Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Called TWC rang about 14 times, no answer. I am rather peeved about this!!!
I just them TWC a nasty e-mail concerning their programming. I guess that the people of Illinois can't count on them for important information.
We really could do it too lol.
I could make the graphics....LOL.
Thanks for the update, please be safe and I pray the God keeps everyone safe :O)..
Some like this:
same, this is making me really angry
The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Washtenaw County in Southeast Michigan...
* until 1115 PM EDT
* at 1035 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous
storm was located near Brooklyn... and moving east at 40 mph.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Manchester around 1055 PM EDT.
Pleasant Lake around 1100 PM EDT.
Bridgewater around 1105 PM EDT.
Saline and Pittsfield Township around 1115 PM EDT.
The warning includes areas surrounding these locations...
Willis... Dixboro... Ypsilanti...
Saline... Manchester... Ann Arbor...
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or
outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
Lat... Lon 4236 8356 4209 8354 4208 8381 4208 8400
4207 8402 4207 8413 4229 8414
time... Mot... loc 0240z 269deg 34kt 4216 8422
I have Storm Stories on now....and in 7 minutes we should get PM Edition Weekend for an hour, but them crappy programming again begins at midnight.
I believe that a tornado is nearby Marshall, MI, south of Battle Creek, MI.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
950 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010
ILC091-060315-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-100606T0315Z/
KANKAKEE IL-
950 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN KANKAKEE COUNTY
UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...
AT 949 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF HERSCHER...OR 12 MILES EAST OF
DWIGHT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HERSCHER AROUND 955 PM CDT.
IRWIN AROUND 1000 PM CDT.
KANKAKEE CITY AROUND 1010 PM CDT.
AROMA PARK AND ST. ANNE AROUND 1015 PM CDT.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING STORM. PERSONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANKAKEE COUNTY SHOULD TAKE COVER
NOW!
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE BONFIELD AND IRWIN AND BRADLEY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO HAS PRODUCED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ALREADY. TORNADOES ARE
DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS TORNADO GET INTO A TORNADO SHELTER NOW!
&&
LAT...LON 4101 8766 4100 8805 4102 8825 4119 8824
4120 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 277DEG 34KT 4107 8817
$$
100% correct. NBC sucks. I hope they get bought out, and TWC gets back to the way it should. They only have like 10 OCM's now, and one is Al Roker.
TWC needs to be caned with a large bamboo cane soaked in brine!!
Nah, they're only kids. about 30 yrs old. I have kids in their late 20's.
Hah you have people dying in major cities, movie theaters collapsing, high schools being converted to morgues. And they are showing this crap with some untrained hippies running around. GOD IM ANGRY
Homewood, Illinois South of chicago
No...no...no. You're mistaken.
TWC is the supposed "Severe Weather Authority". LOL.....not!
TWC back on the air :O)!!!
Your catching the line of thunderstorms now?
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