Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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audubon.org
What are they pointing out there?
I don't anything interesting near where the blues are.
From the article....
"Tony Hayward cashed in about a third of his holding in the company one month before a well on the Deepwater Horizon rig burst, causing an environmental disaster.
Mr Hayward, whose pay package is £4 million a year, then paid off the mortgage on his family’s mansion in Kent, which is estimated to be valued at more than £1.2 million."
Thanks Pat.
Link
He saved himself a ton of money. Their stock has dropped like a rock.
ECMWF 12z 120 hours.
I don't think he's hangin em up....
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward, under growing pressure over the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, pledged to lead the company through the crisis with the backing of the board.
“My number one priority is to steer BP through this crisis, and that is exactly what I intend to do,” Hayward said on a conference call with investors today. He has received “extraordinary support” from the board, he said.
I noticed a low near Cape Verde. Any interest in it?
Sounds great to me.
African dust models
xcool
Good thing they have that sponge mop "thing-a- ma-jig" handy to wipe up any residual oil once they get it stopped. Kind off what I do when I change my car's oil. Wipe around the plug, make sure there is no leaks, etc. But I don't have a cool sponge like that.
I have a moderate interest in it. Is she single?
and my posts sheared them to pieces
Blog = dead, a sign that the Atlantic is dead...
(ITCZ
I'm checking in every few minutes from my cell phone. Not much to say since it's so quiet here. Enjoy it now, I remember when things were busy we'd have 50 comments every couple of minutes. It's hard to read that!
Yep... I am still here reading as I do most of the year. Still looking forward to Dr. M's insights into weather, oil spill, etc...
Now come September, whether this is a hyper active season or not - this place should be hopping as SOMETHING will be out there regardless.
I'm watching, but I can't tell what they are actually doing.
When it's like that, I start using the ignore button like crazy. I don't like to ignore people, so I take them back off after the storm is over.
And there's no stopping him....he always comes back.
If it's 50 a minute, you can't keep up with it then. You might as well be talking to a wall. Better off going to another blog that's a little slower.
It'll get real active in here when a major threatens in the Atlantic.
I believe an above average season is going to happen. Just not 23.
Most do, but when it's that busy I prefer to get ignore the few that don't.
Another site I was told about
nwf.org
50 comments * 60 minutes = 3000 comments
So that means if we get 50 comments a minute you'll be getting 3000 comments in an hour.
3000 comments in an hour * 24 hours of the day = 72000 comments
I don't think the website would survive 70,000 comments in one blog entry in just 1 day.
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