Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Good Afternoon all (this means "hello") LOL
Some decent rains here today about 1/2", from a TW passing through.

90L still out there in limbo?? Time to bury that one ...

The oil-spill news is badder and badder every day. Well, it would be would'nt it, with more and more oil being added every minute.
Looking forward the blog tomorrow which will be about how a Hurricane might affect the situation there.
I would imagine that the oil-filled sea-spray would result in an environmental hazard of vast proportions.

Words fail me, when I see the situation along the Coast........

Quoting Drakoen:
Upper level winds and sea-surface temperatures should be conducive for development per the SHIPS text in the Caribbean.

Its got some decent Heat Content on the Pacific side also.

Edit: Add

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 76% is 6.6 times the sample mean(11.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%)

Quoting CycloneOz:


Aye, aye...cyclone right ahead.

It does bode well for parts of Central America that are under flood and landslide risk already from previous days of rain.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I don't have a problem with being wrong on a forecast, anyone who tries to predict weather is going to be wrong at times. Its the other stuff that is added, that I feel is unnecessary.

On another note it has crossed my mind that the upgrade to the ECMWF may be causing it to be overagressive, but its only been one storm and I can remember in the past when it was also overagressive. So no real validity to it at this time, just a thought.

I keep reminding people of the ECMWTF years but it seems to have slipped many minds the past little while. GFS is bad about ghost storms ... ECM picks up well on genesis but has been bad about over intensifying in the past. CMC is just tropical crack .. keeps us goin' when everything else is boring and we need a something for the addiction =P

Pottery,

Ditto Post 401....

Words fail me, when I see the situation along the Coast........

Tropical Storm Risk Forecasts Active 2010 Hurricane Season

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) provides "real-time mapping and prediction of tropical cyclone wind fields worldwide." The firm is co-sponsored by Aon Benfield, with RSA and Crawford & Company. It has just released a "pre-season outlook report to coincide with the start of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season."

The timing was eerily prescient, as the first tropical depression of the season has formed in the Atlantic of the eastern coast of the U.S. [See IJ web site - http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/05/25/110138.htm]. TSR's report anticipates "Atlantic basin and U.S. land falling hurricane activity being 55 percent above the long-term (1950-2009) norm."

TSR is part of Aon Benfield Research's new academic and industry collaboration. It maintains its April and December forecasts for an active hurricane season. The bulletin noted that the pre-season outlook includes the following:
-- A 77 percent probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season; an 18 percent probability of a near-normal season, and only a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season.
-- 16 tropical storms including eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes. This compares to long-term norms of 10, six and three respectively.
For U.S. land falling activity, TSR forecasts:
-- A 74 percent probability of above-normal U.S. land falling hurricane activity; a 19 percent likelihood of a near-normal season, and only a 7 percent chance of a below-normal season.
-- Five tropical storm strikes on the U.S., including two hurricanes. This compares to long-term norms of three and 1.5 respectively.

The bulletin also explained that three main climate factors will determine the level of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. Occurring in August and September, these are "the speed of trade winds over the tropical North Atlantic, sea temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic, and the sign and strength of El Niño Southern Oscillation. U.S. land falling hurricane activity is influenced by the level of hurricane activity occurring at sea, the pre-season North Atlantic Oscillation, and by July tropospheric wind patterns over the North Atlantic and U.S."

Professor Mark Saunders at Tropical Storm Risk, indicated: "Every main climate indicator points to the 2010 hurricane season being active. If La Niña develops during the second half of 2010 the above-norm hurricane levels will be even higher."

John Moore, Head of International Analytics at Aon Benfield, added: "Although uncertainty remains within hurricane forecasts, the insurance industry is increasingly informed by this data source when considering how best to manage its exposure to this risk."

According to Steve Drews, associate director and lead meteorologist at Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe model development center of excellence within Aon Benfield, "TSR's pre-season outlooks correctly anticipated the active 2004, 2005 and 2008 hurricane seasons and the quiet 2009 season. 2004's hurricanes barraged Florida, 2005's hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma slammed the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida coastlines, and 2008's hurricane Ike affected the major Texas coastal cities of Galveston and Houston."

TSR's next hurricane forecast will be issued on 4 June. Professor Mark Saunders will also be updating the forecast for the 2010 hurricane season and revealing new technology to help (re)insurers manage tropical storm-related risks at Aon Benfield Research's event: The science behind hurricanes, earthquakes and other natural perils in London on 15 June.

TSRs Pre-Season Hurricane Forecast Report is available at: http://www.aon.com/attachments/reinsurance/201005_tsr_forecast_report.pdf .

