Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting IKE:


I agree with you about the convection and it being dead.

I like using the RAMSDIS imagery to determine how cold the cloud tops are. Really puts things into perspective since their scale is easier read.

Recent first-hand account of reef and water conditions in the Dry Tortugas ER:
Link

After a fairly uneventful season in 2009, the atmospheric indicators for the 2010 hurricane season support a return to our recent hyper active season. The main influences this season will be very warm sea surface temperatures (SST’s), forecasted below normal sea level pressures, and the demise of El Nino in the central Pacific.


1)Atlantic SST’s are at record high levels in the region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. For the months of March, April, and May SST”s in this region are the warmest on record and are running anywhere between 2-3 degrees above normal. Warm water is the fuel that feed tropical cyclone birth and intensity and such values of upper oceanic heat content in the deep tropics is concerning. Similar warm values (although not as warm) were noted in the record breaking 2005 season in the same general area.


2)Forecast modeling of sea level pressures (SLP) in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and even the Gulf of Mexico suggest below to well below normal SLP in these regions during the heart of the 2010 hurricane season. This includes SLP averaging between 50-100% below normal over the Caribbean Sea in the months of July, August, and September. Lower than average SLP allow favorable surface breeding grounds for tropical cyclones and helps to enhance stronger storms with lower than average background pressures. Similar tendencies were noted during the 2005 season leading to the strongest hurricane in Atlantic basin history (Wilma) and 2 category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico (Rita and Katrina).


3)The rapid demise of El Nino in the central Pacific this spring no longer offers the Atlantic basin its protective veil of upper level wind shear…highly common in the 2009 season. With El Nino conditions quickly moving toward neutral and forecasting models showing neutral to weak La Nina conditions developing during the heart of the 2010 hurricane season, favorable to very favorable upper air conditions will likely be in place across the entire Atlantic basin especially once into the month of July. Instead of stronger than average wind shear as noted last season, this season may offer average to even below average wind shear, allowing better storm organization, long tracked hurricanes, and potentially stronger hurricanes.


With the above factors coming in to play this season, and with the Atlantic basin remaining in the hyper active phase it entered into starting 1995, the chances of an active to very active 2010 hurricane season are good. Well above average named storms is likely with several becoming hurricanes and an above average chance of more than 3 major hurricanes. No portion of the US coast appears more at risk than any other based on current atmospheric parameters, but certain portions of the US coast are generally more at risk due to their location…such as Florida.


Storm analog years (years with similar atmospheric patterns are : 1964, 1995, 1998, 2005. These years resulted in 4 tropical storm landfalls in the state of TX and the near miss by Hurricane Rita in 2005.


It is strongly urged that residents review their hurricane preparation plans, evacuation plans, and fully stock their hurricane kits. The time to prepare is NOW!

90L is detatching from the moisture supply, blowing off convection, not deep but it is only going for Subtropical. It's not dead nor de-activated yet. Has till Thursday. Some of you are not seeing the big picture on this. It looks better then yesterday, I don't see 3 circulations, I see one broad (subtropical like) circulation with convection firing off to the northwest of it. There is a chance, low, but still a chance this thing could pull it off.

90L is also supposed to enter wrmer waters later, that should blow some more convection. HOWEVER, dry air continues to hamper any convection forming southeast of the low. It is something to watch for now.

Quoting reedzone:


ALOT of people on here wrote it off last night. 90L has become better organized, shows one nice spin instead of many spins, some decent convection blowing near the center, but as Subtropical systems, convection doesn't have to be right next to the center. We'll see what happens later on today into tomorrow. As Weather456 says, "90L is doing what it is forecast to do". It should be touching the warm Gulf Stream later and may gain more warm core characteristics, but I doubt it will be named because once the NHC says it won't form, they like to do anything in their power to stick with that last forecast so they won't look bad.

Geez, Reed, lol!
I was looking for speed and course!
j/k!

Quoting StormW:
INVESTIGATIVE AREA 90L/TROPICAL SYNOPSIS UPDATE ISSUED 8:30 A.M.MAY 25, 2010

If you are a featured blogger, why do you have to plug your blog 5 and 6 times a day?

Quoting weather42009:


If you are a featured blogger, why do you have to plug your blog 5 and 6 times a day?

Since he is a featured blogger, why wouldn't he plug his blog 5 to 6 times a day?

Quoting beell:


Geez, Reed, lol!
I was looking for speed and course!
j/k!

Hehe, sorry.. Just giving you an update on it.

Dr. Jeff Masters excerpt from the Spud show on WWL.com Radio NOLA yesterday.

Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS through 60 hours.

Good morning. The run is now out thru 90 hrs and still calling for the traverse from the EPAC into the NW Caribbean as a closed low.

wow looks like fl could get hit early

Sometimes humility is a man's best friend.

12z GFS

Looks like we'll see the EPAC disturbance shift into the Caribbean by this Friday with development by Saturday.

Increase chance of cyclogenesis offshore SE USA and EPAC - May 25-31

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z GFS

Looks like we'll see the EPAC disturbance shift into the Caribbean by this Friday.

It's hard to tell whether the actual low makes the crossover or whether a piece of energy from it fires up the NW Caribbean low. The run shows a remaining 1007 mb low in the EPAC at the same time.

Quoting kmanislander:


It's hard to tell whether the actual low makes the crossover or whether a piece of energy from it fires up the NW Caribbean low. The run shows a remaining 1007 mb low in the EPAC at the same time.

Looks like a piece of the positive vorticity makes its way into the northwestern Caribbean.

There is a moderate chance of tropical cyclogenesis in the NW Caribbean - June 1-7

Met Service of Jamaica website

May 25, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough moves west of Jamaica.

Comment…
Trough is beginning to affect weather especially at the upper levels
as it moves further west.

TODAY'S FORECAST
This Morning… Mostly cloudy across eastern and central areas, a few showers likely across northeastern areas.
This Afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central and western parishes as well as inland areas of eastern parishes.
Tonight… Showers linger over eastern parishes. Partly cloudy otherwise.

3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Wed… Periods of showers and thunderstorms across the island for much of the day.
Thu/Fri… Scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the island in the afternoon.

Regionally… The Tropical Waves continue to migrate across the southern Caribbean. The are of Low Pressure weakens as it continues to move toward the northeast.

rar

NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Quoting weather42009:


If you are a featured blogger, why do you have to plug your blog 5 and 6 times a day?

sounds like your a little jealous friend you should fit right in here with the rest that act like that

Quoting Drakoen:


Looks like a piece of the positive vorticity makes its way into the northwestern Caribbean.

It does look that way based upon the run. Given the very proximate timeline this does bear watching.

Quoting kmanislander:


It does look that way based upon the run.

I like looking at this for vorticity strength and advection:

Link

RGB

Quoting Weather456:


you mean 2.5 right?

My bad..lol. 0.25inch

A lot of moisture just south of Haiti/DR...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251558
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW IS DRIFTING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND GALE FORCE WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC...AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
ON THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

Quoting Drakoen:


I like looking at this for vorticity strength and advection:

Link

Very nice !. Will add to my collection, thanks. :-)

Looks like the GFS 12z likes the idea of a tropical storm traversing the northern Caribbean and into the Bahamas before getting shredded.

Looks to me like a trough in the west and NW Caribbean Sea...crossing Cuba....based on the 12Z GFS. With areas of low pressure riding along it.

Maybe something spins up tropically. Would I bet my paycheck on it happening? No. Could it happen? It's possible.

A novelists opinion only.

Quoting weather42009:


If you are a featured blogger, why do you have to plug your blog 5 and 6 times a day?

OI!!! StormW has more meteorological experience under his pinkie nail than you have had hot dinners. Stop being jealous. StormW emails his forecasts to 100's or maybe 100's of people that want his forecasts. Don't come in here and put down the most experienced forecaster on this blog, you'll be put on ignore by everyone then you can say... ok. behave yourself or leave.

Quoting CycloneOz:


90L...almost a totally naked swirl. Someone should tell it to put a shirt on! :)

It took us long enough to get you to put a shirt on in your profile pic...Can't imagine how long it would take to convince 90L to do it. :)

MJO is in our favor:

The flooding potential for Central America is high.

Quoting StormJunkie:


It took us long enough to get you to put a shirt on in your profile pic...Can't imagine how long it would take to convince 90L to do it. :)

It is widely known that Invests tend not to buckle to peer pressure, so it could take days if not weeks

90L Dvorak

ECMWFEPS forecasting for an EPAC cyclone but doesn't show the cross over:

90L 2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

1602 UTC

Quoting btwntx08:
90L yesterday thought it was history but at it today different story eventhough the blowup is still away from the center still its telling us ITS NOT DEAD YET!!! someone in here needs to learn this >>>#95

???


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.

NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI




NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Storm has a lot of smartness and class and I like it when he tells us he has something new on his blog cause I go look at it right then. it just goes to show, if you get up and give a speach to thirty people, 10 will love you, ten will hate you, and ten wont care one way or the other...

is 90 L going toward the east or south and east.