Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Why does the Atlantic Hurricane Season begin June 1 and not later?

EURO has the weak low that the GFS forms in the Atlantic, but much further south and more realistic as it hits SA in 180 hours..

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Actually, his handle "TropicalWave" was already banned earlier in the week, and we enjoyed a nice 48 hours without him. He was actually patient enough to wait and come back under the same handle, only to be banned again some 12 hours later XD

Admin is getting better about getting rid of him. I applaud them. :)

Quoting Chicklit:
Dr. Masters is about to go on the air:
Today's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Beat me to it! Hurricane Haven

Quoting IKE:


In 12 hours? That's close to a record on here.

Quoting IKE:


In 12 hours? That's close to a record on here.

Lol, well, he is the one who set those records after all.

Is there an iPhone app for the Hurricane Haven broadcasts?

The Sahara isn't like Death Valley or the Atacama Desert in Chile. They do have rain... on occasion. I haven't studied the dynamics of that, though, and I couldn't say if this current convection is normal for the desert or not. The most recent rainy season for the African Sahel was quite wet, though, so this is probably connected in some way.

can you post images?

Wave off South America looks interesting

Quoting StormW:


Yes...The NAO is based on the strength of the Icelandic Low, and Azores high. A negative NAO is attributed to a weaker Icelandic Low, and weaker Azores High. As far as the potential threat to the east coast, that largely depends on the fluctuation in the NAO, and how and where the Azores High is situated at any given moment. I've been looking at some things, and I haven't completed yet, but looking at NAO mean values, it appears when it is transitioning toward or to positive from a negative, during that phase, seems like we see more U.S. landfalls.

Storm, thanks. See I actually did learn a little something last semester!

Quoting reedzone:
EURO has the weak low that the GFS forms in the Atlantic, but much further south and more realistic as it hits SA in 180 hours..

Yep i would bileive the euro before i bilieve the gfs any day but dont discount the gfs.

Quoting StormW:


Yes...thanks Admin!

Hey storm hows it going.

The radio program is on now! Dramatic intro! He's on Skype.

Manatees and sea turtles are at high risk due to the oil.

Link

It is still amazing to me that a Cape Verde wave is attracting the models' attention at all in the first half of June. This is going to be a wild year.

Quoting STORMTOP2:


Good to see you Flood.

The pleasure is all yours, I can assure you...I have to tell you, STORMTOP2 is pretty imaginative...LOL

Quoting StormW:


Good!

Thats great to hear im concerned about the early part of july i thinhk thats when we will get alex

i see it's cleaning up a little in here... :D
think i'll start reading the blog again.

Was down at Navarre's new fishing pier this morning, water was clear, fish were biting and beach goers were out. Only said part was the 20-30 orange vested workers walking around looking for tar balls. They did not appear to have much in the bags that they were carrying

Quoting Minnemike:
i see it's cleaning up a little in here... :D
think i'll start reading the blog again.

It's safe to come out for at least the next 24 hours! :)

well well well

Photo that was e-mailed to me today.

I dont think the GFS is totally out to lunch on this one

The conditions are like what we would see in late-July or early August, at a time where we definitely could see CV development

I do think whatever does form if anything would stay weak and largely would have more of an impact down the road in adding energy to the Caribbean

I would not be shocked if we got an invest out of the area the GFS is looking at considering the conditions

Quoting BayouBorn1965:
Why does the Atlantic Hurricane Season begin June 1 and not later?

In the Atlantic, June 1 is when you typically see sea surface temperatures warm enough, wind shear start to die down and other conditions prime for the season.

This doesn't mean that storms won't happen before June 1, or they won't wait a few months until they start... it's just a convenient date to alert people to start expecting storms.

In the Eastern Pacific, the season starts May 15... a few weeks earlier.

Quoting bystander:
Edit Failed!
Photo that was e-mailed to me today.

Sorry. Still can't figure out how to post image.

Quoting StormW:
To further touch on the question as to whether or not transition to La Nina so quickly will impact numbers...here are SST anomalies for June 09, 1998...still not fully transitioned



And SST Anomalies as of June 07, 2010



Here is the 1998 season:

Notice how all the heat wasn't focused in the tropics in 1998 as it is this year.

Quoting BayouBorn1965:
Why does the Atlantic Hurricane Season begin June 1 and not later?

Because -most- of the time the first storm of a season occurs June 1st or later.

xcool

Quoting StormW:


No...in 1998 we transitioned to a La Nina rather quickly...had 14 named that year.

Well I meant in terms of lowering the numbers from say 20-22 if we had stayed neutral to about 14-17 if we go to La Nina?

Could the quick transition to La Nina give us a few less storms than if it stays Neutral?

How is everyone today?? Just in and out today (busy at work)

Were kind of reaching for things here. I'll be back & posting once we have a invest out there. Until then take care everyone.

Quoting shauntanner:
Post questions for Jeff in this blog.

Dr. Masters, how do you feel about the possibility of TC development of the wave off of Africa?

Dr. Masters is taking questions now. You can also call 415-983-2634.

One last question, where can I listen to the show at?

Wow. The blog really has cleaned up a lot in the past day. I read 15 comments in a row that were actually tropically pertinent.

As for the wave the models are picking up on... We should watch the trends of the itcz over Africa. The euro is suggesting it is pulled to the north more slowly than the gfs forecasts. If we see it moving northward more quickly than it has been recently then the gfs is the one to watch.

Dr M, how does the SAL season seem to be stacking up against climatology so far this year? Are we really going to have a reduced amount/duration of SAL, or closer to normal.

Quoting shauntanner:
Post questions for Jeff in this blog.

You say that we may never have another 2005 hurricane season. Is it possible to have another Hurricane Katrina?

Quoting Jeff9641:


Not really does 1999 ring a bell.

1999 had 12 named storms though,

I am talking about the differences between a 21 named storm season and say 15 named storms

In the end it does not matter much, but having say 4-5 less storms could matter

Question for Jeff. It seems all of the ingredients are in place for a over active season. Can you for see anything stopping an over active season from happening at this point?