Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

La Niña by July?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:42 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010

El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.

Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

Figure 4. The oil spill on June 6, 2010 at 8:32pm EDT, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Italian Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) satellite. A large region of oil was a few miles offshore of Pensacola, Florida. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Today's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

I may take a break from blogging Wednesday, as I've got some catching up to do on other duties.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Summaries

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2951. alexhurricane1991 04:18 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting Levi32: 0z GFS drops the eastern Atlantic low. 120 hours shows some mischief going on in the western Caribbean, but interacting with central America. Lets see what the euro has to say Member Since: Aprile 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

2952. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 04:18 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting 850Realtor: Did anyone ever determine what the weird reflection/fire/lava was on the ROV cams? Have multiple sites to the cam open...some show, some don't. PS-I know it's not fire or lava, LOL :) i seen that as well it was a plastic bag maybe we will see duct tape next Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 146 Comments: 41277

2953. TampaSpin 04:19 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: GFS has the system too at 66 hours, kind of drops it at 72 which it does at times we will see what it does as it goes further It does need to be be monitored for sure. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

2954. caneswatch 04:19 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting alexhurricane1991: Woah just got on whats this about an african wave developing on the 12z ecmwf. Can you link it Alex? Member Since: Ottobre 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479

2957. alexhurricane1991 04:22 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting caneswatch: Can you link it Alex? No im on my cellphone sorry. Member Since: Aprile 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

2958. Levi32 04:23 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting CapeVerdeCanes: hey levi, if its still around on teh 2am run, it'll warrent major concern. Wouldn't call it major. It's really hard to get that kind of development in June, despite such warm SSTs. For now it's just interesting. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25600

2959. alexhurricane1991 04:23 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting btwntx08: hey im in san antonio :) Alright rob im in northwest san antonio very close to leon valley. Member Since: Aprile 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

2961. SevereHurricane 04:25 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Looks to me like the GFS didn't even initialize the wave in the Eastern Caribbean. That really has me wondering how credible this run might be as far as development down the road in the western Caribbean goes. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

2962. caneswatch 04:26 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting alexhurricane1991: No im on my cellphone sorry. Damn lol, well thanks anyways. Is it the one still over Africa now? Member Since: Ottobre 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479

2963. xcool 04:26 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
oh man look who is rob hi Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2964. xcool 04:26 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
alex get off phone j/k Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2965. Levi32 04:26 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
GFS still thinks the low in the western Caribbean will get a chance to strengthen in the Bay of Campeche: Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25600

2966. alexhurricane1991 04:27 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting caneswatch: Damn lol, well thanks anyways. Is it the one still over Africa now? Sorry man i wish i was on the computer but anyways yes its the one over africa. Member Since: Aprile 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

2967. ElConando 04:27 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
2956. Here we go again??? Member Since: Settembre 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

2970. SevereHurricane 04:29 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting ElConando: 2956. Here we go again??? I loled. There are old pilots and there are bold pilots, but there are no old-bold pilots. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

2973. SevereHurricane 04:30 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Levi, do you agree with my observation on post 2961? Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

2975. xcool 04:31 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
btwntx08 haha Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2976. alexhurricane1991 04:32 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting SevereHurricane: Levi, do you agree with my observation on post 2961? Im not levi but just posting my thoughts i agree i looked at the run and noticed the same thing good catch! Member Since: Aprile 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

2977. ElConando 04:33 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
I would say more but i'll just drop it and move on. Member Since: Settembre 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

2978. Levi32 04:34 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting SevereHurricane: Levi, do you agree with my observation on post 2961? It did initialize the wave. It just doesn't have much wind shift at the surface, and the wave will be getting weaker over the next 48 hours anyway. GFS 0z 850mb winds/vorticity initialization: Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25600

2979. SevereHurricane 04:35 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting Levi32: It did initialize the wave. It just doesn't have much wind shift at the surface, and the wave will be getting weaker over the next 48 hours anyway. GFS 0z 850mb winds/vorticity initialization: I thought it was more amplified than what the model shows. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

2980. xcool 04:36 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2981. alexhurricane1991 04:36 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting Levi32: It did initialize the wave. It just doesn't have much wind shift at the surface, and the wave will be getting weaker over the next 48 hours anyway. GFS 0z 850mb winds/vorticity initialization: Well my bad thanks levi i thought i didnt see the wave well i was wrong. Member Since: Aprile 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

2982. Levi32 04:38 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting SevereHurricane: I thought it was more amplified than what the model shows. Not really. The eastern Caribbean is a graveyard for tropical waves, as the strong trade winds in that area de-amplify the wave axis and ruin surface convergence. It is hard for a tropical wave to survive the gauntlet. That's another reason why this wave may end up being nothing in the western Caribbean if it is too weak after passing through this hostile area. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25600

2983. ElConando 04:39 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
I smell shower curtains, that is all... How are the Antilles fairing? Member Since: Settembre 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

2984. SouthALWX 04:40 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Janiel, what are your predictions for this season? And what are your predictions for how long that handle will last? Member Since: Agosto 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

2985. SevereHurricane 04:41 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting Levi32: Not really. The eastern Caribbean is a graveyard for tropical waves, as the strong trade winds in that area de-amplify the wave axis and ruin surface convergence. It is hard for a tropical wave to survive the gauntlet. That's another reason why this wave may end up being nothing in the western Caribbean if it is too weak after passing through this hostile area. Thanks Levi. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

2986. ShenValleyFlyFish 04:41 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting 850Realtor: Did anyone ever determine what the weird reflection/fire/lava was on the ROV cams? Have multiple sites to the cam open...some show, some don't. PS-I know it's not fire or lava, LOL :) I can't prove it but from my experience with photography I think it is some sort of refraction of the light from a RoV off to the side of one we're viewing. Something similar to a rainbow or lens flair. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

2987. sflawavedude 04:45 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
nothing much to thta wave now. to much windshear for it to do much now. next! Member Since: Giugno 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 131

2988. 850Realtor 04:47 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: I can't prove it but from my experience with photography I think it is some sort of refraction of the light from a RoV off to the side of one we're viewing. Something similar to a rainbow or lens flair. Must be...very strange to look at. Member Since: Settembre 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283

2990. alexhurricane1991 04:48 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting sflawavedude: nothing much to thta wave now. to much windshear for it to do much now. next! i agree Member Since: Aprile 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

2993. Hurricanes101 04:53 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
how does admin allow someone to create so many names to get around bans day after day and not do something else about it? Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

2994. xcool 04:53 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
go toooo hurricanecity.com .... Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2996. xcool 04:55 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
CapeVerdeCanes Jim Williams update Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

2998. alexhurricane1991 04:56 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: how does admin allow someone to create so many names to get around bans day after day and not do something else about it? Beats me but it needs to be corrected Member Since: Aprile 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

2999. ElConando 04:56 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: how does admin allow someone to create so many names to get around bans day after day and not do something else about it? Ignore him. Member Since: Settembre 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

3000. SevereHurricane 04:56 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: how does admin allow someone to create so many names to get around bans day after day and not do something else about it? He's back...lol I guess I'm not the only one that sees it. That means I'm not crazy. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

3001. xcool 04:58 AM GMT del 10 Giugno 2010
I Can't Wait for ecmwf models ... Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

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