TSR predicts very active hurricane season; Atlantic May MDR SSTs warmest on record
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for an exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The latest TSR forecast issued June 4 calls for 17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 181% of average. These numbers are much above the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are an increase from their April forecast of 16.3 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The TSR June forecast numbers are the highest they've ever gone for in the eleven years they've been issuing Atlantic hurricane season forecasts. TSR predicts a 85-90% chance that activity will rank in the top 1/3 of years historically, and a 85% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average. TSR rates their skill level as 20-34% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 1) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers.
TSR projects that 5.7 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.5 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2009 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 10 - 17% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.8 named storms, 0.8 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.
TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an exceptionally active season:
1) Their model predicts that sea surface temperatures will be 0.6°C warmer than average in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. This is the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W). It is called the Main Development Region because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.)
2) Their model predicts slower than normal trade winds in August and September over the Main Development Region (MDR). Trade winds are forecast to be 1.2 meters per second (about 2.7 mph) slower than average. This would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to warm up, due to reduced mixing of cold water from the depths and lower evaporational cooling.
Figure 1. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and tropicalstormrisk.com (TSR) from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.
2010 hurricane season forecasts from CSU and NOAA
NOAA's 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, issued May 27, called for 18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 210% of normal (using the mid-point of their range of numbers.) The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) issued on June 2 called for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. So, the consensus forecast from NOAA, CSU, and TSR is 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. The June forecast numbers from all three groups were the highest they've ever gone for in their history of issuing Atlantic hurricane season forecasts.
May SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest May on record, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were a remarkable 1.51°C above average during May. This is the fourth straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month. The previous record warmest anomaly for the Atlantic MDR was 1.46°C, set last month. Third place goes to June 2005 and March 2010, with a 1.26°C anomaly. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. However, trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near-normal speeds over the past week, since the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened to near-normal pressures. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to increase to above average strength during mid-June, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies have probably peaked for the year, and we can anticipate that the June SST anomaly in the MDR will not be as great as the May anomaly--and may even fall below the June record set in 2005.
Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for June 10, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Oil spill update
Light southeast or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Tuesday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Pensacola. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Figure 3. The oil spill as imaged on June 9, 2010, by NOAA's Terra satellite. The spill appears highly reflective in the sunglint portion of the image.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll have a new post on Friday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thanks for the update.
Remain calm..
..follow your plan.
Oil is well.
SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10N to 20N and 20W to 8W) were a remarkable 1.51 C above average during May. This is the fourth straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month. The previous record warmest anomaly for the Atlantic MDR was 1.46 C, set last month. Third place goes to June 2005 and March 2010, with a 1.26 C anomaly.
And how many broken oil derricks?!
BP are planning to burn as much as they can, they are collecting 15 thousand barrels a day right now but who knows how much is still leaking.
Dr. Lyons is the meteorologist in charge at the NWS in San Angelo, TX. Trust me, TV weather is not always fun.
Sorry but off topic but thats a nice Avatar
WeatherLoverinMiami:I have boxerss to you dog looks like my sugarbutt.
Sheri
2005:
thats very interesting. and i wonder if the oil is making the air over the gulf hotter.
6/10/10:
More depth in the anomalously warm waters this year than in 2005.
Pretty interesting. Only way it can go is up now...
That post didn't require a response, Chuck...most of us know where Dr. Lyons went.
(And, TV weather? I literally chose not to do that...though I don't have the prettiest mug, either.)
THCP plots are pointless to compare...great big changes to that product in Oct 2008...
Clearly the resolution changed. Does it now lean warmer, cooler, the same? I don't think anyone knows but the couple of folks directly involved in creating that product.
Did it before infer the 26C depth to shallow, to deep?
Comparisons need to have large grains of salt taken as a chaser.
Yeah...noticed that.
What is the reason for the Toxins they are using other than to hide the oil under the surface of the water so we really can't see! Our Government is as guilty as they are for allowing this to occur. It is killing all plant and life within and will kill the above eventually. WHAT ARE WE DOING AND WHY! $$$$$$$$$$$
Welcome to Definitely*More Fun Than Two ExxonValdezes Day (* definitely new info at bottom)
Or yet another reason why the BP CEO's pronouncements makes ya grind yer teeth and growl.
In 2005, TropicalStorm Arlene reached near-hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico on June10th. And passed near what is now the DeepHorizon spill area before making landfall at the extreme western end of the Florida panhandle on June11th.
Comparisons with the day after TropicalStorm Arlene began spinning up on 8June2005
9Jun2010
9Jun2005
9June2010
9Jun2005
9June2010
Other major US-affecting offshore blowouts averaged 8,000to10,000barrels per day over 10days at Santa Barbara, and 11,000to12,000barrels per day over 295days at Ixtoc I.
Initial spill rate from Ixtoc I into the Gulf of Mexico was ~30,000barrels per day.
The ExxonValdez wreck spilled ~11million gallons or ~262,000barrels in total.
Three different methodologies used by UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey assessment teams have independently arrived at a minimum spill rate of 12,000barrels per day:
the surface survey team came up with 15,500plus-or-minus3500 barrels per day;
the plume velocity team came up with 18,500plus-or-minus6500 barrels per day;
and the third team's study remains incomplete and its methodology unannounced.
Using the agreed-upon 12,000barrels per day minimum, the DeepwaterHorizon will have spilled two times as much as the ExxonValdez a bit after noon on 3June2010
Using the 17,000barrels per day average of two studies, the DeepwaterHorizon will have spilled three times as much as the ExxonValdez before dawn on 6June2010
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Somewhat New Info - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
But cutting the BlowoutPreventer's riser increased the flow rate by ~20%.
