Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

La Niña by July?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:42 PM GMT del 08 Giugno 2010

El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.

Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

Figure 4. The oil spill on June 6, 2010 at 8:32pm EDT, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Italian Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) satellite. A large region of oil was a few miles offshore of Pensacola, Florida. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Today's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

I may take a break from blogging Wednesday, as I've got some catching up to do on other duties.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Climate Summaries

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1651. AussieStorm 02:16 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
ENSO Wrap-Up: Tropical Pacific Remains Neutral. Increased chance of La Ni�a in 2010. Link Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13255

1652. hydrus 02:18 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting hercj: Thanks, I'm moving in the right direction now. The Labor Day Storm was a tragedy that is hard to describe. There was 61 people in the Russell family. There were only 11 after the storm. Heart-wrenching events like this in small and peaceful communities that made a living from the ocean. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14220

1653. HurricaneSwirl 02:19 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting extreme236: Disturbance forms at 48 hours: More impressive at 120 hours: That wave that is coming off of Africa at 48 hours also looks interesting. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

1654. Grothar 02:19 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: 2%? are you NUTS? NHC will not be that aggressive, I say 1.5% at most as it enters the Carribbean! But the may stick with 1% so as not to alarm anyone unecessarily. That is outrageous, Jeff, anyone can see it is a 2%. LOL. Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19486

1655. extreme236 02:19 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting 7544: morning everyone this new island wave seems to be getting better organized imo could this be our next invest soon ? The TWO says it all...mostly likely it won't. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1656. extreme236 02:20 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl: That wave that is coming off of Africa at 48 hours also looks interesting. Yes it does. However, the GFS weakens it shortly afterwards. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1657. nrtiwlnvragn 02:20 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: hercj This is a poor photo of the Ivan Olsen boat in which a number of people from the Craig area just below the ferry landing rode out the hurricane. More important, it was Olsen's barometer that establish the still record low barometric pressure of 26.35 inches ever recorded over land in North America. The indicator was off the scale and Captain Olsen scratched marks along the brass rim which were later calibrated. THE NATURAL HISTORY ROOM The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane Page 10 http://www.keyshistory.org/shelf1935hurrpage10.html A reanalysis paper has this: "Captain Olson's boat weathered the storm by being fastened on the north side of the railroad embankment at Craig, near the north end of Long Key. The ships barometer was tested in Washington and showed it to be exceptionally responsive and reliable. It recorded a low pressure of 892 mb near 00 UTC" (MWR). Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8915

1658. hercj 02:20 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting indianrivguy: edit; caicos.. well done sir!! same Jerry Wilkinson! Thank you very much. There is a multitude of things that happened with this storm, not the least of which is that it for all intents and purposes ended Henry Flagler. I will follow up with this link. Member Since: Settembre 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1659. serialteg 02:24 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Many people are asking about the 0% thing ... as several here have mentioned previously, but it is worth reiterating: check out the context of the 0% statement, "NEAR" and "WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS" really nothing to be overly quizzical about. NHC has your back! tell them to give it back, i want to be able to move around Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

1661. hydrus 02:25 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting Grothar: That is outrageous, Jeff, anyone can see it is a 2%. LOL. Now watch it grow to a cat-3 when the shear is gone. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14220

1662. BDAwx 02:28 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
so the cold front passed yesterday. After bringing us almost a week of 80s it dropped our temperatures to a record breaking 65F and gave us a needed 0.10-0.33" of rain. :) Member Since: Agosto 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 509

1663. CaneWarning 02:30 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: I can't believe you would make such an observation when it is obvious that this is clearly a case of a 1% - 1.5% chance of development! What kind of basis do you have for your argument anyway, hmmm? You know people will read your entry and make life decisions based on it, so I find it reprehensible for you to make such a claim of 2% chance of development. I prefer you do not round off your numbers to just one decimal place. You should include at least 10, because this is a life or death situation. Member Since: Aprile 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

1664. ShenValleyFlyFish 02:32 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: I can't believe you would make such an observation when it is obvious that this is clearly a case of a 1% - 1.5% chance of development! What kind of basis do you have for your argument anyway, hmmm? You know people will read your entry and make life decisions based on it, so I find it reprehensible for you to make such a claim of 2% chance of development. I recommend folks copy and save this for later in the season. Then all that would be needed is to cut and paste numbers appropriate for the event at hand. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1665. sarahjola 02:33 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
yesterday the conditions in the Caribbean was just right for development and would be for a while. what happened? what has changed from yesterday that would make it impossible for this wave to develop? if it is a wave, isn't it already tropical? not being sarcastic, just don't know too much about weather. only what i read on here. i also don't see any of the people on here that said that right now. I'm just wondering what has changed so much since yesterday, and why would this tropical wave that has come all the way from Africa not be able to form in a virtual hot tub of a Caribbean? thanks in advance! Member Since: Settembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

