TSR predicts very active hurricane season; Atlantic May MDR SSTs warmest on record
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for an exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The latest TSR forecast issued June 4 calls for 17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 181% of average. These numbers are much above the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are an increase from their April forecast of 16.3 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The TSR June forecast numbers are the highest they've ever gone for in the eleven years they've been issuing Atlantic hurricane season forecasts. TSR predicts a 85-90% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 85% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 20-34% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.
TSR projects that 5.7 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.5 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2009 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 10 - 17% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.8 named storms, 0.8 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.
TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an exceptionally active season:
1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.6°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. This is the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)
2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 1.2 meters per second (about 2.7 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.
Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and tropicalstormrisk.com (TSR) from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.
2010 hurricane season forecasts from CSU and NOAA
NOAA's 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, issued May 27, called for 18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 210% of normal (using the mid-point of their range of numbers.) The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) issued on June 2 called for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. So, the consensus forecast from NOAA, CSU, and TSR is 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. The June forecast numbers from all three groups were the highest they've ever gone for in their history of issuing Atlantic hurricane season forecasts.
May SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest May on record, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were a remarkable 1.51°C above average during May. This is the fourth straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month. The previous record warmest anomaly for the Atlantic MDR was 1.46°C, set last month. Third place goes to June 2005 and March 2010, with a 1.26°C anomaly. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. However, trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near-normal speeds over the past week, since the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened to near-normal pressures. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to increase to above average strength during mid-June, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies have probably peaked for the year, and we can anticipate that the June SST anomaly in the MDR will not be as great as the May anomaly--and may even fall below the June record set in 2005.
Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for June 10, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Oil spill update
Light southeast or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Pensacola. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Figure 3. The oil spill as imaged on June 9, 2010, by NOAA's Terra satellite. The spill appears highly reflective in the sunglint portion of the image.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have a new post on Friday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I'm in north Texas...uit's always hot here...LOL
How are you? Other than hot, that is
Murphy was an optimist
Shen, no truer words were ever spoken
BIG WAVE
So what if 2010 SST falls behind 2005. We will probably still be ahead of 2004, which was a bad year for Florida.
The figures are in and if we look at history, it says the idea that this hurricane season is a very active one is shaping up nicely. The AMO continued its rise in May checking in at .5, the warmest May AMO I can find. The strong negative NAO showed up as forecast; it's -1.49.
Taking a look at past Mays with a warm AMO and a strong negative NAO (less than -1), the following years show up 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2008. The 1995 and 1998 are closest, with reversing ninos to La Ninas. The AMO in the years referenced averaged .31. The NAO averaged ~-1.35. The number of storms in those years averaged 21; the number of storms that impacted the United States was 8.5; the number of hurricanes averaged 5.5 with 2.5 major.
It would seem, given the way these AMO and NAO figures have turned out, along with the La Nina coming on, that the ideas that we gave you first back on Feb. 14 are still on target. The hyper year of 2005 is averaged into all this and that skews the averages up, but also shows that my idea that this is a major season, and perhaps in a worst case a top 2 or 3 season, certainly stands up to the scrutiny of the latest data.
BY JOEEE
As someone who has been active in Maritime SAR for well over 30 years the above does NOT sound true, and I can not find one iota of evidence to support such a story.
Do you have any other evidence about this other than your memory of "what someone told you"?
:)
How is everything?
Round-the-world teen sailor feared lost at sea
Sunderland, 16, has lost contact with her crew after rough night of storms.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37621453/?gt1=43001
http://www.imo.org/Facilitation/mainframe.asp?topic_id=1395
...the age-old tradition among seafarers of going immediately to the aid of anyone in distress at sea became established and continues to this day. For centuries, seafarers have considered it their duty to assist fellow mariners in peril on the high seas. In modern times, this tradition has become more than just a moral obligation and is now enshrined in international law.
The United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), for example, says that every State must require the master of a ship flying its flag to render assistance to any person found at sea in danger of being lost and to proceed to the rescue of persons in distress. Furthermore, it requires every coastal State to promote the establishment, operation and maintenance of an adequate and effective search and rescue service regarding safety on and over the sea and, where circumstances require, by way of mutual regional arrangements, to co-operate with neighbouring States for this purpose.
In this way, UNCLOS provides the legal framework for action. However, the details of any search and rescue obligations are to be found in various IMO Conventions.
The Search and Rescue (SAR) Convention of 1979 gives a clear definition of the term "Rescue". It involves not only "an operation to retrieve persons in distress, provide for their initial medical or other needs" but also to "deliver them to a place of safety". This obligation to initiate action is activated once the responsible authorities of a State Party receive information that any person is, or appears to be, in distress at sea. It further states that, once a State Party has accepted responsibility to provide search and rescue services for a specified area, it is obliged to use search and rescue units and other available facilities for providing assistance to anyone in distress at sea, and that such assistance is to be provided "regardless of the nationality or status of such a person or the circumstances in which that person is found".
I agree. Think it's trying to spin up. Think it will hit central america first though.
Close up vis loop
But I'm thinking that at this point, details are unimportant and the overall pattern is what counts. The models have wanted to develop something in the EATL/CATL for several days, off and on, and the big wave is by far the best candidate we have right now. I think this wave ought to be watched regardless of climatology. If the environment is good, the weather won't care what date it is.
Question for anyone who knows this:
Once the TUTT is gone, will the area in the SW Caribbean disappear? Or will it already be out of its influence, and if it will be, will it die?
It has a lot of activity, especially the one on the left.
we knew that already, Levi already regurgitated that ...
XD lool just kiddin' yeh Levi
Interesting feature, looks like it's trying, but the last frame shows it loosing lots of convection.
From what I see, the area in the SW Caribbean is the result of closely-spaced tropical waves agitating the ITCZ, and it is getting upper air support from diverging flow between the TUTT to its NE and the Gulf of Mexico ridge to its NW. Whats really going to determine if it persits after the TUTT has gone is if the surface pressures have fallen, does anyone know or have any obs?
But, I don't see that TUTT going away just yet. If anything, it has expanded its presence over the Caribbean over the last 24 hours.
OK, just checking. :)
Your lack of abilility to confirm my story is not my concern,
true
and actually I'm able to find lots of evidence of the story and to Chile closing down the Drake passage to sailors who refuse to pay a bond.
Could you supply links to some of that evidence?
As with you, I have no concern about what you may believe... I am concerned about disemination of inaccurate information pertaining to SAR in international waters.
no it's fine I was picking on Levi =P
I think StormW said it'll start leaving on Sunday.
I'll be on the lookout for that, thanks :)
Until then, if the TUTT doesn't weaken or go away, northerly shear on the west side of the TUTT makes this disturbance a no-go.
Yeah, this has no convergence, it's just a divergence area.
Viewing: 601 - 651
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