Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

From the last blog:

I just saw on TV where they said there is a large oil sheen west of Tampa. They failed to mention it is 150 miles away. No wonder tourists aren't coming here.

Thanks Dr. M - Looks like regardless we are in for an active year.

On edit: What were the SSTs like in 1998. If we have much hotter SST's wouldn't that indicate that we may have more intense Hurricanes than 1998?

it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.........from Dr. Masters.


That may be what happens this year. I don't see 23 storms happening, but I could be wrong.

Have a nice day!

Great Update Dr. Masters!!

1998 was not a good year for coast of NC..we got hit by Hurricane Bonnie..came in a Cat 3..

I agree that 2005 skewed the numbers for neutral years.

Quoting Dakster:
Thanks Dr. M - Looks like regardless we are in for an active year.

On edit: What were the SSTs like in 1998. If we have much hotter SST's wouldn't that indicate that we may have more intense Hurricanes than 1998?

IT's a good start, but there are a great many other factors involved as well: MJO presence or absence, SAL levels, condition and position of the AB high (though that has more to with track than intensity) etc.

How are you doing this morning, Dak?

I don't think we'll see 23 either. I remember 1998 had some really awful storms for the islands.

Just looking at 1998 they had some bad names that are now retired from other seasons.

Quoting CaneWarning:
I don't think we'll see 23 either. I remember 1998 had some really awful storms for the islands.

Just looking at 1998 they had some bad names that are now retired from other seasons.

I picked 13-7-4. I'm probably under on the 13 total. I could see 16 to 18.

I think it will be a bad season. More heartache for some, if not a lot.

Oz, ya changed the avatar! Who you calling punk?

Quoting CycloneOz:
Again, looking at the 1998 analog of charted tropical systems, the only thing that seems strikingly different from that year and this year's likely setup is all the storms that curved out along the east coast of the CONUS.

If the Bermuda high is strong and a bit more south and west this year...the CV storms that form won't be taking that route.

They'll either wind up in the Gulf or plowing right into Florida.

Hi

Im still learning but what exactly pulls or curves the storm when its strong..is that a trough, front or high..I thought the more powerful a storm the more its pulled by the high or trough?

1998 was definitely an interesting year, that's for certain. I remember doing prep for Georges, although we didn't get it and then Mitch became a monster and stalled near Honduras and we thought it was history. Low and behold it re-generated somewhat and made a beeline for Florida. We got tropical storm Mitch in the middle of the night. It was feisty even on the tail end of its existence...

Quoting CaneWarning:
I don't think we'll see 23 either. I remember 1998 had some really awful storms for the islands.

Just looking at 1998 they had some bad names that are now retired from other seasons.

Other than Georges, the Caribbean was quiet in '98,until Mitch affected Honduras in October with huge casualties.Looks like we may see similar conditions thru 2010?

Quoting srada:


Hi

Im still learning but what exactly pulls or curves the storm when its strong..is that a trough, front or high..I thought the more powerful a storm the more its pulled by the high or trough?

Storms are pushed away by high pressure. They are drawn to low pressure (generally). The two act in concert to steer storms.

Welcome to Definitely*More Fun Than Two ExxonValdezes Day (* definitely new info at bottom)
Or yet another reason why the BP CEO's pronouncements makes ya grind yer teeth and growl.

In 2005, TropicalStorm Arlene reached near-hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico on June10th. And passed near what is now the DeepHorizon spill area before making landfall at the extreme western end of the Florida panhandle on June11th.
Comparisons with the day when TropicalStorm Arlene began spinning up on 8June2005

8Jun2010

8Jun2005

8June2010

8Jun2005

8June2010


Other major US-affecting offshore blowouts averaged 8,000to10,000barrels per day over 10days at Santa Barbara, and 11,000to12,000barrels per day over 295days at Ixtoc I.
Initial spill rate from Ixtoc I into the Gulf of Mexico was ~30,000barrels per day.
The ExxonValdez wreck spilled ~11million gallons or ~262,000barrels in total.

Three different methodologies used by UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey assessment teams have independently arrived at a minimum spill rate of 12,000barrels per day:
the surface survey team came up with 15,500plus-or-minus3500 barrels per day;
the plume velocity team came up with 18,500plus-or-minus6500 barrels per day;
and the third team's study remains incomplete and its methodology unannounced.

Using the agreed-upon 12,000barrels per day minimum, the DeepwaterHorizon will have spilled two times as much as the ExxonValdez a bit after noon on 3June2010
Using the 17,000barrels per day average of two studies, the DeepwaterHorizon will have spilled three times as much as the ExxonValdez before dawn on 6June2010
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Somewhat New Info - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
But cutting the BlowoutPreventer's riser increased the flow rate by ~20%.
So adding 20% extra to the old numbers:
the new minimum flow rate would be 14,400barrels per day;
and the new average flow rate would be 20,400barrels per day.
Subtracting the 10,000barrels per day being recovered:
some amount between 4400to10,400barrels per day is still spilling into the Gulf...
...and I refuse to think about pessimistic projections.

