Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

La Niña by July?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:42 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010

El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.

Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

Figure 4. The oil spill on June 6, 2010 at 8:32pm EDT, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Italian Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) satellite. A large region of oil was a few miles offshore of Pensacola, Florida. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Today's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

I may take a break from blogging Wednesday, as I've got some catching up to do on other duties.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Summaries

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2151. JLPR2 08:06 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting Caribbeanislands101: We might get a hurricane a San Felipe down here this year, you never know With how warm the Eastern Atl is and below normal MSLP I guess its possible, a cat 5 in the CATL is uncommon Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

2152. EricSFL 08:07 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Is the convection on the wave shear enhanced? Member Since: Maggio 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759

2153. stormpetrol 08:09 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Piece of energy coming off the Columbian coast into SW Caribbean might bear watching. Member Since: Aprile 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6404

2154. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 08:12 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
its waning anyway Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

2155. weathermancer 08:12 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Anyone know the diff. between Fujita and Enhanced Fujita. I know the winds are structured differently, but why enhance it at all? Member Since: Agosto 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

2156. wunderkidcayman 08:13 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Hey stormpetrol what up b ay we need rain what do you think and yes that piece of energy does need watching Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5500

2157. SLU 08:13 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting EricSFL: Is the convection on the wave shear enhanced? Well as far as I see the wave is using the conditions (warm SSTs and moisture) to generate it's own convection. Member Since: Luglio 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2851

2158. weathermancer 08:15 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
ahhhh... wave near Leeward Islands starting to get a tad juicy. Member Since: Agosto 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

2159. TampaTom 08:18 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
1989 - June 24 - 11 storms 1988 - May 30 - 12 storms 1987 - May 25 - 7 storms 1986 - June 5 - 6 storms 1985 - July 15 - 12 storms 1984 - June 11 - 13 storms 1983 - July 29 - 4 storms 1982 - June 2 - 6 storms 1981 - May 6 - 12 storms 1980 - August 1 - 11 storms 1979 - June 11 - 9 storms 1978 - July 30 - 12 storms (Yes, there was as subtropical one on Jan 18...) 1977 - Aug 29 - 6 storms 1976 - May 21 - 10 storms 1975 - June 27 - 9 storms 1974 - June 22 - 11 storms 1973 - July 1 - 7 storms 1972 - June 14 - 7 storms 1971 - July 4 - 13 storms 1970 - May 17 - 10 storms 1969 - July 25 - 18 storms 1968 - June 1 - 8 storms 1967 - August 28 - 8 storms 1966 - June 4 - 11 storms 1965 - June 11 - 6 storms 1964 - August 5 - 9 storms 1963 - July 31 - 9 storms 1962 - August 26 - 5 storms 1961 - July 20 - 11 storms 1960 - June 23 - 7 storms 1959 - May 28 - 11 storms 1958 - June 14 - 10 storms 1957 - June 25 - 6 storms 1956 - July 25 - 7 storms 1955 - July 31 - 13 storms 1954 - June 24 - 11 storms 1953 - May 25 - 14 storms 1952 - Feb 2 (!) - 7 storms 1951 - May 15 - 10 storms 1950 - August 12 - 13 storms Fair warning - before 1974, there be dragons. Neutercanes. Quasi-tropical systems. The works. So, I tried to count just storms that got names... I am so confused... Also, remember that before 1975 - no global GOES satellite coverage... Your mileage may vary... Member Since: Giugno 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1049

2160. weathermancer 08:18 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting stormpetrol: Piece of energy coming off the Columbian coast into SW Caribbean might bear watching. Yes... nice impulse. Been watching that since yesterday. Member Since: Agosto 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

2161. Snowlover123 08:18 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: XX/XX/XL MARK 12.8N/57.2W Hey, keeper, will this become Alex, do you think? -Snowy Member Since: Aprile 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2513

2162. tornadodude 08:19 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting weathermancer: Anyone know the diff. between Fujita and Enhanced Fujita. I know the winds are structured differently, but why enhance it at all? try this: link Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

2163. hydrus 08:23 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
..............Picture from San Felipe Hurricane 1928..Puerto Rico. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

2164. K8eCane 08:23 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
HI everyone coastal nc here...been blogging here since 2005 and love this site. Wilmington is having its Hurricane information and preparedness workshop this saturday. Members of the NWS, local meteorologists and local emergency preparedness officials will be onhand Member Since: Aprile 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2375

2165. winter123 08:25 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting Caribbeanislands101: yeah, it was back in 1989, Jeff Masters has very good story of Hugo back from when he was with the Hurricane Hunters, they almost didn't make it out of that storm. Um the storm in that image is spinning the wrong direction... It's a postcard? Why wouldn't they just use a satellite image?? Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

2166. SevereHurricane 08:25 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Its pretty funny how some of you are freaking out because we're nine days into the season and we haven't seen a storm yet. Just blatantly shows how little you know... It happens every year here at this time; nothing new. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

2167. EricSFL 08:26 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Nice image I found from NASA about the effects of sea level rise on southern Florida. Member Since: Maggio 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759

2168. clwstmchasr 08:28 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting weathermancer: ahhhh... wave near Leeward Islands starting to get a tad juicy. 50kt wind shear will squeeze the juice right out of the wave. Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2759

2169. EricSFL 08:28 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Second try... Member Since: Maggio 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759

