Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
If you look at my plots you can easily gauge the strength of the atlantic high by the curvature of the avg line.... I'm fairly sure the high just strengthens and weakens on a five year cycle. If anyone has ever noticed this before, I don't know, but it looks to me from this data that it does.

Please someone... input on this?

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is an oscillation that affects the strength of the Atlantic subtropical high. But looking at thee graphs initially (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Winter-NAO-Index.svg) doesn't show correlation with the period of your trend.

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Quoting SLU:





Alma of 1974 - Aug 12 - 15.

Satellite pictures don't get much more vintage than this .....

OH! GREAT image SLU.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is an oscillation that affects the strength of the Atlantic subtropical high. But looking at thee graphs initially (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Winter-NAO-Index.svg) doesn't show correlation with the period of your trend.

Well then it would be good to figure out what is causing the trend that I found.

Quoting pottery:

OH! GREAT image SLU.

I dont know where he gets them but keep them comin.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is an oscillation that affects the strength of the Atlantic subtropical high. But looking at thee graphs initially (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Winter-NAO-Index.svg) doesn't show correlation with the period of your trend.

Actually that is a graph of the winters of Europe from NAO, not really related to what we are talking about. Maybe researching the NAO could lead you to an answer.

Quoting SLU:





Alma of 1974 - Aug 12 - 15.

Satellite pictures don't get much more vintage than this .....

Alma was as far south as they get.

Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting for those who can see it. Why was my post earlier on this blacked out to the general public? Really, why??? It is only news from another country. Are we edited?????????

Here is the link that paved the way for removal of my post by virtue of voting or admin. Why would that be?>>>??????? Please tell me why those who live in the US would not want to know why better technology was not used to help us!
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Just sayin............... Don't let the minus from a few rule the site ...........

http://beforeitsnews.com/news/75/195/Why_Did_The_U.S._Refuse_International_Help_on_The_Gulf_Oil_Spi ll.html

I cannot imagine what is wrong with that.

Only points out that there are international groups with capabilities we don't seem to have and says we have ignored them. I don't think anyone would argue with a charge of mismanagement by all parties, so far.

Looks like the wave of intrest is dying. IMO

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Greetings Atmo!

2812 Ossqss "Interesting for those who can see it. Why was my post earlier on this blacked out to the general public?"

Probably a random glitch. Same thing happened earlier to reedzone for no discernible reason. And by the time he posted again, his complaint about the blackout as well as his following postings had become visible again.

Quoting atmoaggie:

I cannot imagine what is wrong with that.

Only points out that there are international groups with capabilities we don't seem to have and says we have ignored them. I don't think anyone would argue with a charge of mismanagement by all parties, so far.

That looks like a pretty suspect news source. Might as well post a link to the Onion.

Quoting hydrus:
I dont know where he gets them but keep them comin.

Link

GOES SATELLITE ARCHIVE. You can see every storm develop in the Atlantic or anywhere in the world from 1974 - 2010.

Looks like the Wave that it moving through the Islands is dying out as i said it would....it was purly divergernce caused by shear. Wishcasters can now relax and find another blob to wish upon a star for......LOL....just kidding all....but it did do as said.

Quoting jamesrainier:


You mean how could I post a link to a perfectly valid internet thread where he or others might find answers to their oil leak webcam questions because the people there have a 24/7 webcam watch going? Because although I haven't been following that thread I know it exists and thought people going omg lava, fire, might find that other more knowledgeable people watching weren't freaking out.

sorry but it bugged me thinking you were telling someone to leave this blog because they were talking about the oil spill webcam. the website address seemed like it was a doom n gloom thing. i guess i should have look.

Quoting pottery:

OH! GREAT image SLU.

Thanks. check out the archives

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Here are the results:

It's a five year cycle from West to East with the furthest west year being labeled the "A" year, and the furthest East year labeled the "E" year.

1995, A "D" year:


We see that in 1996, the "E" year, the average track has shifted slightly to the east.


In 1997, the cycle begins at an "A" year. The track resets to the west.


In 1998, the track does bulge further west than in 1997, but if the line were to be smoothed you would notice the average is in fact further east. This is a "B" year.


In 1999 we see that the track shifts to the east. A "C" year.


In 2000, the track continues to shift east slightly. A "D" year.


In 2001, the track reaches the end of its eastward trek. An "E" year.


It all starts over again in 2002 with an "A" year. Notice how far west the average track has gone.


Back to the east a little in '03. "B" year.


A little more to the east in 2004. "C" year.


In 2005 the track stays in about the same place, but with more storms occurring further east than in 2004. (This is the only outlier in the set, and it's not even very far off at all.) "D" year.


In 2006, it's hard over to the east again. An "E" year.


In 2007 is restarts in the west. "A" year.


2008. "B" year.


2009. "C" year.


...which means this year we should be looking at an average track slightly to the east of last years :)

What will be interesting would be to compare this year's tracks to the particular graph. See if the tracks follow the average.

This might become a way to use the "history" to predict the future.

Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like the Wave that it moving through the Islands is dying out as i said it would....it was purly divergernce caused by shear. Wishcasters can now relax and find another blog to wish upon a star for......LOL....just kidding all....but it did do as said.

Well, Good call.

Evening All!

KOTG, were you able to make a determination?

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Awesome. I can see individual towering cumulonimbus clouds in the front of the image.

Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like the Wave that it moving through the Islands is dying out as i said it would....it was purly divergernce caused by shear. Wishcasters can now relax and find another blob to wish upon a star for......LOL....just kidding all....but it did do as said.

The energy will need to be tracked as it heads across the Caribbean. Things could get interesting in the W. Caribbean early next week, IMO.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

What Dat?

Quoting bappit:


That looks like a pretty suspect news source. Might as well post a link to the Onion.

And what would be wrong with that? Done that myself a couple of times ;-)

Really, though. Name me one news source that is always a. on top of it, b. never gets it wrong
It's up to you and me to decide what has any veracity. My opinion of that one is...well maybe there is some accuracy. There is a little truth in anything. How much remains to be seen...or maybe will never be.

BP Again Changes Oil Containment Timeline

BP has changed its tune once again on the precise timing of when it believes it will be able to contain the oil gushing from its blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico
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BP said on Wednesday it is dialing back a prediction by its chief operating officer that the leaking oil would be reduced to a "relative trickle" by next week. It now says it will take more time to reach that point.....

Quoting pottery:
Greetings Atmo!

G'Morning!
(I usually operate on UTC time...)

KEEPER what storm is that? .. wonderful pic. I wish to see the day when visible satellite pics would look like that ...

new surface map (00Z)

Quoting hcubed:


What will be interesting would be to compare this year's tracks to the particular graph. See if the tracks follow the average.

This might become a way to use the "history" to predict the future.

I did that for other years... I averaged out the years that are of the same cycle and drew up a prediction based on the averages. When I compared what I had "forecast" to the actual average of that year they were exactly identical.

felix 2007 from ISS

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
new surface map (00Z)

Nice! The ITCZ has leapt north by about 5 degrees in short time.
In fact, if it bent a little more, it would verify the entire "hockey-stick" theory. LOL

Thredbo Village
More snowcams can be found here.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Felix

Well I am out.
It has stopped raining!

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I did that for other years... I averaged out the years that are of the same cycle and drew up a prediction based on the averages. When I compared what I had "forecast" to the actual average of that year they were exactly identical.

So please post, by itself, the chart that this year should follow.

Quoting pottery:

Well, Good call.

Hey Pottery.....i first thought the energy might hold together into the Western Caribbean but, with stronger Shear to the West....it might be tough to keep any energy intack. Needs to be watched tho as the energy can duck under shear when the low is at the lower levels......this does have a good 850mb vorticity return so a low level spin is still there.

If I remember correctly it is the convection which dies out, but the wave axis continues to trek onwards and as long as the wave axis is present it bears watching in the western Caribbean. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Quoting weatherwatcher12:
If I remember correctly it is the convection which dies out, but the wave axis continues to trek onwards and as long as the wave axis is present it bears watching in the western Caribbean. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

That's right, tropical waves do not need convection to persist. Tropical cyclones do. But, convection amplifies a tropical wave into a tropical cyclone.

Quoting Orcasystems:
BP Again Changes Oil Containment Timeline

BP has changed its tune once again on the precise timing of when it believes it will be able to contain the oil gushing from its blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico
.

BP said on Wednesday it is dialing back a prediction by its chief operating officer that the leaking oil would be reduced to a "relative trickle" by next week. It now says it will take more time to reach that point.....

Whom ever is in charge of press releases through the Public Relations Department should be fired. Making so many promises and then retracting nearly every single one is more blunders than Laurel could blame Hardie.....LOL

I wonder if they will ever fix that oil leak? What if they can't? How many years could the oil leak go on its own accord?

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I wonder if they will ever fix that oil leak? What if they can't? How many years could the oil leak go on its own accord?

20 yrs

Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey Pottery.....i first thought the energy might hold together into the Western Caribbean but, with stronger Shear to the West....it might be tough to keep any energy intack. Needs to be watched tho as the energy can duck under shear when the low is at the lower levels......this does have a good 850mb vorticity return so a low level spin is still there.

If it hangs on for another 24 hours will the % go up?

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


That's right, tropical waves do not need convection to persist. Tropical cyclones do. But, convection amplifies a tropical wave into a tropical cyclone.

How long will it have to hang on to come back to life?

Hurricane Cindy on August 28, 1999. Cindy was the second of five Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic this year, a record tied with 2005

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
20 yrs

Seriously? That would mess up so many lives in the Gulf and up and down the east coast. The economy would probably tank again after so many businesses get affected, and I stayed in school getting my Masters hoping things would get better after graduation (phd won't cover that 20 yrs either LOL).

Sometimes I wonder if we should be focusing more on the oil spill than the hurricanes, that spill could be a bigger disasater unlike anything before.

Quoting aspectre:
2812 Ossqss "Interesting for those who can see it. Why was my post earlier on this blacked out to the general public?"

Probably a random glitch. Same thing happened earlier to reedzone for no discernible reason. And by the time he posted again, his complaint about the blackout as well as his following postings had become visible again.

I just looked at post 2080 from a non-logged in view and it is what it is.......people made a decision for those who are not members. Think about it!

I am out due to a hamster problem and explaining why my attempt at CPR did not work now, but it did on the lizard and the neighbors dog, yep I have done it.

Wish me luck, I have a 10 year old waiting to understand what is going on with her 3 year old hamster. That is not an easy thing to do......but is required,,,, out..

Don't let a small sample of this site run the view. Just sayin... Hit the tool this site provides for you, others do in a concerted manner........