Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Little change to 90L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:33 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010

The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.

Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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1751. stormwatcherCI 12:32 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: We are very close to seeing a rapidly developing system in the EPAC. Yes there are 2 lows and the western one maybe the more dominate one. We need more model data to accurately asses where this will go. If this crosses over Mexico then things could get interesting down the road. Sorry, this just doesn't look right. Assess. LOL Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1752. Stormchaser2007 12:32 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Remember 10am tomorrow, NOAA releases their hurricane outlook. Im expecting a forecast of 14-18 from them. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

1755. Tropicsweatherpr 12:34 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting pottery: There is a tropical wave passing through. we saw it coming, but not this heavily. Ok good. What this shows IMO is that when we see the sat images of weak waves,dont think it stays that way because the wave may get into a more favorable enviroment like interacting with an upper trough or getting into a pocket of less shear and do what you have seen there. Member Since: Aprile 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8226

1757. kmanislander 12:36 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
It is clear from this image that the smaller of the two features is the one that has the better vorticity signature. It is this feature that will be the genesis of the W Caribbean low IF it happens. Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1760. hercj 12:40 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
atlantis over fl Member Since: Settembre 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1762. IKE 12:42 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1763. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:42 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
INV/XX/90E MARK 13.5N/95.6W MOVEMENT NNW Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

1764. Stormchaser2007 12:43 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

1766. WPBHurricane05 12:45 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Heard the sonic boom in WPB, FL. Member Since: Luglio 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929

1767. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:45 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Remember 10am tomorrow, NOAA releases their hurricane outlook. Im expecting a forecast of 14-18 from them. i bet it will be 19 to 21 + for there outlook Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

1769. Stormchaser2007 12:46 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: i bet it will be 19 to 21 + for there outlook I doubt they'll go that high. Remember its NOAA, not Joe Bastardi. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

1770. IKE 12:47 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
I give the GOM until July 1st and a named system will be in there some where. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1771. guygee 12:48 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Two very loud sonic booms must mean the shuttle landed at KSC. Rattled the big window in front of my computer very hard, I'm surprised it didn't break. Scared the * out of me, the dog won't stop barking either. Member Since: Settembre 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2830

1772. stormwatcherCI 12:48 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting CycloneOz: All right. The Gulf is "really" closed this year. Off limits to tropical activity AND pleasure activities by humans. The GOO has become a men's restroom, closed for use until the attendant has had time to clean it. Let's just hope that a big, bad ass 'cane doesn't need to go in there to take a dump while this cleanup is going on! Too bad a nice cane can't pick it up and dump it in BP's headquarters. I was watching it on CNN last night with Anderson Cooper and he was saying the BP big shots wouldn't answer his calls for an interview. Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1774. IKE 12:49 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
What a scenic view of the landing. We can do all that well, but BP can't stop an oil leak. Job well done Atlantis.....retired. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1776. hercj 12:52 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Atlantis home safely for the last time. Member Since: Settembre 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

1777. nrtiwlnvragn 12:52 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Ships Text it has backed off of rapid intensification. Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8938

1778. wunderkidcayman 12:53 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
I think you guys are going a bit wild on rapid intensification of 90-E Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5457

1781. stormwatcherCI 12:54 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
It appears to me that the two areas are getting a little further apart and the southern one seems to be a little closer to the coast. Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1782. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:54 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
epac reminds me of a song you spin me right round baby right round like a record baby right round right round. a little birdy is telling me that a possible T.C.F.A. coming soon to epac basin Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

1783. superweatherman 12:54 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Space shuttle Atlantis returns I am watching it live... I just landed like 5 min ago... Member Since: Luglio 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283

