Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 04:24 PM GMT del 11 Giugno 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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4251. Cavin Rawlins 03:42 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
I would advise anyone wanting to know more of the upper environment that is expected as it nears the islands to take a look at the GFS 200 mb analysis. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4252. txjac 03:42 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
Thanks again. Member Since: Aprile 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1614

4253. stillwaiting 03:42 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
Quoting CosmicEvents: 12 hours ago many were screaming, "it's a TD!", or it will be a TD for sure by 11AM. Now, it's 11AM and it's not a TD, and we still have many apoplectic with the NHC refusal to call it a TD yet. This will go on all day, and night, and perhaps into tomorrow. . . We see this every year. Every "L" that comes down the pike and the board starts screaming TD. Why don't we start naming these hybrid systems, when they're in the stage betwen "L" and TD, let's call them a WUWU. This is WUWU1. Yea I was saying that,and... I stick by me story!!!!,I live by da beach boooooooy...lol;)....seriously nhc makes the call but if their were surface obs under 92L it would have been classified already,just my opinion but based on sat presentation those are my thought!!!! Member Since: Ottobre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

4254. cchsweatherman 03:42 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
Quoting Levi32: There is no CDO, only curved spiral banding arcing into the center. Central convection has died off since last night. I expect a rebuilding later today after we get through diurnal min. Should be very interesting to see how much convection builds overnight now that it has developed some nice low level structure. Member Since: Aprile 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4928

4255. Levi32 03:43 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
New blog is up. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

4256. scottsvb 03:44 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
Quoting stillwaiting: Yea I was saying that,and... I stick by me story!!!!,I live by da beach boooooooy...lol;)....seriously nhc makes the call but if their were surface obs under 92L it would have been classified already,just my opinion but based on sat presentation those are my thought!!!! This isnt close to being a TD.. we need a CDO over the center and persistance for 6-12hrs Member Since: Gennaio 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1188

4257. Skyepony (Mod) 03:47 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
Quoting Weather456: Skyepony, What you fail to understand is that actual satellite images is not supporting this second low and when it comes down to the nitty gritty, actually satellite obs will prevail. Looking at RGB ~6 hrs ago (time of windsat pass) I see a 2nd elongated surface circulation ~7n37W.. even most the models showed 2 areas of surface vorticity..they are consolidating right now toward one. It's going as I've expected for a few days now. Give it a little time, it's not quite a TD yet. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29995

4258. serialteg 03:48 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
Quoting Weather456: I would advise anyone wanting to know more of the upper environment that is expected as it nears the islands to take a look at the GFS 200 mb analysis. wats up weather? Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1967

4259. StadiumEffect 03:51 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
Quoting scottsvb: This isnt close to being a TD.. we need a CDO over the center and persistance for 6-12hrs A CDO is not necessary for clasification. Convection has been steadily maintained for almost 12 hours now (apart from the few hours of warmed cloud tops). What the NHC is waiting on is the development of a closed circulation and maybe one which is less broad. Depression status likely sometime today, or early tomorrow if this trend continues.

4260. wxmobilejim 03:56 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Maggio 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 230

4261. wfyweather 03:58 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
well, within an hour we find out if nhc went code red. i think they probably are still at orange. 30 to 40 percent Member Since: Luglio 12, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

4262. OracleDeAtlantis 04:03 PM GMT del 13 Giugno 2010
Quoting AstroHurricane001: There's something subtly ominous about an invest that's so far south it's half cut off on the Atlantic imagery. One of the more provocative comments that I have heard here. Speaking of something that is off the radar. A new comet has just entered the heart of Perseus. ... Clash of the Titans? ... Member Since: Agosto 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 323

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