1666. SQUAWK 02:33 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting 7544: morning everyone this new island wave seems to be getting better organized imo could this be our next invest soon ? Here is the reason for the "near 0%" in the TWO. The NHC reads this blog and wanted to allay all the fears of the "blob watchers" in here. LOL Member Since: Dicembre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497

1667. RitaEvac 02:33 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Hurricane forecast: "Nuttin" Member Since: Luglio 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8874

1668. Grothar 02:33 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: I can't believe you would make such an observation when it is obvious that this is clearly a case of a 1% - 1.5% chance of development! What kind of basis do you have for your argument anyway, hmmm? You know people will read your entry and make life decisions based on it, so I find it reprehensible for you to make such a claim of 2% chance of development. OK, I'll back down. I'll go with 1.5% for the time being, but you better be right. Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19486

1669. Ossqss 02:36 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Howdy, here is a nice interactive cool tool if anyone is interested :) L8R http://www.stormpulse.com/ Member Since: Giugno 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1670. CaicosRetiredSailor 02:37 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting hercj: Thank you very much... I will follow up with this link. ----------- http://www.keyshistory.org/35-hurr-war-dept.html War Department letter summarizing hurricane data collected in the Keys, "WAR DEPARTMENT "UNITED STATES ENGINEER OFFICE "POST OFFICE BUILDING "JACKSONVILLE, FLA. "Refer to file no. P.E. 167.3 "March 30, 1939 - "Subject: Hurricane data, Florida Keys - September 2, 1935. - "To: The Chief of Engineers S. Army, Washington, D. C. - "Copy to: The Division Engineer, South Atlantic Division, Richmond, Va. - "1. In compliance with instruction's contained in Division Engineers telegram of March 23 1939, additional data is herewith pertaining to barometer reading barometers and estimate of accuracy of the instruments used during the hurricane of September 2, 1935, in the Florida Keys. ... "7. Low barometer reading at Craig, Milepost 451, the storm center as it passed over the keys, September 2, 1935, 8:20 to 9:25 p.m., 26.40 inches: Observers, Capt. Ivar Olsen, R. W. Craig and R. C. Jackson. This barometer was located by employees of this office and Capt. Olsen, the owner, agreed to turn it over to us for calibration. It was turned over to the Miami Weather Bureau for test readings. The Miami Weather Bureau corrected the reading to 26.38 inches, then sent it to the Weather Bureau at Washington, for further test. The Weather Bureau at Washington found the corrected reading to be 26.35 inches. As these men were exposed and in the open, no recording were made of readings, but the low point reached by the barometer pointer was marked on the barometer case. Member Since: Luglio 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5110

1671. 7544 02:37 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting SQUAWK: Here is the reason for the "near 0%" in the TWO. The NHC reads this blog and wanted to allay all the fears of the "blob watchers" in here. LOL im a blob watcher lol but u cant say it dosent look like its trying to get better organized and blobs do turn in to something bigger . thats how the storms are born . so imo blob watching is ok on my end Member Since: Maggio 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5921

1673. Hurricanejer95 02:38 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Wave under high shear (20-30 kts) Member Since: Agosto 30, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224

1674. ShenValleyFlyFish 02:38 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
I don't think Grothar or DesitanJeff should be making predictions for this particular event. Neither one is a Met. Member Since: Settembre 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1675. caneswatch 02:41 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: I don't think Grothar or DesitanJeff should be making predictions for this particular event. Neither one is a Met. Clap it up for this guy. Grothar has been tracking storms for a long while now so next time, please think before you speak. Member Since: Ottobre 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1676. indianrivguy 02:42 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: I don't think Grothar or DesitanJeff should be making predictions for this particular event. Neither one is a Met. where is your spirit of adventure? Member Since: Settembre 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1777

1679. sarahjola 02:44 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: I can't believe you would make such an observation when it is obvious that this is clearly a case of a 1% - 1.5% chance of development! What kind of basis do you have for your argument anyway, hmmm? You know people will read your entry and make life decisions based on it, so I find it reprehensible for you to make such a claim of 2% chance of development. lol! Member Since: Settembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

1680. SQUAWK 02:48 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
It is a shame that there are so many people on here that have 0% sense of humor and cannot identify humor when it hits them in the face. Member Since: Dicembre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497

1681. Caribbeanislands101 02:50 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting 7544: morning everyone this new island wave seems to be getting better organized imo could this be our next invest soon ? not really Member Since: Aprile 7, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 347

