Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Jeff9641:


I saw this on the NOGAPS yesterday IKE but we all know how the NOGAPS is with storms. If the ridge splits IKE as a result of a trough building down from the north then this could come to the Panhandle.

^-^

:)

It is far out in time...approaching a week. Too far out in time. Best to just wait and watch. Interesting though.

Quoting twhcracker:


i so agree with you! there were so many but most of them honestly just cooled things off ad helped the drought. but my gosh those bad ones, its terrifying to think of even ONE katrina hitting anywhere. and katrina was so horrible it overshadowed the rest. I have a friend that was in wilma and he kept saying "everyone is talking about nothing but katrina and we are devastated here..."so just one storm of tjat caliber would be terrible and two magnified exponentially. I completely agreem it wasnt the number of storms in 2005 but the intensity of even one of the worst ones!

Katrina would not have been as bad if it hit anywhere else. The storm surge it brought broke the levees which is why it was so devastating. A better analogy is HUGO and ANDREW. Andrew was a cat 5 monster that devasted south Miami and it formed very late in a very SLOW season.

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


It was still interesting to me. It probably doesn't take into account several factors that the tropical models do though.

Exactly. Plus, its on the outer ranges of its forecasting "nest".


The NAM does well with coastal storms and subtropical/non-tropical lows near the CONUS.

Morning all!

Quoting Jeff9641:


THe NWS of Tampa & melbourne actually mention the Euro as spliting the ridge as a trough builds down the east coast. The Euro however does not show this storm at all.

I've seen the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks. Both calling for above average rain in the lower SE USA. I haven't read the prognostic discussion as to why.

Probably a dying front or a weakness. Think I'll read it now.

Good Morning...

So we have some eyes checking out the TWAVE in the Windward Islands.

It does have the potential to at least become a TD assuming it sable to survive the shear to it's west (across the central Caribbean). Current conditions are of those of zero SAL to worry about... it has an OK to decent upper level divergence and low level convergence is OK.

or a slow moving storm like Mitch - that would surely be the worst of them all... Little bit too far out to be forecasting Alex from this wave, let's just keep an eye on the wave

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 08 2010

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 18 2010

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN
FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS PREDICTED FOR THE SOUTHERN
CONUS WITH A STRONGER LARGE SCALE TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22 2010

THE MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
ARE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. DURING WEEK TWO, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE
GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL FORECAST A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS.

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND IS SUPPORTED BY NAEFS.

Quoting hurricanejunky:
Morning all!

Good Afternoon!

Morning everyone!

Looks like we have something to track! I tell you, though, when I read the TWO I was like, "What?" I even went back to see if it had maybe like a 10% chance at 2 AM and then died down.

I do think they're implying that this won't develop in the next 48 hours, but we might want to watch it afterwards.

g'morning!
for the record, when it was at 35L, sailingallover said he thought the AOI (currently at 0% in 48) was somepin to watch.
of course, no one here is keeping score...

Looks like Pottery's going to get more rain.
IRLoop

Any chance this wave will have a invest up in 2-3 days?

BTW, we need a name for this wave other than "The Windward Islands Wave". How about "Zero Wave" since it's at a 0% chance.

Great, now I'm thinking of that Zero Wing thing...

All your waves are belong to us.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Any chance this wave will have a invest up in 2-3 days?

Yes near a 0 % chance for the next 48 hours

Tropical Wave near Windward Islands
Jun 9, 2010 8:07 AM

As of Wednesday morning, EDT, the strongest tropical wave in the Atlantic was centered near 12 degrees North and 58 degrees West. This is just east of Barbados, Granada and St. Vincent. This wave will cross these islands today with 1-3 inches of rain and wind gusts up to 40 mph. However, this system is experiencing strong shear, so development of this tropical wave is not expected.

A few tropical waves have moved off the Africa Coast in recent days. They have been weakening due to strong wind shear, but the tropical waves were strong over Africa. This area will have to be watched due to warmer than usual water. However, shear is expected to remain strong. During most tropical seasons, the eastern Atlantic doesn't become active until the late summer months.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Any chance this wave will have a invest up in 2-3 days?

Could become an investigation area BUT very little chance at any significant development as shear/surface pressures are still quite high across tha area.Upper conditions (could) be somewhat favorable went it makes it to the western caribbean.

Quoting cg2916:
BTW, we need a name for this wave other than "The Windward Islands Wave". How about "Zero Wave" since it's at a 0% chance.

Great, now I'm thinking of that Zero Wing thing...

All your waves are belong to us.

What the heck let's just call it "Ghost Storm Ana" Im sure some of our bloggers who were here last year will appreciate that haha!

Where's the dust?

Preliminary discussion from the CARIBBEAN FORECAST DISCUSSION

Excerpt:

IN THE SHORT RANGE...AS THE TUTT MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...TROPICAL WAVES ENTERING THE ISLAND CHAIN
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS 14N/15N...WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR JUNE
(MORE COMMON IN AUGUST-OCTOBER). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...I EXPECT SOME OF
THEIR MOISTURE TO MAKE IT TO THE FORECAST AREA ON DAY 02 (FRIDAY).
POSITIVE INTERACTION WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS WITH
THE TUTT ALOFT WILL POSSIBLY MAKE IT QUITE INTENSE...IF NOT
EXPLOSIVE...PRECIPITATION EVENT.

