Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

La Niña by July?
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:42 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010 +3
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.


Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.


Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.


Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 4. The oil spill on June 6, 2010 at 8:32pm EDT, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Italian Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) satellite. A large region of oil was a few miles offshore of Pensacola, Florida. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Today's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

I may take a break from blogging Wednesday, as I've got some catching up to do on other duties.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Summaries
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251. gator23 05:23 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
.
Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994
253. CaneWarning 05:23 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting NRAamy:
for using inadequate content on the blog.

hahahahaha! that would include most of the posts on here!!!!


The majority of us that have posted today are going to get banned in that case!
Member Since: Aprile 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
254. CaneWarning 05:25 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting TropicalWave:
correct, reed. i even copied and posted the image before sending it to the admins. we simply cannot afford this during the actual hurricane season. on a lighter note, how are ya, my friend? how's everything in nearby PBC neighber?


Do not let them get to you good buddy.
Member Since: Aprile 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
255. champagnedrmz 05:25 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
inadequate - 1. not adequate; insufficient
2. not capable or competent; lacking

inappropriate adj.
Unsuitable or improper
256. reedzone 05:25 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Just found out 4 earthquakes just hit the West Coast.. wow
Member Since: Luglio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247
257. gator23 05:26 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting TropicalWave:
correct, reed. i even copied and posted the image before sending it to the admins. we simply cannot afford this during the actual hurricane season. on a lighter note, how are ya, my friend? how's everything in nearby PBC neighber?

I totally agree. We simply must not have mindless posts of people asking questions that were just answered and than hurting other peoples feelings and being banned as a result. Then after a couple of days, coming back with a different avatar. We simply must not have that isnt that correct?
Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994
258. sarahjola 05:26 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it will come wait
for when it starts
they will come one
right after another

do you think its going to be as bad as they say?
Member Since: Settembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
259. CaneWarning 05:27 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting reedzone:
Just found out 4 earthquakes just hit the West Coast.. wow


How big? I see nothing on CNN.
Member Since: Aprile 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
260. EricSFL 05:27 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting gator23:

I totally agree. We simply must not have mindless posts of people asking questions that were just answered and than hurting other peoples feelings and being banned as a result. Then after a couple of days, coming back with a different avatar. We simply must not have that isnt that correct?


lol
Member Since: Maggio 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
261. CaneWarning 05:27 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting gator23:

I totally agree. We simply must not have mindless posts of people asking questions that were just answered and than hurting other peoples feelings and being banned as a result. Then after a couple of days, coming back with a different avatar. We simply must not have that isnt that correct?


Something like that would certainly be a blog "thretter".
Member Since: Aprile 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
262. gator23 05:28 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting sarahjola:

do you think its going to be as bad as they say?

OMG yes. Busy season is not equal to how early a season starts, 2005 didnt start that early.
Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994
263. ShenValleyFlyFish 05:28 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i know joe


And I know Jack Link
Member Since: Settembre 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684
264. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:29 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting CaneWarning:


Do not let them get to you good buddy.


don't you mean good old bud sir
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40413
265. NRAamy 05:29 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
256. reedzone 10:25 AM PDT on June 08, 2010
Just found out 4 earthquakes just hit the West Coast.. wow



where? I didn't feel any...
Member Since: Gennaio 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937
266. Levi32 05:29 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
For interest purposes only, the 384-hour 12z GFS has a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean. All that I take away from seeing this is that the African wave train is likely to stay active, and as the ITCZ starts to nudge farther north during the course of the month, things like this will have to be watched for as we approach July.

Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441
267. sarahjola 05:29 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting gator23:

OMG yes. Busy season is not equal to how early a season starts, 2005 didnt start that early.
why is the water so hot so early?
Member Since: Settembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
268. 7544 05:29 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
does the hati blob have a small chance to be the first invest this season ? tia
Member Since: Maggio 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925
269. EricSFL 05:30 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting CaneWarning:


Something like that would certainly be a blog "thretter".


You mean a "trhetter".
Member Since: Maggio 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 756
270. reedzone 05:30 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting CaneWarning:


How big? I see nothing on CNN.


Ehh, probably minor ones, my mom told me, but I'm on the news sites and see nothing..
Member Since: Luglio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247
271. hydrus 05:31 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting gator23:

I would agree with you. I think Florida is high risk every year. Since we get hit the most.
lol. There were ten hurricanes in 1998. It is not an unreasonable assumption that one hurricane in ten of will strike Florida. The way Florida is Configured geographically, I am surprised its still there at all.
Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14248
272. CaneWarning 05:31 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting EricSFL:


You mean a "trhetter".


