Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Fay ruined many peoples lives in 2008 as well.
After seasons like 2004 and 2005, the states affected need a long break, like 10 to 20 years to get things back to the way they were before the storms and even then they will never be the same
Your reaction to that makes me sick, how you cold want a storm to hit is beyond me
Then again I am not surprised considering who you are and all.
Yes it is.
TORNADO WARNING
MEC001-017-052200-
/O.NEW.KGYX.TO.W.0001.100605T2116Z-100605T2200Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
516 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MAINE...
EASTERN OXFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN MAINE...
* UNTIL 600 PM EDT
* AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
PARIS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HEBRON AND GREENE.
OXFORD COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS SIGHTING A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS
STORM AND VERY LARGE HAIL...NEAR THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. THIS IS A
VERY DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU LIVE IN PARIS...OR IN A LOCATION OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BUCKFIELD AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HEBRON...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
PLEASE REPORT A TORNADO...HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
LAT...LON 4422 7007 4409 7013 4423 7057 4427 7053
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 286DEG 34KT 4424 7048
Just ignore them please and move on. Its best to let it go.
Thanks for some reason Im having trouble connecting to the nws site right now.
Im not sure, but Maine tornadoes are pretty rare when compared to most over states. This is probably catching the NWS offices of guard up there.
yeah you are deffinitly right, only storm to ever make 4 landfalls in one state
2008 was only 2 years ago, many areas in Central Florida were underwater after Fay and people lost everything. There are still people who are recovering from the Hurricanes of 2004 and 2005
Sorry but 5 years is nowhere near a long enough break for people in Florida or anywhere along the coast for that matter
But again considering who you are, I am not surprised by your reaction
No Development Over the Weekend
Jun 5, 2010 5:10 PM
The Atlantic basin looks to remain quiet, at least into the beginning of next week. There are several very weak waves well to the south, around 10 north. Looking out over the next few days, there looks to be no development with any of these waves. The Gulf and the Caribbean will remain relatively inactive outside of typical daytime thunderstorm activity.
By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Adam Douty and Andy Mussoline
That looks like an interesting read.
Opal 1995?
Hurricane Jeanne was a Category 3 and hit the East Coast of Florida
I'd imagine NCDC or The Tornado History Project has a pretty good list.
East to West; Opal hit the panhandle. I would say Frances and Jeanne were basically both major hurricanes when they hit; Frances hung around long enough, her impacts were that of a major storm.
either way this stupid comparison based on strength is ridiculous though. Fay was insignificant compared to the storms in 2004? Really?
Tell that to the people who lost everything because of the flooding Fay caused.
Jeanne was a major hurricane when it hit the East coast
Also Frances moving so slowly certain gave her the impact of a major as well
And Erin that same year.
The most significant damage from the second landfall in Florida was near Pensacola, where Erin made landfall, and Navarre Beach, where almost one-third of buildings suffered major damage.
Get use to it on this blog with a few of the "wishcasters".
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