Source: Aon Benfield



Read more: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2010/05/25/110165.htm#ixzz0oyJkvU30

Just like the large financial firms more or less own their regulators, we are now seeing clear evidence (and it's been around for a while) of

Regulatory capture by the oil industry

"friends since childhood" ... lovely

cyclone that isnt 10 days away

we are talking about 5 days

90L unlikely to amount to anything, Caribbean looks promising. 5/25/10

Sorry for the quick update, on the run. Comments are welcomed! :-)

You can see the curved band west of Costa Rica hooking into the circulation:

Quoting SouthALWX:

I keep reminding people of the ECMWTF years but it seems to have slipped many minds the past little while. GFS is bad about ghost storms ... ECM picks up well on genesis but has been bad about over intensifying in the past. CMC is just tropical crack .. keeps us goin' when everything else is boring and we need a something for the addiction =P

After its upgrade last year the CMC performed better, but last year was a difficult year for most models with all the shear. If predictions of an overly active year come true this year, it may be a better test of the CMC, along with the upgraded UKMET and scheduled upgraded GFS.

If 90E becomes Agatha will it keep the same name or turn into Alex when it cross over to the Atlantic side?

about time something to track .........

The timing was eerily prescient, as the first tropical depression of the season has formed in the Atlantic of the eastern coast of the U.S. [See IJ web site - http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/05/25/110138.htm]. TSR's report anticipates "Atlantic basin and U.S. land falling hurricane activity being 55 percent above the long-term (1950-2009) norm."

lol

Quoting TheCname:
If 90E becomes Agatha will it keep the same name or turn into Alex when it cross over to the Atlantic side?

It will be renamed Alex

Quoting TheCname:
If 90E becomes Agatha will it keep the same name or turn into Alex when it cross over to the Atlantic side?

It well become Alex

Hey All,

Well I'm in Pampa TX and will be ready to chase a storm to our south west.... Can anyone on here might give us a better location it sure would be very helpful


Thanks
Taco :o)

Quoting TheCname:
If 90E becomes Agatha will it keep the same name or turn into Alex when it cross over to the Atlantic side?

Quoting Weather456:
The timing was eerily prescient, as the first tropical depression of the season has formed in the Atlantic of the eastern coast of the U.S. [See IJ web site - http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/05/25/110138.htm]. TSR's report anticipates "Atlantic basin and U.S. land falling hurricane activity being 55 percent above the long-term (1950-2009) norm."

lol

Someone forgot to tell them lol

Quoting Floodman:


Darlin', that oil soaker stuff is actually clay cat litter; won't work in water

Oh see I said i probably didn't know what i was talking about. Thank you Floodman. How r ya? I sure have missed evy1.
Sheri

TheCname // well get new name

Quoting TheCname:
If 90E becomes Agatha will it keep the same name or turn into Alex when it cross over to the Atlantic side?

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/B5.html

If it maintains itself as a named cyclone it will not be renamed.

just wondering if OZ is still on????

Taco :o)

Quoting TheCname:
If 90E becomes Agatha will it keep the same name or turn into Alex when it cross over to the Atlantic side?

The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain the name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e., advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g. Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated RSMC Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.
Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.


National Hurricane Operations Plan, Chapter 3

SHIPS is calling for near hurricane strength
anyone up for a repeat of Alma/Arthur?

Hey, 456, what odds do you give 90L of forming?

FIU2010 hey

alexhurricane1991 heyyyyyyyy

Quoting FIU2010:
G'afternoon, all; long time lurker, here. How's everyone doing?

Greetings.

Hate to be quick to ask...but....are you JFV?

Quoting cg2916:
Hey, 456, what odds do you give 90L of forming?

Quoting FIU2010:
90L in the East Pac looks promising, guys.

It's 90E...."E" for East Pacific. 90L is in the Atlantic.

Greetings.

Hate to be quick to ask...but....are you JFV?


hahahahahahaha!

;)

OK from The NWS out of AMarillo TX keeps saying that the Pandhandle and western Oklahoma will have very server weather the next 2 days. So looks like a prime location for chasing Tornados..... We will see...

Taco :o)

good.and lazy today

Day 7 HPC shows a Caribbean low....

haha ike

Quoting SouthALWX:

I keep reminding people of the ECMWTF years but it seems to have slipped many minds the past little while. GFS is bad about ghost storms ... ECM picks up well on genesis but has been bad about over intensifying in the past. CMC is just tropical crack .. keeps us goin' when everything else is boring and we need a something for the addiction =P

Ghost storms I don't care about, especially 5 days out. In terms of actual storms, last year the GFS and ECMWF models did best up to 48 hours out, with the CMC in spitting range of those two. 5 days out, the CMC performed best.

How the models did in 2009 season

Quoting FIU2010:
Hi Ike, no, I'm not that infamous JFV blogger.

Okay. Welcome.

On the models, I should clarify that is regarding TRACK of the storms.

WTO

Quoting IKE:


Greetings.

Hate to be quick to ask...but....are you JFV?

Oh god I don't even want to think about the possibility of him being back on here for this season.

Quoting extreme236:


Oh god I don't even want to think about the possibility of him being back on here for this season.

He will be...until he gets banned.

EDIT>>>I didn't say I didn't like JFV, but he can't survive admin.