1785. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:55 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
738 WHXX01 KMIA 261235 CHGE77 TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1235 UTC WED MAY 26 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902010) 20100526 1200 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100526 1200 100527 0000 100527 1200 100528 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 14.2N 95.1W 13.7N 96.3W 12.8N 97.3W 11.9N 98.0W BAMD 14.2N 95.1W 14.7N 96.3W 15.1N 97.5W 15.3N 98.6W BAMM 14.2N 95.1W 14.2N 96.5W 14.0N 97.9W 13.4N 99.2W LBAR 14.2N 95.1W 15.1N 96.1W 16.2N 97.2W 17.3N 97.9W SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 45KTS DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 45KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100528 1200 100529 1200 100530 1200 100531 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 11.4N 98.5W 10.8N 97.5W 10.6N 94.7W 11.0N 92.9W BAMD 15.5N 99.6W 15.9N 100.9W 17.4N 100.8W 20.4N 98.8W BAMM 12.9N 100.6W 12.6N 102.4W 12.5N 103.3W 12.6N 103.9W LBAR 18.6N 97.9W 20.6N 94.5W 21.2N 87.0W 25.6N 76.8W SHIP 51KTS 55KTS 55KTS 54KTS DSHP 51KTS 55KTS 55KTS 54KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 95.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 93.6W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 7KT LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 92.3W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40636

1786. superweatherman 12:55 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
sorry.. It just landed 5 min...LOL Member Since: Luglio 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 283

1787. IKE 12:56 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting CycloneOz: I can just see all the NASA shuttle refurbishers standing around outside of the hanger wondering "What do we do now?" I just thought about that. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1788. nrtiwlnvragn 12:56 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
My understanding is Atlantis will be prepared as the rescue shuttle for the next two launches, so not out to pasture quite yet. Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8938

1789. guygee 12:56 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Re: 1774 Well said Ike. A sad day on the Space Coast. I wish NASA had listened to its engineers and went with the Jupiter Direct proposal. Member Since: Settembre 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2830

1791. rmbjoe1954 12:57 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting CycloneOz: All right. The Gulf is "really" closed this year. Off limits to tropical activity AND pleasure activities by humans. The GOO has become a men's restroom, closed for use until the attendant has had time to clean it. Let's just hope that a big, bad ass 'cane doesn't need to go in there to take a dump while this cleanup is going on! Articulately put, my friend. Member Since: Giugno 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 732

1793. rmbjoe1954 12:58 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Are you talking about 90E? Member Since: Giugno 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 732

1794. nrtiwlnvragn 12:58 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Notice the BAM model moving this toward Florida, others may follow suit. BAMD yes, but that is 7 days out, a lot can change. Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8938

1797. IKE 01:00 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Memo to Kiran Chetry of CNN: You are pretty to look at as the sun comes up over Grand Isle,LA. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1799. gator23 01:02 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Jeff9641: Notice the BAM model moving this toward Florida, others may follow suit. The BAMMD measures what would happen if a TC were to form at the deeper layers of the atmoshpere. This should not be used for forecasting yet. Right now your best bet it to follow the GLOBAL models GFS, NAM, Canadian Model, or the European Model. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

1800. kimoskee 01:02 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Met Service of Jamaica Website May 26, 2010 at 5:00 a.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across Jamaica. Comment… The Trough will linger in the vicinity of Jamaica until Thursday. Additionally, an Area of Low Pressure is expected to develop across the western Caribbean by the weekend. TODAY'S FORECAST This Morning… Isolated showers across sections of eastern parishes, Partly cloudy elsewhere. This Afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across sections of northern and southeastern parishes. Tonight… Isolated showers will linger across sections of eastern parishes, Partly cloudy elsewhere. 3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow) Thurs & Fri… Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Sat… Periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. Regionally… The Tropical Waves will continue to migrate across the southern Caribbean. Also, an Area of Low Pressure now north of the Bahamas will gradually weaken as it moves toward northeast. rlb Member Since: Agosto 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

1801. twhcracker 01:03 PM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
OMG go to live feed now, they are doing something! I think a robot is working on something. It comes and goes but something is happening. its so exciting to watch this unfold! Link Member Since: Luglio 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

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