I don't TRULY see anything possibilities out there within the next 48hrs. The wave approaching the Island Chains is in way to much Shear. As thurderstorms have been enhanced by the stronger shear and will die out soon. The only thing to truly watch if your a die hard would be the tailend of the cold front off the tip of Florida as that is in lower shear and something might try to develop in the trough of low pressure that has stalled. Nothing else appears possible to me IN MY OPINION!

Good morning folks

The wave everyone is watching this morning will be a rain maker but has little chance of developing until it reaches beyond 78 West. The eastern Caribbean is hostile at the best of times and this early in the season we would look to the Southern and Western Caribbean for development.

Historically, over the past 25 years or so less than 10 TDs have formed in the eastern Caribbean and those that did form were either peak season CV waves or spawned by lows on the tail end of late season fronts in the October/ November time frame.

Add to that the high levels of shear that dominate all the way to near Jamaica.

Once near 78W things could change but for now just something to follow.

The GFS puzzle is why it takes this disturbance across the Caribbean and parks it over the Gulf of Honduras for at least two days-towards the end of next week. It may be related to a blocking ULL over the BOC (?)

What I do see is healthy waves for early to mid June. Ominous sign?

Quoting IKE:
What I do see is healthy waves for early to mid June. Ominous sign?

YEP for sure.....LOOK OUT JULY!

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning folks

The wave everyone is watching this morning will be a rain maker but has little chance of developing until it reaches beyond 78 West. The eastern Caribbean is hostile at the best of times and this early in the season we would look to the Southern and Western Caribbean for development.

Historically, over the past 25 years or so less than 10 TDs have formed in the eastern Caribbean and those that did form were either peak season CV waves or spawned by lows on the tail end of late season fronts in the October/ November time frame.

Add to that the high levels of shear that dominate all the way to near Jamaica.

Once near 78W things could change but for now just something to follow.

Agree. 40kts of shear will prevent anything from forming in the Eastern Caribbean.

Quoting IKE:
What I do see is healthy waves for early to mid June. Ominous sign?

What I am really waiting to see is where the A/B high sets up. In this regard it is critical whether we transition into La Nina, which seems to be where we are heading, or whether the fall off stalls at Neutral. La Nina would likely see the A/B ridge push back to very near the East coast and at times bridge across to the GOM. That scenario would be extremely dangerous in a year with potent easterly waves and lead to more landfalling systems in both the Caribbean and the US.

Back later. Have a great day.

Quoting kmanislander:


What I am really waiting to see is where the A/B high sets up. In this regard it is critical whether we transition into La Nina, which seems to be where we are heading, or whether the fall off stalls at Neutral. La Nina would likely see the A/B ridge push back to very near the East coast and at times bridge across to the GOM. That scenario would be extremely dangerous in a year with potent easterly waves and lead to more landfalling systems in both the Caribbean and the US.

But could a La Nina make the high strong enough to keep the storms down in the Caribbean and away from the U.S. like in 2007 with Dean and Felix? Not like a major landfall there is better than anywhere else, just wondering if we could have a similar scenario.

Quoting kmanislander:


What I am really waiting to see is where the A/B high sets up. In this regard it is critical whether we transition into La Nina, which seems to be where we are heading, or whether the fall off stalls at Neutral. La Nina would likely see the A/B ridge push back to very near the East coast and at times bridge across to the GOM. That scenario would be extremely dangerous in a year with potent easterly waves and lead to more landfalling systems in both the Caribbean and the US.

Odds are that's what is going to happen.

Quoting kmanislander:


What I am really waiting to see is where the A/B high sets up. In this regard it is critical whether we transition into La Nina, which seems to be where we are heading, or whether the fall off stalls at Neutral. La Nina would likely see the A/B ridge push back to very near the East coast and at times bridge across to the GOM. That scenario would be extremely dangerous in a year with potent easterly waves and lead to more landfalling systems in both the Caribbean and the US.

Kman you are exactly correct......the strength of the A/B High and its location is the entire key to this years season.....actually it usually always is.....if it too strong it would also imped some development and keep everything south of the ConUS and Mexico will get STorm after Storm hitting it. WE will see very soon my friend.....First of July will tell us a bunch.

I think one thing can be guaranteed, and that is, unlike last year, we will get our first named storm before August 15th. There's no way a wave won't take advantage of these well above average favorable conditions well before that date..

Katrina did hit somewhere else and not New Orleans. You might want to check out pictures of our Mississippi Gulf Coast before and after Katrina. You will see devastation. Our coastline was like an Etch-A-Sketch after shaking it: We were nearly completely wiped out to a blank slate!

Quoting gator23:


Katrina would not have been as bad if it hit anywhere else. The storm surge it brought broke the levees which is why it was so devastating. A better analogy is HUGO and ANDREW. Andrew was a cat 5 monster that devasted south Miami and it formed very late in a very SLOW season.

XX/XX/XL
RE-MARK
12.3N/55.2W

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I think one thing can be guaranteed, and that is, unlike last year, we will get our first named storm before August 15th. There's no way a wave won't take advantage of these well above average favorable conditions well before that date..

Been saying this for 2 weeks now.....JULY will come in with a bibbadi....Boom......as MJO returns into the Atlantic Basin about the 1st or 2nd week in JULY. GET READY for the quick ride!

Hey Senior Chief, you up for a question?

Does that look like an L off the coast of africa

Nice consolidation on that wave seems that its about to hit 40knts of shear though. Not that it matters for the Antilles anyway squally weather would be expected to those in the way.