So adding 20% extra to the old numbers:
the new minimum flow rate would be 14,400barrels per day;
and the new average flow rate would be 20,400barrels per day.
Subtracting the 10,000barrels per day being recovered:
some amount between 4400to10,400barrels per day is still spilling into the Gulf...
...and I refuse to think about pessimistic projections.
BritishPetroleum's ChiefExecutiveOfficer claims that they "are recovering most of the crude oil" that is flowing out of the well. However, BP has not announced that they actually know the flow rate -- as opposed to their previous official "it's not important enough to bother finding out" -- or what that flow rate is.
And until they do make such knowledge public, I can only wonder how their CEO knows that more than half of the crude oil is being recovered, can only assume that he is engaging in wishful thinking.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Definitely NEW INFO - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen reported that BP's collection from the ruptured well...had kept 14,800 barrels (621,000 gallons) of oil from flowing into the Gulf in the past 24 hours, and...BP said it collected 42,500 barrels (1.8 million gallons) of oil...in the past four days."
That BritishPetroleum is now collecting 14,800barrels per day AND that there is still more crude oil gushing into the Gulf proves that the well had been spilling more than the agreed-upon minimum of the USGS estimates.
Cyclone Oz's latest video update...morning all!
That's insane.
can someone tell me what the orange is?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nb2ifKX9oM&feature=related
this is beginning to make me feel truly crazy person and makes me want to cry. i just know that the spill is not going to be contained for months and it breaks my heart.
compare maps jun 10 2005 2009 2010
The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days....from Dr. Masters.
...quiet continues for now.
BP said on Wednesday it is dialing back a prediction by its chief operating officer that the leaking oil would be reduced to a "relative trickle" by next week. It now says it will take more time to reach that point....."
Looks like I wrote a relevant commentary ahead of time (and didn't bother to post earlier cuz the conversation had drifted far away by the time I finished)
2112 aspectre "BP...captured about 15,000 barrels...of oil Tuesday...close to...its processing limit...
...the shuttle tanker in the Gulf of Mexico...can process about 15,000 barrels of oil per day.
BP...to bring in new ships and equipment to bring that capacity up to 28,000 barrels...per day."
2114 Chicklet "so how many millions of gallons per day has it been leaking?"
I think anybody who has been following what I've written on the topic will agree that I've been consistently conservative -- using official figures, giving the benefit of the doubt to those in charge of capping&cleanup, etc -- while expressing my doubts only subtly, ala posting the Ixtoc spill-rate along with the various official rates. I will continue to be conservative in my writings.
So first, a bit more from the same article. Well, the article tells me several things have a HIGH probability of being true:
1) The spill rate was appreciably over 16,666barrels per day after the BlowOutPreventer's pipe was cut.
BritishPetroleum's ChiefExecutiveOfficer had set a capture goal of 90%. 15,000barrels is 90% of 16,666barrels.
Ordering in new equipment to handle more than 15,000barrels per day shows that BP accepts that the flow rate is appreciably more than 16,666barrels per day.
The absolute minimum amount still spilling into the Gulf is appreciably more than 1666barrels per day.
2) The spill rate had been appreciably more than 13,888barrels per day before the BoP pipe was cut. Cutting that pipe increased the flow rate by 20% or 1/5th. So the new flow rate became 6/5ths times the old flow rate. Conversely, the old flow rate is 5/6ths of the new flow rate.
The new flow rate is appreciably more than than 16,666 barrels per day,
so the old flow rate had been appreciably more than 5/6ths of 16,666barrels per day.
3) Assuming that BP is "coming loaded for bear" after having had to admit that the on-site containment&recovery ship is too small and being forced to hire a new one with larger recovery capacity, my (deliberately conservative) new estimates are:
The probable minimum presentday flow rate is between 18,666to21,500barrels per day.
Before the riser was cut, the probable minimum spill rate had been between 15,555to17,966barrels per day.
The flow rate minus what is being captured, ie the probable minimum presentday spill rate is between 3,666to6,500barrels per day.
Those are the minimums because I can't be sure that BP had intended to be "coming loaded for bear" when they hired the new 28,000barrels per day containment&recovery ship.
4) USGS admin obviously also lowballed their official estimate by averaging the surface survey team's 12,000to19,000barrels per day with the plume velocity team's 12,000to25,000barrels per day into just the lowest estimate... which is why I had earlier chosen to post both of the measurement teams' results rather than implicitly endorse the obviously wrong official "average".
ie Like the Bureau of Land Management and the Department of Minerals Management, USGS is apparently being run by "revolving*door" career bureaucrats who put serving business interests FAR above serving the public.
* "revolving door" refers to shifting between private sector jobs in an industry to public sector jobs overseeing that industy, and vice versa. Repeat as often as necessary to bump up ones pay.
Serious request, can you please all submit your weather stories on my blog or via WUmail? I'm putting together a "your stories" section on my weather website and I'd like to hear all of the great weather experiences that many of you on here have had. You can include images too if you like. I don't want to advertise the site on here and get banned so I thought my blog or WUmail would be the best way. Thanks!
I don't believe anything they say anymore.....i would like to see proof of the collection of oil they claim. We have not seen any video feed from the top of the collection container to show us anything that i have seen. Has anyone seen the Collection Container and why have they not gloatted to show the success of this.....they way they operated thus far wouldn't you think they would show such a feed for positive feedback, instead nothing. JUST MY OPINION!
I think what your see'n is the riser through the oil.. key word there is think tho.
Umm..wow...Sheri, uh...nevermind
Thanks Dr. Masters for your update.
LOL!
;)
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