Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Little change to 90L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:33 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010

The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.

Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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1202. atmoaggie 01:01 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: I put myself on ignore back in 2006. Most awkward personal message I ever sent to the admin. Dat's funny... Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

1203. MiamiHurricanes09 01:02 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting pottery: I have not laffed this hard in a while... You guys are Freaks for true! LOL. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1204. Stormchaser2007 01:03 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting extreme236: I'd say 90L is looking the most tropical it has looked its entire existence. Good to see a post pertaining to the tropics. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

1205. Patrap 01:03 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
90L's overall circulation is large for sure. Were Lucky this isnt Late August Early Sept for sure. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1206. Drakoen 01:03 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: Now Drakoen shut down your browser and then reopen it. ;) lol I could just click on Ignore User to pull back up the ignore list and take myself off. Member Since: Ottobre 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

1207. Cavin Rawlins 01:04 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Wow what has this blog come to We have people ignoring themselves and its only May!! I had to see this one more time, lol lol..how do one ignore themselves, are we that bored. lol Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1209. pottery 01:04 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting AussieStorm: well. there was a time about 2 years ago. 1 year after a severe back injury, I was mentally in a bad way, thought about it a lot. The only reason i didn't, my kids. Close Call. Take care, Aussie. Sounds dread! Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20707

1211. nrtiwlnvragn 01:04 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
EP 90 2010052600 BEST 0 112N 891W 20 1007 DB Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8918

1212. MiamiHurricanes09 01:05 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Drakoen: lol I could just click on Ignore User to pull back up the ignore list and take myself off. That's what I did. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1213. extreme236 01:05 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Good to see a post pertaining to the tropics. Haha. Well I kinda came in a bit late to join into the ignore discussion so I thought I'd start a new topic. lol Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1214. Hurricanes101 01:06 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting extreme236: Haha. Well I kinda came in a bit late to join into the ignore discussion so I thought I'd start a new topic. lol 90L looks the most tropical and yet NHC says its chances are diminishing Something doesnt seem right Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1215. winter123 01:07 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Levi32: Ah but places like Britain are used to such life-threatening extratropical cyclones in the winter time. So is the United States. But in the summertime, such storms no longer exist, and people do not expect threats except from the tropics. A subtropical cyclone designated as a gale or storm-force low on the marine map is not going to get people's attention. I mean take a look at systems like the unnamed storm in 2008 off the Carolinas. This thing was 991mb with an eye, and caused numerous power outages and coastal flooding. The recon measured a 7C warmer temp inside the eye than outside the eye, and look at the radar structure once over land. This kind of a thing can't go unnoticed. Such a thing is unexpected by people during the summer. I feel that for systems this far along in transition, especially those affecting our coastline, the NHC should issue statements about the dangers the system poses, as well as the potential for fully tropical transition, which this system actually probably accomplished but wasn't named. This seriously wasn't named in 2008?? NHC is worthless. Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

1216. nrtiwlnvragn 01:07 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Ships still indictes possible rapid intensification with 90E. Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8918

1217. AussieStorm 01:08 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting pottery: Close Call. Take care, Aussie. Sounds dread! I'm going to grab my hot pack from the microwave, strap it to my neck and lay in bed. back in a few hours. Top Priority for Immediate Broadcast NSW SEVERE WEATHER WARNING Flash Flooding For people in Illawarra, Sydney Metropolitan and eastern Hunter districts. Issued at 11:00 am on Wednesday 26 May 2010 Synoptic Situation: 9:00 am EST Wednesday A low pressure system off Sydney coast is bringing local heavy rain to Illawarra and Sydney Metropolitan. As the low moves north-northeast heavy rain is expected to extend to eastern parts of Hunter districts and ease in Illawarra and Sydney Metropolitan. Rain, heavy at times may cause local flash flooding. Severe Weather Warning for South Coast and eastern parts of Southern Tablelands has been cancelled. Emergency services advise do not enter flood water. Stay well clear of creeks, storm drains and causeways. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13287

1218. SevereHurricane 01:08 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Ships still indictes possible rapid intensification with 90E. Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) Not surprising considering how favorable conditions are. Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

1219. AussieStorm 01:09 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: 90L looks the most tropical and yet NHC says its chances are diminishing Something doesn't seem right Maybe they just don't want to name it, Being more stricter in naming systems. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13287

1220. MiamiHurricanes09 01:09 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
What's everyone's opinion on 90E? Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1221. winter123 01:09 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
90L's last gasp? convection stopped firing, too much shear. Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

1222. Patrap 01:10 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
BP TO SHOW PLUG ATTEMPT Company Bows To Pressure, Agrees To Broadcast Video Of 'Top Kill' Attempt Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

1223. Stormchaser2007 01:10 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

1225. pottery 01:10 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting AussieStorm: I'm going to grab my hot pack from the microwave, strap it to my neck and lay in bed. back in a few hours. Top Priority for Immediate Broadcast NSW SEVERE WEATHER WARNING Flash Flooding For people in Illawarra, Sydney Metropolitan and eastern Hunter districts. Issued at 11:00 am on Wednesday 26 May 2010 Synoptic Situation: 9:00 am EST Wednesday A low pressure system off Sydney coast is bringing local heavy rain to Illawarra and Sydney Metropolitan. As the low moves north-northeast heavy rain is expected to extend to eastern parts of Hunter districts and ease in Illawarra and Sydney Metropolitan. Rain, heavy at times may cause local flash flooding. Severe Weather Warning for South Coast and eastern parts of Southern Tablelands has been cancelled. Emergency services advise do not enter flood water. Stay well clear of creeks, storm drains and causeways. Seriously. I would ice it instead of heat. Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20707

