading, track, and speed are all borrowed from the BAMM.

I know we are tracking 93L but I found this interesting from Paul Douglas, a pioneer in new weather tracking technology:
During a wild 8 hour period last Thursday, The NWS counted a total of 17 tornadoes in MN including 3 rare EF-4 twisters, nearly a mile wide, winds over 175 mph. During an average year 1 to 2% of all tornadoes touching down on America are EF-4 or stronger.
Doppler radar has cut down the death toll, but it's not perfect. BTW, radar was developed in WWII to help the allies track ships & planes. Radar operators were plagued by interference, strange smudges that made it tougher to track their military targets. Those annoying blips turned out to be rain & snow - it quickly dawned on meteorologists that they had stumbled upon a new and revolutionary tool to track weather.

Quoting IKE:


Shows it moving 11 mph....slowing down to 6 mph on the end of the 120 hour run. That might get it up here in about 3 weeks.

*considers an early morning bag of popcorn*

You and your popcorn! How much salt are you gonna put on it today??? LOL

Oh, and gd morning Ike and Tampa. Ike has oil washed up on your beaches yet?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Oh, and gd morning Ike and Tampa. Ike has oil washed up on your beaches yet?

Yes.

Quoting weatherwatcher12:

That is not where the area of vorticity is. The yellow patch is south of Hispaniola and extends slightly south-eastward.

O Hispaniola is the DR and Hatia.. that big island at the top of the picture.
Yellow patch on what? An IR sat pic?
The Yellow patch on the ASCAT is cape effect winds.
NHC has the waves along 71-72 west which is all on the the pic I posted.
So I'm wondering what you are looking at
WAIT you mean this
The 850 Vorticity in the CIMSS pic
The "yellow" in that pic is right on top of the black line I drew showing the location of the wave at 70W

Quoting btwntx08:
new blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wait we are about to break 4000!! What's the record?
for June? For June 22? This should be being kept track of!!!!!!

Wow...new update. Thx. Dr M.

I feel really weird now....i just refreshed and there was a new update...I swear!! And now there isn't.