Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting pottery:

Yeah! I remember Alma well. Lots of damage in south.
And I remember going to Tobago the week after Flora. Massive!

1966 Alma? The one that had 130 mph sustained winds in early June? Monster Flora killed thousands.

When you get a chance, check out this blog article I posted early last month....Other Modulators of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

It states that the QBO, one of the modulators of hurricane activity has lost some credence over the past 15 years due the active period we are in. However, while the QBO and overall numbers are not related, the QBO has an effect on the number of storms forming east of 50W and south of 20N.

The two easterly phases of the QBO occurred in 2005 and 2007, both bad years for cape verde systems (Tds, ts h, and mh)....

On the other hand, we notice some infamous years such as 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009, all active cape verde years during the westerly phase of QBO.

The last paragraph stated:

The 30 mb zonal wind regime over the equator during January-April 2010 was easterly which would imply fewer storms in the deep tropics. This is a true possibility but a small one since all other modulators favor an above average hurricane season. This is something 2010 and 2005 have in common again, an easterly phase in the QBO. Though the possibility maybe small, don't be surprise that we end up with a season like 2005 rather than 2008 in terms of origins of storms. Remember the three big ones of 2005 - Katrina, Rita and Wilma formed west of 50W.

Since 2002, Dr. Gray and his team has discontinued using the QBO has a modulator in their December forecast. From since the December of 2003, they have put less emphasis on the QBO, along with West African Rainfall.

Quoting weatherwatcher12:
I have a question. Would a hurricanes effects be worse on an area if it stays just off shore and passes by since they would get hit by the front right quadrant?

No, the north east quad is the worst and would remain offshore.

Adios to permanently banned Cyclone Oz. I will miss him on this blog. He tested "pushing Admin" and lost. I guess you can say he asked for it. Oh well :(

hey

Quoting WaterWitch11:

and you know what there is people discussing the feeds here too.
see how dr master's has all the links concerning the oil spill?

this was meant for you jamesrainer.

how could you post a doom and gloom website for someone talking about what they saw on the webcam?

Quoting AllStar17:

gosh those are good

Quoting weatherwatcher12:
I have a question. Would a hurricane's effects be worse on an area if it stays just off shore and passes by since they would get hit by the front right quadrant?

Yes, from what I understand, if you get pounded by the northeastern eye wall (if the storm track is northwestward), then it is worse than getting a track through the eye.

The storm direction is also important, if the storm track is directly westward, the northern eye wall has the strongest winds. If the storm track is eastward, the southern eye wall has the strongest winds. If the storm track is southward, then the western eye wall has the strongest winds, etc.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


No, the north east quad is the worst and would remain offshore.

dumb question....What if it is headed up the west coast of Fla?

Quoting BtnTx:
Adios to permanently banned Cyclone Oz. I will miss him on this blog. He tested "pushing Admin" and lost. I guess you can say he asked for it. Oh well :(

What happened to cycloneOZ ...I've been MIA for a few days

Ya the cam I am watching now has pulled back little, and it does look like plastic now. Still, the 'vortex' from which it seems to arise seems to appear and disappear.

Wild optical illusion, if that is what it is.

Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


dumb question....What if it is headed up the west coast of Fla?

The south west would then be the worst quad and still remain off shore.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Found an article for ya on the quads of a cane.

Thanks for the link!! It reminded me that I mixed up the North east quadrant with the north west one. Lol

Hey guys, I'm back! Decided to come back now, it's been a very long time since I have shown up, and a whole lot of things have happened, including, unfortunatly, Cyclone Oz getting banned and all, it sure will feel a little less a good blog without him.

Well, onto looking at the water vap. maps.

Quoting BtnTx:
Adios to permanently banned Cyclone Oz. I will miss him on this blog. He tested "pushing Admin" and lost. I guess you can say he asked for it. Oh well :(

You can thank some of those bloggers/moderators who are MIA for the loss! He brought more here than most realize....... apparently, that is how it works now!

The tropical wave approaching the islands is the first one from the African wave train that has started growing before reaching the islands. This may have a relatively far south southern track, but it still may get into the Gulf next week. Waves following should track a bit farther north as the month progresses.