I knew I must've been spelling that incorrectly. I'm sorry I don't have my J*V-Dictionary handy.
Member Since: Aprile 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
274. RitaEvac 05:32 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
2010 is gonna send out a stragler to test the conditions if they're ripe. When the lone stragler says "all clear, perfect conditions" the hive will unleash and storms will ravage the oceans
Member Since: Luglio 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8874
276. hydrus 05:33 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting Levi32:
For interest purposes only, the 384-hour 12z GFS has a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean. All that I take away from seeing this is that the African wave train is likely to stay active, and as the ITCZ starts to nudge farther north during the course of the month, things like this will have to be watched for as we approach July.

The A/B high looks strong at 384 hours.
Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14248
277. rmbjoe1954 05:33 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting CaneWarning:


I knew I must've been spelling that incorrectly. I'm sorry I don't have my J*V-Dictionary handy.


Oh oh...now you've said the unmentionable name...
Member Since: Giugno 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 725
278. Levi32 05:33 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting 7544:
does the hati blob have a small chance to be the first invest this season ? tia


The area of disturbed weather north of Hispaniola is being caused by upper-level divergence, and is not in a position to develop.
Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441
279. mrsalagranny 05:33 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting hydrus:
lol. There were ten hurricanes in 1998. It is not an unreasonable assumption that one hurricane in ten of will strike Florida. The way Florida is Configured geographically, I am surprised its still there at all.
I hope you are all spared this year especially with the oil situation.I will pray you dont get hit this year Hydrus.
Member Since: Giugno 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 731
280. sarahjola 05:33 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
i have a stupid question- what is itcz?
Member Since: Settembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
281. gator23 05:34 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting sarahjola:
why is the water so hot so early?

God installed a new water heater. BUt im sure someone here hs a better explanation than me.
Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994
283. sarahjola 05:35 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting gator23:

God installed a new water heater. BUt im sure someone here hs a better explanation than me.

lol!
Member Since: Settembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
284. CaneWarning 05:36 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Oh oh...now you've said the unmentionable name...


I censored it though...that has to count for something, right?
Member Since: Aprile 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
286. NEFLWATCHING 05:36 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
destin - best avatar i've seen in a long time - very funny.
Member Since: Settembre 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 80
287. gator23 05:36 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting hydrus:
lol. There were ten hurricanes in 1998. It is not an unreasonable assumption that one hurricane in ten of will strike Florida. The way Florida is Configured geographically, I am surprised its still there at all.

LMAO!
Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994
288. IKE 05:37 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
289. stillwaiting 05:37 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting 7544:
does the hati blob have a small chance to be the first invest this season ? tia





zero chance,we've already had the first invest of the year;)
Member Since: Ottobre 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
290. 7544 05:38 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
thanks still watching
Member Since: Maggio 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925
291. CaneWarning 05:41 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting hydrus:
lol. There were ten hurricanes in 1998. It is not an unreasonable assumption that one hurricane in ten of will strike Florida. The way Florida is Configured geographically, I am surprised its still there at all.


We're working on moving the whole state:

Member Since: Aprile 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
292. mrsalagranny 05:41 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
I live in Mobile Ala can anyone tell me if we are at a higher risk this year.
Member Since: Giugno 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 731
293. IKE 05:41 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
294. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:41 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting sarahjola:

do you think its going to be as bad as they say?


hard to say
but as we progress towards the end of june and come into early july things will pick up
how fast they will pick up remains to be seen
as we get to the end of july CV season will then come into play
the poss chance for an early start is high there
so lets say if we get dev in GOM with something popin in nw and sw carb
another in sw atlantic yet another east of the windwards and finally a monster out of the verdes
ya things have the potenial to get hectic real fast if everything plays out at the same time
the most i've seen and tracked at the same time in atlantic basin was 5 storms 3 of them were canes 2 storms iam hoping i don't see that this year but who knows i know it can and will get pretty crazy
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40413
295. CaneWarning 05:43 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting IKE:
Latest NOGAPS run....


Wow, it creates twin storms.
Member Since: Aprile 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
296. Makoto1 05:43 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I figured a more active season would mean everyone on the coast is at higher risk since it's really hard to predict where things will go until a storm's really already out there.
297. tornadodude 05:44 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
i tihnk taht teher will be bans tdoay
Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816
298. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 05:44 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
Quoting sarahjola:
i have a stupid question- what is itcz?

ITCZ
Inter-Tropical-Convergence-Zone
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40413
300. serialteg 05:47 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010    
quiet for now

Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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