BritishPetroleum's ChiefExecutiveOfficer claims that they "are recovering most of the crude oil" that is flowing out of the well. However, BP has not announced that they actually know the flow rate -- as opposed to their previous official "it's not important enough to bother finding out" -- or what that flow rate is.
And until they do make such knowledge public, I can only wonder how their CEO knows that more than half of the crude oil is being recovered, can only assume that he is engaging in wishful thinking.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Definitely NEW INFO - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen reported that BP's collection from the ruptured well...had kept 14,800 barrels (621,000 gallons) of oil from flowing into the Gulf in the past 24 hours, and...BP said it collected 42,500 barrels (1.8 million gallons) of oil...in the past four days."

That BritishPetroleum is now collecting 14,800barrels per day AND that there is still more crude oil gushing into the Gulf proves that the well had been spilling more than the agreed-upon minimum of the USGS estimates.

Quoting CycloneOz:


Hahahaha! I was hoping you'd get to read my little ditty from last night! LOL!

Are those Cat 4 winds or is it a 5?
Hurricane Harry don't take no jive!
Do you feel lucky, junk?
Well, do ya...punk?
Your choice may keep you alive!

Yeah, I went back a little.

I think we've made the right choices in protective gear. I'm still making mine but they're in line with what we've discussed. I think we're just about ready...

"Chance favors the prepared mind"
- Louis Pasteur

Hey Flood!!!!

Looks like another hot day here in in the DFW area.

Dave

Quoting IKE:
I agree that 2005 skewed the numbers for neutral years.

I agree as well. If you take out 2005 you get the same average as the La Nina years in total number of storms.

This thing had to be leaking a lot more than believed if they got 15000 barrels and it's still overflowing so badly.

BP: Containment cap collected 14,800 barrels June 7BY Reuters
— 10:12 AM ET 06/08/2010
HOUSTON, June 8 (Reuters) - BP Plc's (BP

Loading...


) seabed containment cap collected 14,800 barrels of oil on June 7, the highest capture rate yet since the system was installed last week, the company said on Tuesday.

The system captured 11,100 barrels in the previous 24-hour period. U.S scientists have estimated the that the leak reaches 12,000 to 19,000 barrels of oil per day, with one estimate as high as 25,000 barrels a day.

BP said the total amount of oil collected over four days is about 42,500 barrels. (Reporting by Kristen Hays, editing by Jackie Frank)

Morning thanks doc!!!,If 04' was a el nino year ,why so many storms???? seems more like la nina year numbers???

Thank You Dr........Interesting note on the relatively late start of the 1998 season in spite of the La Nina conditions in place by the Summer. In accordance with Dr. Klotzenbach's recent paper on storm "clusters", we don't know when the first one this season will form, but once it does and even perhaps in July or August, then a quick succession of storms will start to flow from there in groups spread out over a few weeks (perhaps a cluster of a few in the Caribbean and Gulf in late July-early August, then, another cluster emerging from Africa during the peak of the CV season in late August through September).

OZ you are killing me this morning. LMAO

I lost a personal friend, Irving, in Hurricane Mitch in Honduras when he went down there to visit his Mother for a few weeks and he (but not his Mother) was washed away from the house durng a mudslide and his body was never found.

Quoting CycloneOz:


Lashing is not only allowed, but encouraged.

And in a hurricane, the ground is your friend. The faster you can hit it, the better.

OZ my friend you and I are both doing the same thing. Sitting on our hands and waiting, which by the way SUCKS!! Here is a tip however, take the top off the Capt Morgan place bottle to lips and partake of the nectar. It will help and tomorrow may bring bad weather. LOL

Thanks doc!

Folks, anything to that blob above the Dominican Rep?

11 hurricanejunky "Oz, ya changed the avatar! Who you calling punk?"

Scan blog1501post1189thru1205. BTW, CycloneOz, that placement was totally random.
I'd run across the photos earlier, and had been playing off&on (between watching Eastwood clips) with PreviewComment to format them into a first-pager for today. Hadn't refreshed for awhile, didn't know you were on, then accidentally hit PostComment instead of PreviewComment.
So where my post appeared could be considered by some to be signs&portents...

Quoting CycloneOz:


Yo! I've noticed there's never enough Glenfidich in the bottle! :D

Oh hell OZ its only June, we don't break out the 12 year old til at least July. LOL

Quoting CycloneOz:


LOL...so true. I'm enjoying Bud in the bottle right now. Got 10 bottles of Glenfidich loaded and ready to go, however!

Amazing that you knew the correct sequence! :D

Yeah well Im a Marine. Its in our training

Quoting CycloneOz:


You need to make a lash rope.

Can you email that to me?

Quoting CycloneOz:


Ah...incredible how we sort of become like brothers in a family. The military sure is thorough in its training.

And I should have been a Marine as tough as I was, but the Air Force said I was way smart. The compliment they paid me changed my life.

How true my friend. I am with an Air Force unit now and I am constantly reminding them of my superiority. The CO of course thinks the whole place went to hell the minute I arrived. lol