4) A significant burst of west wind is interrupting the La Nina onslaught and this is a sign that the MJO is alive and kicking. Forecasted pressures in the SOI determination area are reversing later this week, but something significant is moving through there and its effect on the tropics may be something to deal with in a couple of weeks.

Thanks for reading. Ciao for now.
by joe

Thanks to you also NC.

Who would ban him I wonder, sounds like a politician leaked into this site as a secret moderator!

heyCapeVerdeCanes

Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Looks like we could have a june storm.My time frame for our first storm was mid-late june.Look like it may happen with this wave,but agian it's still over africa.

I would be very surprised if we ended the month still with zero named storms based on the overall pattern.

Quoting Weather456:
When you get a chance, check out this blog article I posted early last month....Other Modulators of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

It states that the QBO, one of the modulators of hurricane activity has lost some credence over the past 15 years due the active period we are in. However, while the QBO and overall numbers are not related, the QBO has an effect on the number of storms forming east of 50W and south of 20N.

The two easterly phases of the QBO occurred in 2005 and 2007, both bad years for cape verde systems (Tds, ts h, and mh)....

On the other hand, we notice some infamous years such as 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009, all active cape verde years during the westerly phase of QBO.

The last paragraph stated:

The 30 mb zonal wind regime over the equator during January-April 2010 was easterly which would imply fewer storms in the deep tropics. This is a true possibility but a small one since all other modulators favor an above average hurricane season. This is something 2010 and 2005 have in common again, an easterly phase in the QBO. Though the possibility maybe small, don't be surprise that we end up with a season like 2005 rather than 2008 in terms of origins of storms. Remember the three big ones of 2005 - Katrina, Rita and Wilma formed west of 50W.

Since 2002, Dr. Gray and his team has discontinued using the QBO has a modulator in their December forecast. From since the December of 2003, they have put less emphasis on the QBO, along with West African Rainfall.

Excellent research there! I have often seen work on the QBO affecting seasonal numbers but according to your research, not every modulator will work on decadal and multi-decadal scales.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The south west would then be the worst quad and still remain off shore.

I could be wrong, the direction of travel would make a difference.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The south west would then be the worst quad and still remain off shore.

I really do not want to sound stupid but why would it change from NE quad to SW quad?

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The south west would then be the worst quad and still remain off shore.

If a hurricane was tracking northbound up the west Florida coast, the eastern side is the strongest. But (in the rare event) it is tracking southwrad along the Florida west coast, then the western side is strongest and stays offshore.

Quoting atmoaggie:

This still shows the orange colors, has the current time: http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/incident_respons e/STAGING/loc al_assets/html/Skandi_ROV1.html

What are you guys looking at?

Looks like flames, upper right corner of rov feed, but can't be unless there is 02 a mile down. I suppose they could be welding something onto the so called cap, but I doubt it. Sure is curious though.

It looks like the tropical wave is getting sheared, and is not getting enough moisture.... personally, I think that this storm is a goner!

Quoting BtnTx:
Adios to permanently banned Cyclone Oz. I will miss him on this blog. He tested "pushing Admin" and lost. I guess you can say he asked for it. Oh well :(

I missed it, what happened?

Why did OZ get banned?

Sorry folks.
There are no local storms threatening at the moment.
What The Heck is going on with the flames at the leak cap?

That is flames no doubt!

Quoting BtnTx:
Adios to permanently banned Cyclone Oz. I will miss him on this blog. He tested "pushing Admin" and lost. I guess you can say he asked for it. Oh well :(

what happened to OZ?

Quoting F5Tornado:
Who would ban him I wonder, sounds like a politician leaked into this site as a secret moderator!

Will he still be available on the extremehurricane website? Really enjoyed taking the roadtrip with he and Amy not too long ago

Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


I really do not want to sound stupid but why would it change from NE quad to SE quad?

The heading of the hurricane. If talking about the west coast of FL, they are typically heading N to NE so I was wrong before, in that cast it would be the SE that was the strongest. Coming back to me now. It is always the east side that is stronger. Cane heading west, Northeast Quad, Cane heading east, Southeast Quad.