1682. TexasGulf 02:52 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
The longer the high shear stays in place, the warmer the SST's will become. I actually hope we do have a few small tropical storms or even 1-2 Cat-1 hurricanes in June this year to take the heat out of the tropics, lowering the potential energy before the height of the season. We are only 1-week into the season, but the longer we go without tropical systems, the worse will be the storms that follow due to more heat energy remaining in the tropics. Member Since: Aprile 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 354

1683. Caffinehog 02:52 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Clearly, it has a 1.873% chance of development... or did nobody ever teach you about the use of significant figures? The Trinidad blob looks pretty sheared, although not seared enough to fully inhibit development. There is one sinificant positive for development: A lot of the convection is WEST of the wave axis, which significantly improves chances of development. Wait a few days, and we'll see if it gets better organized. Member Since: Giugno 5, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 39

1684. CaneWarning 02:53 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting SQUAWK: It is a shame that there are so many people on here that have 0% sense of humor and cannot identify humor when it hits them in the face. POOF (just kidding, that was a joke...) Member Since: Aprile 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

1685. wxmobilejim 02:53 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
3) The tropical wave approaching the islands is the first one from the African wave train that has started growing before reaching the islands. This may have a relatively far south southern track, but it still may get into the Gulf next week. Waves following should track a bit farther north as the month progresses. 4) A significant burst of west wind is interrupting the La Nina onslaught and this is a sign that the MJO is alive and kicking. Forecasted pressures in the SOI determination area are reversing later this week, but something significant is moving through there and its effect on the tropics may be something to deal with in a couple of weeks. Joe B Member Since: Maggio 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 230

1686. PcolaDan 02:53 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting SQUAWK: It is a shame that there are so many people on here that have 0% sense of humor and cannot identify humor when it hits them in the face. OUCH that hurts. What did I ever do to you. Oh wait, never mind. :) Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

1687. IKE 02:55 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting wxmobilejim: 3) The tropical wave approaching the islands is the first one from the African wave train that has started growing before reaching the islands. This may have a relatively far south southern track, but it still may get into the Gulf next week. Waves following should track a bit farther north as the month progresses. 4) A significant burst of west wind is interrupting the La Nina onslaught and this is a sign that the MJO is alive and kicking. Forecasted pressures in the SOI determination area are reversing later this week, but something significant is moving through there and its effect on the tropics may be something to deal with in a couple of weeks. Joe B Yeah...but what part of the GOM...BOC? Is it a possible threat to the underwater oil volcano? Maybe it's too far in advance to know? Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1688. Ossqss 02:56 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
edited :) LOL Member Since: Giugno 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1690. Canealum03 02:57 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Why is the Eastern Caribbean a so-called "dead zone" for tropical development? Member Since: Luglio 31, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 94

1691. IKE 02:57 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
non-tropical NAM run... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1692. srada 02:57 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Ha..I posted my first image!!Yeah! Member Since: Agosto 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772

1693. wxmobilejim 02:58 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting IKE: Yeah...but what part of the GOM...BOC? I would say BOC but I'm no expert. Member Since: Maggio 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 230

1694. SQUAWK 02:59 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting CapeVerdeCanes: Does anyone know when hurricane season ends? After the last hurricane. Member Since: Dicembre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497

1696. SQUAWK 03:00 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting Ossqss: LOL ROTFLMAO! Member Since: Dicembre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497

1697. tornadodude 03:00 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: I can't believe you would make such an observation when it is obvious that this is clearly a case of a 1% - 1.5% chance of development! What kind of basis do you have for your argument anyway, hmmm? You know people will read your entry and make life decisions based on it, so I find it reprehensible for you to make such a claim of 2% chance of development. .....sir :P Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

1698. Grothar 03:01 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting SQUAWK: It is a shame that there are so many people on here that have 0% sense of humor and cannot identify humor when it hits them in the face. Come on SWAWK, most of us have at least 1% of humor. How you doing? We do have to watch that blob. Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19486

1699. extreme236 03:01 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting 7544: im a blob watcher lol but u cant say it dosent look like its trying to get better organized and blobs do turn in to something bigger . thats how the storms are born . so imo blob watching is ok on my end I'd have to disagree, it looks like a sheared mass of convection. It will probably start to weaken later today. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1701. SQUAWK 03:02 PM GMT del 09 Giugno 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Quoting SQUAWK: It is a shame that there are so many people on here that have 0% sense of humor and cannot identify humor when it hits them in the face. I think what he means is so many people here have a low chance (NEAR 0% chance) of developing a sense of humor IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. that doesn't mean they won't develop a sense of humor as conditions become more favorable, just not within the next 48 hours. You just had to do the shower curtain. Poke the bear. LOL Member Since: Dicembre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497

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