1226. MiamiHurricanes09 01:10 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting winter123: 90L's last gasp? convection stopped firing, too much shear. I think so too. Get ready for the 12,000 RIP's coming. lol. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1228. MiamiHurricanes09 01:12 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: Well on a creepy yet ultimately unimportant note, the center of the low moved north only 0.2 degrees between 18Z and 00Z, while moving west 0.9 degrees. Gentlemen and sirs, is that ominous or unimportant? No, that just means it was moving WNW, lol. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1231. nrtiwlnvragn 01:14 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Latest Windsat on 90L Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8918

1232. Hurricanes101 01:14 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: But sirs! It's moving west. IT'S MOVING WEST!!!!! Westcaster!! Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1233. MiamiHurricanes09 01:14 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Did the Gulf stream separate lol? Take a look at this graph: Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1234. pottery 01:14 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting FIU2010: 456, what do the low pressures over SF during the months of july, aug, and sept could mean for us? im referring to the anomolies, of course. That clearly means that you are going to go into Depression. Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20707

1235. Buhdog 01:14 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
the link did not work try this if anyone can there is something down there right now..from live feed.. http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/viewsingleimage.html?mode=singleimage&orig_handle=Buhdog&orig_n umber=&handle=Buhdog&number=14&album_id=8#slideanchor Member Since: Luglio 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 950

1236. KoritheMan 01:14 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: What's everyone's opinion on 90E? It becomes Agatha. Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418

1237. WaterWitch11 01:14 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
i think that on friday, obama will truly intervene concerning the spill. Member Since: Agosto 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1266

1238. MiamiHurricanes09 01:15 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting pottery: That clearly means that you are going to go into Depression. LMAO! Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1239. HaboobsRsweet 01:16 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
I think 90E is our first real shot for a named storm. Conditions will be prime. Is 90L finally RIP? I saw some blogging this morning briefly when some still felt it had a shot? Member Since: Maggio 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

1240. KoritheMan 01:16 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting FIU2010: a question for either 456 or levi, or for both of them. alright, gentlemen, what do those low pressure anomalies that I see over the southeast and the carib. during the months of july, aug. and sept mean for us? Above all, why do i see the lowest pressure readings over the state of florida, what does that mean for floridians during this year's hurricane season, above all, for the peak months? Thanks, guys. Basically, the low MSLP anomalies (if you're referring to the map I think you're referring to) means that conditions will be very favorable for tropical cyclogenesis, as well as intensification in those areas. This is because lower surrounding pressure is more conducive to the development and intensification of tropical cyclones. Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418

1241. MiamiHurricanes09 01:17 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting HaboobsRsweet: I think 90E is our first real shot for a named storm. Conditions will be prime. Is 90L finally RIP? I saw some blogging this morning briefly when some still felt it had a shot? Yeah I think it's RIP. Good call on this one HaboobsRsweet. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1242. xcool 01:18 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
WHXX01 KMIA 260057 CHGE77 TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0057 UTC WED MAY 26 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902010) 20100526 0000 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100526 0000 100526 1200 100527 0000 100527 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 11.2N 89.1W 12.0N 89.5W 13.2N 90.4W 13.9N 91.3W BAMD 11.2N 89.1W 11.3N 90.0W 11.9N 91.1W 12.7N 92.4W BAMM 11.2N 89.1W 11.6N 90.0W 12.2N 91.0W 12.8N 92.3W LBAR 11.2N 89.1W 11.6N 89.6W 12.8N 90.3W 13.9N 91.0W SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 45KTS DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 45KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100528 0000 100529 0000 100530 0000 100531 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 14.4N 92.3W 15.2N 93.2W 15.9N 91.1W 17.8N 88.4W BAMD 13.5N 93.7W 14.5N 95.6W 15.0N 96.4W 16.1N 96.8W BAMM 13.4N 93.4W 14.4N 94.6W 15.7N 93.4W 17.2N 92.5W LBAR 15.0N 91.1W 17.2N 88.4W 18.6N 81.5W 24.6N 70.3W SHIP 55KTS 69KTS 59KTS 52KTS DSHP 55KTS 69KTS 52KTS 30KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 89.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 3KT LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 88.6W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 3KT LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 88.0W WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

1243. Tazmanian 01:18 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
buy 90L now we turn too 90E Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

1244. Stormchaser2007 01:19 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Looks like 90L is going to pop some convection near the center tonight. Really moistened the low up. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

1246. HaboobsRsweet 01:19 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
On a side note we got rocked on the coast today. I wish I had my camera. The clouds were awesome. Looked like tidal waves. 2 inch hail reported by the border also. Turbulence had to be real high. About time the sea breeze fired up. two massive outflows converged together over LA also. Member Since: Maggio 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

1247. Tazmanian 01:20 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy: But sirs! It's moving west. IT'S MOVING WEST!!!!! are you JFV??? THIS KINDING Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111323

1248. pottery 01:20 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
If 90E gets into the west atl, does it become 91L? Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20707

1249. MiamiHurricanes09 01:21 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Looks like 90L is going to pop some convection near the center tonight. Really moistened the low up. Are you lying? lol, I don't think 90L is going to do anything, looks pretty eh to me. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1250. Stormchaser2007 01:21 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Never mind. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

1251. MiamiHurricanes09 01:21 AM GMT del 26 Maggio 2010
Quoting pottery: If 90E gets into the west atl, does it become 91L? Yup. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

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