TSR predicts very active hurricane season; Atlantic May MDR SSTs warmest on record
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for an exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The latest TSR forecast issued June 4 calls for 17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 181% of average. These numbers are much above the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are an increase from their April forecast of 16.3 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The TSR June forecast numbers are the highest they've ever gone for in the eleven years they've been issuing Atlantic hurricane season forecasts. TSR predicts a 85-90% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 85% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 20-34% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.
TSR projects that 5.7 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.5 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2009 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 10 - 17% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.8 named storms, 0.8 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.
TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an exceptionally active season:
1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.6°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. This is the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)
2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 1.2 meters per second (about 2.7 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.
Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and tropicalstormrisk.com (TSR) from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.
2010 hurricane season forecasts from CSU and NOAA
NOAA's 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, issued May 27, called for 18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 210% of normal (using the mid-point of their range of numbers.) The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) issued on June 2 called for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. So, the consensus forecast from NOAA, CSU, and TSR is 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. The June forecast numbers from all three groups were the highest they've ever gone for in their history of issuing Atlantic hurricane season forecasts.
May SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest May on record, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were a remarkable 1.51°C above average during May. This is the fourth straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month. The previous record warmest anomaly for the Atlantic MDR was 1.46°C, set last month. Third place goes to June 2005 and March 2010, with a 1.26°C anomaly. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. However, trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near-normal speeds over the past week, since the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened to near-normal pressures. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to increase to above average strength during mid-June, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies have probably peaked for the year, and we can anticipate that the June SST anomaly in the MDR will not be as great as the May anomaly--and may even fall below the June record set in 2005.
Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for June 10, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Oil spill update
Light southeast or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Pensacola. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Figure 3. The oil spill as imaged on June 9, 2010, by NOAA's Terra satellite. The spill appears highly reflective in the sunglint portion of the image.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have a new post on Friday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The only fire here is the fire that is allowed. He might well be a troll, but you need to give him the benefit of the doubt first. He might truly believe he sees something we don't. Give him a little bit before you derogatorily label him a troll.
Alex will make it, I know he can. Thoughts and prayers are with him, you and the family.
big foot come loook out hmmm
Definitely looks like an Azores low/subtropical transition. My first guess is Vince
.. This is a great idea for downtime btw... Just make sure the storm name is not in the image properties! (This one does not appear to be, but a few others were)
... also @everyone stop feeding the troll(s).
It was already stated to be 2006's Isaac...
And the tropics remain quiet.
Yes.
Is it supposed to represent something, or was it just for the lulz?
I had a image there but decided to remove it. Then it just went white.
Ah, gotcha. Kind of odd, though? I thought that once an avatar was removed, it was replaced with a different icon? Maybe it's just me.
Tropical Update
Have a good Friday
we will have to watch this EALT troical wave very closely over the next few days.Conditions appear marginally favourable for development as the wave trek westward towards the southern and central windward islands. the situation will have to be be monitured closely
"(CNN) -- Australian authorities on Friday made contact with a 16-year-old American girl who triggered a distress signal while attempting to sail solo around the world.
But it could be a day before a French fishing vessel pulls Abby Sunderland and her boat, Wild Eyes, to shore, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said.
"She's in the boat. The boat's seaworthy. It's not taking on water, and she's equipped for the conditions down there, we believe," said Mick Kinley of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority.
Sunderland triggered the distress signal Thursday during rough seas.
"She's been dismasted. The rigging's over the side and in the water," Kinley told reporters Friday.
He said Wild Eyes was in the Southern Ocean about 2,000 miles southwest of Perth, Australia, when rescuers contacted her Friday."
84,000,000 gallons have gone into the GOM since this started.
which is seven or eight exxon valdeez disasters so far. And remember today they will release the flow rate data calculated AFTER the riser was cut. Some say there was a significant increase at that point, in contrast to BP's official estimate of a 20% increase after the riser was cut.
Remember that everyone is assuming that BP will get one thing right this year i.e. the relief well. Well lets suppose that doesn't work first time, or it gets delayed by hurricanes. Then we might be facing another few exxon valdeez spills.
Like I keep saying, most people don't know whats gonna hit them when this stuff starts washing up properly. A few tar balls right now will be replaced by tides of oil that will keep coming and will take years to make right, eventually this stuff will get washed all the way into the river mouths and thats when the real chaos starts.
Ike, it really makes me mad that our government has been complicit in downsizing the leak rates. I foresee BP using the official government sanctioning of the 5000 per day rate to weasel out of liabilities.
Jail the parents.
If memory serves the first relief well they drilled for the Ixtoc mess did not get the job done, it took several additional months and a second well to get it done.
Morning to all, I agree with this. Now if they could only get it stopped so we can get it cleaned up.Running out of time till a cane comes thru the gulf.
The NOGAPS seems to spin everything up lately and it hasn't come to pass.
I don't see much on the ECMWF through June 21st or the GFS through June 26th.
Here in Martinique, I keep an eye on the 8N 51W...
I watched Anderson Cooper/AC360 last night and he was interviewing family members of the 11 workers who died.
BP management is pathetic in how they've treated these family members. Almost ignoring them. Where's your compassion?
I'm trying to think of an appropriate word to use to describe BP. Not the honest hard workers, but the big shots that act totally uncaring and have been nothing but liars through all of this. They take us to be fools.
I have little faith in a relief well being finished and working by August. I heard guesstimates a couple of weeks ago of it taking til December...that seems more likely to me.
Ninety-nine percent chance some of this massive oil volcano will be deposited along the northern GOM with a TS or hurricane.
One word I could come up with to describe the big-shots at BP....jerks!
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