Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Little change to 90L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:33 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010

The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.

Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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1302. all4hurricanes 01:44 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
I hate blob season nobody knows what it's doing next and everyone argues over something as random as the roll of a die. Dolly in 08 must have been declared dead 100 times a day. I don't think 90L is dead but I don't see it becoming Alex Member Since: Marzo 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2192

1303. Patrap 01:44 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111587

1304. cajunkid 01:44 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
not advocating anything like that...its just crazy what you see Member Since: Luglio 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

1305. Tazmanian 01:45 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: Nooooo, what if 90L doesnt feel like dying yet? :\| its Dead trust me Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

1306. stormwatcherCI 01:46 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting HaboobsRsweet: I dont like that one outlier just east of the Yuc into the Gulf haha. I don't like the rest of them either. Time will tell. Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1309. Patrap 01:47 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Well I dont understand,,folks yakk and yakk on a Invest and here it comes,or the only Poof-age associated with it ,..moves towards the coast tonight between Charleston and Savannah. I mean,,isnt this what some want? They all cant be a Cat-7 plus. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111587

1311. winter123 01:48 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: its deader than micheal jackson too soon... Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

1313. Hurricanes101 01:49 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Wabbit season Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1314. HaboobsRsweet 01:49 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Alright you heard it here...90E or soon to be 91 L??? is going to be the first named storm this year. I am 100% sure. Just not sure if it is EPAC or Carib before it gets named haha. Member Since: Maggio 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

1315. MiamiHurricanes09 01:49 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: i dont have photoshop on this laptop if i did i would make one for bp but heres one for bp img src="" alt="" /> You just went into a lot of people's ignore list. Stop with the images or a ban is imminent. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1318. MiamiHurricanes09 01:51 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: canes i removed it allready I see that. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1319. Stormchaser2007 01:52 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Watching this conversation has lowered my IQ quite a bit.... Be back later. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

1320. Tazmanian 01:52 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: 1.) Deader is not a word 2.) You spelled Michael wrong 3.) Its not "dead". It may be dying, but not dead. 90L is Deader and has Dead Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

1321. wunderkidcayman 01:52 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
hey guys I think the models will change over time and all or most will turn it into the caribbean, how strong that is another story Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5450

1322. winter123 01:53 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: 101 its blob season cause whenever a blob pops up the blog goes into the crapper The blob is blobbing!!! 100% sure of it! (They need to move the floater west...) Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

1323. MiamiHurricanes09 01:54 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: 90L is Deader and has Dead 90L is dead, it's obvious. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1327. pottery 01:56 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: Guys, 90L looks the best it ever has. Dont be so quick to give up on it! Some of us gave up on it a week ago... Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1328. MiamiHurricanes09 01:56 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: Guys, 90L looks the best it ever has. Dont be so quick to give up on it! Are you so sure about that? Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1329. Tazmanian 01:57 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: Guys, 90L looks the best it ever has. Dont be so quick to give up on it! give it a rest on 90L 90L lost wind shear kill it its dry air and wind shear that kill it Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

1330. MiamiHurricanes09 01:57 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting pottery: Some of us gave up on it a week ago... I gave up on it about 87 minutes ago. Lol. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1331. Ossqss 01:57 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Question, have you all been experiencing less access to resources that were available in the past from various weather related sites and or models? Just curious. Example being the European models etc. TIA Member Since: Giugno 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

1333. kimoskee 01:58 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Raining in St. Andrew, Jamaica. Hopefully it will cool down the tension in country. What is going on is terrible, but confined to certain areas. Pray for us and send more rain. Member Since: Agosto 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

1334. MiamiHurricanes09 01:59 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: lol and hes a semi wish casting and he gave up on it so its dead I don't know if I'm a semi-wishcaster but 90L is RIP. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1335. winter123 01:59 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: what blob all i see is dry air i suggest geting some sleep It's mostly off the floater. (Wow this blog really has gone downhill past few hours, it's not cause of the people having hope for "blobs" either. I'm out for the night.) Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

1336. BahaHurican 02:00 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Evening all. Some interesting comments on 90E, but I'm still reserving judgement on its potential as 91L, much less as ATL's A-named storm..... I'm still thinking we'll be a few days into June before we actually see something nameworthy in the ATL. Am I way off in thinking the EPac is likely to get quieter as the season progresses, especially if we do actually dip into la nina before October? Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17670

1337. atmoaggie 02:00 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Are you so sure about that? YAWN. Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

1338. kimoskee 02:00 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Met Service of Jamaica website May 25, 2010 at 4:00 p.m. LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…Trough now across Jamaica. Comment… Comment… The Trough should linger in the Jamaica area until Thursday but an Area of Low Pressure is expected to develop across the western Caribbean by the weekend. 24-HOURS FORECAST Tonight… Partly cloudy but lingering showers across northeastern parishes. Tomorrow… Partly cloudy morning with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly across northern and southeastern parishes. 3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow) Thurs & Fri… Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Sat… Periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. Regionally… Tropical Waves continue to migrate across the southern Caribbean. Also, an Area of Low Pressure is now north of the Bahamas but will gradually weaken as it moves northeastward. kjb Member Since: Agosto 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670

1341. MiamiHurricanes09 02:01 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: well ur not a full blown one like this freaken guy No argument, but how am I wishcasting? Just curios. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1342. Tazmanian 02:01 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
na na na da a o good bye 90L na na na da a oh good bye Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

1343. MiamiHurricanes09 02:02 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: YAWN. stretch, stretch. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1345. Drakoen 02:03 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Watching this conversation has lowered my IQ quite a bit.... Be back later. lol Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1347. KoritheMan 02:03 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Patrap: Well I dont understand,,folks yakk and yakk on a Invest and here it comes,or the only Poof-age associated with it ,..moves towards the coast tonight between Charleston and Savannah. I mean,,isnt this what some want? They all cant be a Cat-7 plus. I don't think many here are concerned with the intensity; rather, if something doesn't get named, it's the typical mentality of the blog to largely not notice it. But I sympathize with your point, Pat. Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 15445

1349. pottery 02:03 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting kimoskee: Raining in St. Andrew, Jamaica. Hopefully it will cool down the tension in country. What is going on is terrible, but confined to certain areas. Pray for us and send more rain. Thinking of you here, Man. Hope the thing gets sorted out soon. If Dudus was a Man, he would call off the crap... Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

1350. MiamiHurricanes09 02:04 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Acemmett90: yesterday you were really pushing it then today u realized it was a gonner Ah whatever, too tired to care, lol. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1351. Ossqss 02:04 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: na na na da a o good bye 90L na na na da a oh good bye You forgot the Hey Hey part :) Member Since: Giugno 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

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