TUTTs go hand-in-hand with tropical waves. Tropical waves interacting with these features is actually a wave model in its self (the other two being inverted-v wave model and african wave model). It is this interaction that brings rains and weather to the Caribbean islands. They are important to our rainy season.

oz being banned had something to do with the admin's on here. he did something they didn't like. but he's on facebook.

but even cooler weatherunderound is on facebook!

Oil Cap burning!
Please help me see what is going on!

(9th video link down list!

Link

Quoting hydrus:
1966 Alma? The one that had 130 mph sustained winds in early June? Monster Flora killed thousands.

Not 1966.
We are talking Trinidad&Tobago.
Alma was a tropical storm (cannot remember the year, maybe 1969?
And Flora hammered Tobago in ?? cant remember that either! But before Alma. I was a youngster then. In the 50's maybe.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The heading of the hurricane. If talking about the west coast of FL, they are typically heading N to NE so I was wrong before, in that cast it would be the SE that was the strongest. Coming back to me now. It is always the east side that is stronger. Cane heading west, Northeast Quad, Cane heading east, Southeast Quad.

Thanks man. I appreciate your time.

irony at the gas pump...

Quoting WaterWitch11:
oz being banned had something to do with the admin's on here. he did something they didn't like. but he's on facebook.

So, it's just Oz that's been banned ..I dont see Patrap or Drak on here and they are usually around? And thanks for the info

Here are the results:

It's a five year cycle from West to East with the furthest west year being labeled the "A" year, and the furthest East year labeled the "E" year.

1995, A "D" year:


We see that in 1996, the "E" year, the average track has shifted slightly to the east.


In 1997, the cycle begins at an "A" year. The track resets to the west.


In 1998, the track does bulge further west than in 1997, but if the line were to be smoothed you would notice the average is in fact further east. This is a "B" year.


In 1999 we see that the track shifts to the east. A "C" year.


In 2000, the track continues to shift east slightly. A "D" year.


In 2001, the track reaches the end of its eastward trek. An "E" year.


It all starts over again in 2002 with an "A" year. Notice how far west the average track has gone.


Back to the east a little in '03. "B" year.


A little more to the east in 2004. "C" year.


In 2005 the track stays in about the same place, but with more storms occurring further east than in 2004. (This is the only outlier in the set, and it's not even very far off at all.) "D" year.


In 2006, it's hard over to the east again. An "E" year.


In 2007 is restarts in the west. "A" year.


2008. "B" year.


2009. "C" year.


...which means this year we should be looking at an average track slightly to the east of last years :)

Quoting pottery:

Not 1966.
We are talking Trinidad&Tobago.
Alma was a tropical storm (cannot remember the year, maybe 1969?
And Flora hammered Tobago in ?? cant remember that either! But before Alma. I was a youngster then. In the 50's maybe.

Alma was in 1970, actually. :)

When imagining this quadrant thing, I use some imagination that prevents me from getting confused about which quadrant is strongest.

If a tropical cyclone is stationary with a perfectly symmetrical isobaric pattern, in each quadrant the wind speed swirling into the center of low pressure is the same.

Now (in the northern hemipshere), I imagine the storm moving westward at 5 mph (the center of low pressure is moving at 5 mph). The circulation is counter-clockwise into the low pressure. On the north side, winds are moving westward while spiraling into the low pressure. With the low pressure center moving westward, the winds have to go 5 mph faster to rush into the low pressure center.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


My two cents on that is that this most of that is due to the regular period of the El Nino-La Nina oscillation. All the years you mention that the tracks are farthest east were El Nino years, and all the years the tracks are farthest west are La Nina years (except for 2002).

El Nino is a warmer Pacific Ocean, which leads to upper ridging over the Pacific. Relatively lower upper pressures to the east of the Pacific (i.e. in the Atlantic) implies a dominating upper trough pattern, and these upper troughs would keep storm tracks farthest east. La Nina is the exact opposite, and keeps tracks in the Atlantic farthest west.

This is a good hypothesis for sure. Check out what I just posted...

Quoting pottery:

Not 1966.
We are talking Trinidad&Tobago.
Alma was a tropical storm (cannot remember the year, maybe 1969?
And Flora hammered Tobago in ?? cant remember that either! But before Alma. I was a youngster then. In the 50's maybe.

Flora was in 1963.