Tropical Storm Agatha one of the top ten deadliest Eastern Pacific storms on record
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season of 2010 is off to a bad start. The mounting death toll from Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha has made that storm one of the top ten deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of moisture inland that continue to be wrung out as heavy rains by the high mountains of Guatemala and the surrounding nations of Central America. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 83 people in Guatemala, 13 in neighboring El Salvador, and one in Honduras. Guatemala is also suffering from the Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, which began erupting four days ago. At least three people have been killed by the volcano, located about 25 miles south of the capital, Guatemala City. The volcano has destroyed 800 homes with lava and brought moderate ash falls to the capital.
Figure 1. Flood damage in Zunil, Quetzaltenango, in Guatemala on May 29, 2010, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. Image credit: Sergio Huertas, climaya.com
Agatha is the deadliest flooding disaster in Guatemala since Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. In a bizarre coincidence, that storm also featured a major volcanic eruption at the same time, when El Salvador's Santa Ana volcano blew its top during the height of Stan's rains in in that country on October 1. The eruption killed two and injured dozens, and worsened the mud flow damage from Stan's rains. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.
Figure 2. Two-day rainfall totals for Central America as estimated by satellite, for the period 7pm EDT Friday May 28 - 7pm EDT Sunday May 30, 2010. Rainfall amounts of 350 mm (14 inches, orange colors) were indicated for portions of Guatemala. The Guatemala government reported that rainfall exceeded 36 inches in some regions. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Tomorrow, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:
1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season
I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
I'll be back Tuesday with my first outlook for hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Oh obviously....since you live there lol.
Shear has weakened over the gulf yes but from 60 knots to 40 knots, and it won't go any lower than that. How do I know that? Because the subtropical jet hasn't moved, just weakened. The reason shear is less than yesterday is because the resistance along the subtropical jet in the gulf isn't as strong as it was yesterday with the upper features, but that doesn't mean the jet is just going to slow down to 10 knots. No, it's staying put....the trend of -20 knots the past 24 hours is not going to continue. Just look at the models.
Even beyond the models, satellite imagery reveals no upper feature that could cut open the subtropical jet within the next few days.
LOL
Jack might be over here visiting his parents in BR...a reasonable guess, anyway.
There appears to be 10-15 knots over the exact center of the system. There is anywhere from 5-20 knots affecting the entire system, increasing as you travel northward.
Thats pretty lame of you to suggest i use Tampa as a place of reference because i live there.....NICE!
The 12z vorticity maps made me wonder about that too, but with the surface center reforming to the east, the 850mb vort max should follow suit on ensuing maps. They could still de-couple, but supposing positive feedback sets in and the low deepens, the mid-level steering may take over and it won't be a problem for the surface center.
I would call it "fair", which is much better than it was yesterday. With upper divergence over the low, wind shear should not be too huge of a problem where it's at right now, but it may try to punch in some dry air from the west, which may end up being an inhibiting factor later on.
The subtropical jet is still screaming across the Southern Gulf with winds over 50kts. This will kill the possibility of a storm track north into the Gulf. Can moisture make it into Florida? Absolutely. Depending on what happens, we could see an increase in moisture by late Tuesday or Wednesday across south and central Florida.
nice loop
I don't mean to offend, but it is pretty obvious that you guys touting "low shear in the gulf" are overly-excited to get hit by a storm. That is a feeling I can understand, believe me....I cheer on snowstorms every winter here.
Try not to let that get in the way of your objectivity. It can be a problem. You are correct about the wind shear trend over the past 24 hours, but what about the next 24? Take a deeper look into it.
Doubt this gets a name as well, but a depression is likely by 5am tomorrow morning.
Don't forget
The Barometer Bob Show
Hurricane Hollow's Eye on the Storm, Beginning of the 2010 Hurricane Season Broadcast
Tuesday, June 1, 2010 at 8PM/ET
My guests will be Brian Lamarre, MIC/NWS/Tampa and Gene Hafele, MIC/NWS/Houston. We will be discussing the 2010 Hurricane Season. Get Ready Now, it's not IF but WHEN a hurricane will affect you!
Bro read what i said, i said a small window of opportunity from Tampa South with lower shear of possibly 20kts. Just what i see. We both know very well Shear Forecast is only good at best for 24-36hrs out and even 12 hours is only really good.
It looks like they are cutting off all the brackets and extraneous hardware around the riser in preparation for cutting it. That is guaranteed to be interesting!
Maybe so, guys. Thought it was worth a mention. But it won't take much southwesterly flow to decouple in an environment that may not be the best for deep convection. Appears to shedding outflows already.
Link
Then maybe a light bulb will go on in those BP heads and they will pump all the oil from one spot as it rises up the tube to the collection
ring!!!
Ahmen.......90L was over hyped something crazy like.....
Its current motion will take it right over Isla de Cozumel. However, if the system feeds back and strengthens, it may feel more of the mid-level steering and veer east a hair, staying farther away from the Yucatan coast.
We should get a good radar shot of it from Cancun radar later.
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