Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TampaSpin YEAH works

Quoting KoritheMan:


All indications are that it will, yes.

The reason i ask is because the models earlier today had it more ENE and now they have backed off farther W and turning farther N.

Quoting scott39:
The reason i ask is because the models earlier today had it more ENE and now they have backed off farther W and turning farther N.

I think that's an unrealistic scenario, because I think the trough that will absorb 90L is strong enough, and extends far enough southward to keep 90E/Agatha out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Now, if the models persist in that prediction...

Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin YEAH works

3

Go to the blog area

90E looks like its getting act together. IMO

Quoting FIU2010:



hmmmmm

What are you thinking?

When is the trough suppose to absorb 90E? How many days?

so NGP AND CMC

Quoting FIU2010:
about a distinctive possibility regarding 90E.

What the possibility your thinking about?

Quoting scott39:
90E looks like its getting act together. IMO

Convection displaced to the west of the vorticity maximum, due to easterly shear induced by a developing anticyclone to the east:

Quoting scott39:
When is the trough suppose to absorb 90E? How many days?

Don't you mean 90L? 90E doesn't get absorbed for the foreseeable future.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Convection displaced to the west of the vorticity maximum, due to easterly shear induced by a developing anticyclone to the east:

Does that mean it is developing more or not?

Quoting FIU2010:
hi tim.

Hello Xcool and i are on my Website just playing with my Instant messenger.

TampaSpins Tropical Update

Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't you mean 90L? 90E doesn't get absorbed for the foreseeable future.

Isnt the same trough that absorbs 90L going to pick up 90E and shoot it back ENE?

Quoting scott39:
Does that mean it is developing more or not?

It means it's still disorganized.

Remember, in order for a disturbance to intensify, it needs to have deep convection over or near its center. The current burst is displaced quite a bit away from the vorticity maximum.

90E appears to be a large, monsoon-like system, and those are notorious for only slow intensification.

Quoting scott39:
Isnt the same trough that absorbs 90L going to pick up 90E and shoot it back ENE?

Yes, but being shot to the ENE isn't tantamount to being absorbed.

Quoting scott39:
Isnt the same trough that absorbs 90L going to pick up 90E and shoot it back ENE?

Yes it is

Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes, but being shot to the ENE isn't tantamount to being absorbed.

True,wrong choice of wording.

mmm

I JUSTING UPDATE MY BLOG GO SEEING ITTT

Quoting KoritheMan:


It means it's still disorganized.

Remember, in order for a disturbance to intensify, it needs to have deep convection over or near its center. The current burst is displaced quite a bit away from the vorticity maximum.

90E appears to be a large, monsoon-like system, and those are notorious for only slow intensification.

It looks like on the current Satt, that there is a small burst of convection at the cordinates of the center.

lmao

Alright its about that time see you in the morning!

new

anytime.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I saw that. It almost looks like a new center is trying to form around 31 N 77 W

That right now is a mid level center from the convection that developed earlier. The other center is still moving nw just to the east of that center. It's gonna be interesting to see it there will be a reform under the mid level center or if they will some how spin to each other.

Looks like 90L is just looping around out there like most of the models predicted. It shouldn't be too long now and it will eject off to the NE. The gulf stream seems to be aiding some fuel on the W side of the center. I would think if the center relocated further W it could just bring more showers to the coast than expected...but it won't be making landfall.

I noticed on that last frame on that loop that weathersp posted it looks like almost a due S or maybe even a SSE movement. Looks like 90L is trying to burnout some 360's :)

One more image before I go out...

Note the 40kt ship report over the Mid-Level Center.

90E could be interesting. I wouldn't be too worried until we actually have a TD with an LLC with GFDL runs.

Wow did the models get 90L wrong they thought it was moving back out to sea

top kill activities have started, get your coffee and croissants and watch the webcam, if this fails she's gushing all summer daddio

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 31N75W 1007 MB WILL MOVE E
TONIGHT AND THU PASSING NEAR BERMUDA FRI. THE LOW WILL DRAG A
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

Alex, Agatha, or Conson is forming this week We just don't know which one.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Good Morning! Ike what are your thoughts on 90E as this looks to be a hard one to forecast but model trends seem want to move this into the Gulf. Also, do you think a new center formed last night?

Looks to be near 95W.

Two thoughts. First 90L looks like it is getting better but it isnt. It is just getting a tighter gradient on the west side and that convection is interaction with a trough. It is done.

90E is very interesting but once again I caution model use. The models are still trying to intialize on 90E so they will be jumpy at first. Also it is transition season so intensity may be off by a bit. Either way This one is going to be a good one to watch.