2170. TampaSpin 08:28 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
I am on my smart phone and not looking say satellite loops, but is the island convection calmed down as I expected? Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2171. weathermancer 08:29 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting tornadodude: try this: link Cool... thanx! Member Since: Agosto 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

2172. weatherwatcher12 08:30 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting Caribbeanislands101: It's been years since the Caribbean has had a storm of that magnitude, in 1995 Luis came in pretty close, and then Lenny in 1999 Hurricane Dean (2007). A really big event for the central Caribbean and Mexico. Member Since: Maggio 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231

2173. 69Viking 08:33 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting Floodman: Hey viking! Long time! Yep been lost in other forums for a bit but I'll be checking back more frequently now, live too close to the water not to keep an eye on it! Member Since: Agosto 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247

2174. stormchic 08:34 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting hydrus: ..............Picture from San Felipe Hurricane 1928..Puerto Rico. Wow, I saw the same thing happen during Andrew 92. In Homestead Fl. Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

2175. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 08:37 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting stormchic: Wow, I saw the same thing happen during Andrew 92. In Homestead Fl. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

2176. Grothar 08:39 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting EricSFL: Nice image I found from NASA about the effects of sea level rise on southern Florida. Hey, look T-Dude, It has Florida under almost 50% under water Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19553

2178. stormchic 08:41 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: I remember those images on tv never knowing what I a was about to go through...something I'll never forget. Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

2179. JLPR2 08:41 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting hydrus: ..............Picture from San Felipe Hurricane 1928..Puerto Rico. yikes! But I'm more impressed by the fact that the palm tree is intact XD lol! Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

2180. HurricaneObserver 08:41 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting TampaTom: Fair warning - before 1974, there be dragons. Neutercanes. Quasi-tropical systems. The works. So, I tried to count just storms that got names... I am so confused... Also, remember that before 1975 - no global GOES satellite coverage... Your mileage may vary... Ok, I made a couple of charts. My picture is pending approval, but then it will show up here Link Member Since: Maggio 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 58

2181. JLPR2 08:42 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting stormchic: Wow, I saw the same thing happen during Andrew 92. In Homestead Fl. yeah, both were Cat 5's scary monsters they are :S Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

2182. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 08:42 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

2183. stormpetrol 08:42 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: Hey stormpetrol what up b ay we need rain what do you think and yes that piece of energy does need watching Hey wunderkid nothing much, just too hot man we need rain temp like 93 heat index 106 was in Belize last week tho much hotter there, don't want no storms but a good 2 day rain would do us real good here. Member Since: Aprile 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6404

2184. SevereHurricane 08:43 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: What about Ivan in 2004? Dean and Felix in 2007? Omar and Paloma in 2008? Gustav in 2008? What about Jeanne in 2004? Caribbean has had plenty more storms since the 90s \ Emily, Dennis, and Wilma '05 Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

2185. Torgen 08:44 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Ok, WHAT the heck is a "neutercane?" Member Since: Giugno 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 321

2186. hydrus 08:44 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting stormchic: Wow, I saw the same thing happen during Andrew 92. In Homestead Fl. <>img src="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:A Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

2187. hydrus 08:46 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

2188. TampaTom 08:46 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting HurricaneObserver: Ok, I made a couple of charts. My picture is pending approval, but then it will show up here Link Now, that's purty... Excellent work... Member Since: Giugno 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1049

2190. EricSFL 08:47 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds: Hey.Yeah I don't know why people are already saying it's a bust and we'er only nine days into the season.In 2008 no storms formed in july* but we all know how that season turned out.* Actually hurricane Bertha 2008 formed in July from a Cape Verde wave. Member Since: Maggio 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759

2191. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 08:47 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting hydrus: . Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

2192. TampaTom 08:48 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting Torgen: Ok, WHAT the heck is a "neutercane?" We're still trying to figure that one out... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutercane Member Since: Giugno 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1049

2195. stormchic 08:52 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: Keeper you're killing me with all these pics lol. I sooo remember this house. At the time the storm hit I had a beat up mustang, and my husband (ex now) had a new truck.He traded parking places with me thinking his truck would be safer in my spot...my car did fine. His truck had a telephone pole laying across it. And part of our house. Hmmm gotta love karma. :) Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

2196. TampaSpin 08:52 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting TampaSpin: I am on my smart phone and not looking say satellite loops, but is the island convection calmed down as I expected? I will answer my own question after looking, yes it has! Thanks for the assistance everyone! Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2197. EricSFL 08:53 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Georges '98 Member Since: Maggio 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759

2198. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 08:55 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting TampaTom: We're still trying to figure that one out... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutercane The term "neutercane" was coined by Bob Bundgaard for small subtropical cyclones which formed from mesoscale features. His friend Bob Simpson, director of NHC, adopted the term and began using it in seasonal summaries. However, when he began issuing public statements during the 1972 Atlantic hurricane season with the term 'neutercane', newspapers protested the term was "sexist". Bob White, administrator of NOAA at that time, ordered Simpson to cease use of the term and it fell into disuse.[3] Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

2200. EricSFL 09:02 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds: Whata coincodince.Everybody was talking about the two hurricanes I had watched a video about today.Hugo,and georges. I was living in Puerto Rico at the time when Georges came by. Very bad experience let me tell you. I was staying on the 14th floor of a building atop a hill. Thankfully none of the windows suffered damage, but the apartment was flooded with 2 inches of water and campletely damaged the tile floor and furniture. Parts of El Yunque rain forest were devastated. Member Since: Maggio 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 759

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