Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Little change to 90L

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 01:33 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010

The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.

Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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801. IKE 10:25 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
18Z GFS doesn't do much with 90E once it gets in the Caribbean. Thought it would show more...thru 132 hours. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

802. Patrap 10:25 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

803. MiamiHurricanes09 10:25 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting cg2916: Ah, Inaccuweather, you can always count on them to hype things up. Really? They have a lot of info to back them up on that prediction. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

804. xcool 10:25 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Hurricanes101 .WAIT FOR 00z GFS... Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

805. extreme236 10:26 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
I guess it's important to keep in mind that it is still May... Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

806. Stormchaser2007 10:26 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: GFS does nothing in the NW Caribbean Oh really? Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15242

807. Levi32 10:26 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting reedzone: I think it looks more like a Subtropical Depression.. More convection needs to build up, it hasn't even reached the Gulf Stream yet, some models don't touch it, some models drive it in there.. Storms aren't put into categories based on convection. The maximum winds are tropical storm-force, and thus if classified it would be a subtropical storm. Member Since: novembre 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439

808. IKE 10:26 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: GFS does nothing in the NW Caribbean Agree. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

809. kuppenskup 10:27 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Where did you go to get this? Member Since: Agosto 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 404

810. Hurricanes101 10:27 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Oh really? yea that low goes away in the next few frames Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

811. Patrap 10:27 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
BP Live video link from the ROV monitoring the damaged riser Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

812. MiamiHurricanes09 10:27 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting reedzone: I think it looks more like a Subtropical Depression.. More convection needs to build up, it hasn't even reached the Gulf Stream yet, some models don't touch it, some models drive it in there.. Winds are at 45 MPH soooo I really don't know what they would label it, but I totally agree with you. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

813. IKE 10:27 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
It does show an increase in moisture...quite a bit. But as far as tropical storm/hurricane...no. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

816. kuppenskup 10:29 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting xcool: where did you go to get this? Member Since: Agosto 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 404

817. reedzone 10:29 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting Levi32: Storms aren't put into categories based on convection. The maximum winds are tropical storm-force, and thus if classified it would be a subtropical storm. Ohh ok.. interesting.. Right now I'm calling it a Hybrid Low. You can see why this has not been de-activated, so I think the NHC is watching it. A special statement was not supposed to be issued this afternoon. Member Since: Luglio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

818. xcool 10:29 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
JUSTING WAIT FOR 00z GFS Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

819. MiamiHurricanes09 10:29 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting Levi32: Storms aren't put into categories based on convection. The maximum winds are tropical storm-force, and thus if classified it would be a subtropical storm. You would think so, but you never know, the NHC might just say TD because it doesn't look pretty. Much respect to the NHC but they tend to do odd things. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

820. wunderkidcayman 10:30 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
wait for the 00Z GFS then you will see what it is really going to do in the Carribean Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5374

821. reedzone 10:30 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Looking better as the hours pass by.. Member Since: Luglio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

822. Stormchaser2007 10:31 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: yea that low goes away in the next few frames Actually it stays there for the whole run...so far. I dont buy the 18z GFS because it develops the disturbance thats in the Caribbean right now and it looks like it messes with the low coming from 90E. Doesnt really matter. Its still 4-5 days out. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15242

823. MrstormX 10:31 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: You would think so, but you never know, the NHC might just say TD because it doesn't look pretty. Much respect to the NHC but they tend to do odd things. Well I wouldn't call it odd, but rather conservative. Last year 90L and 92L are good examples of that. Member Since: Maggio 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4221

824. xcool 10:31 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
kuppenskup ?? Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

825. xcool 10:31 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Stormchaser2007 thanks you . Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

827. Stormchaser2007 10:32 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting reedzone: Looking better as the hours pass by.. Better? lol Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15242

828. kuppenskup 10:32 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting xcool: kuppenskup ?? The models you showed on the system in the Pacific. Where did you go to get that? Member Since: Agosto 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 404

829. extreme236 10:32 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Actually it stays there for the whole run...so far. I dont buy the 18z GFS because it develops the disturbance thats in the Caribbean right now and it looks like it messes with the low coming from 90E. Doesnt really matter. Its still 4-5 days out. Also, I didn't think the 06Z or 18Z GFS runs were as reliable as the 00Z and 12Z ones anyway? Member Since: Agosto 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

830. soclueless 10:33 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vV7Sl9GGHU about2:30 am monday don't know how to link yet, hope this works Member Since: Marzo 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 46

831. atmoaggie 10:33 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Yeah I would agree. It looks too "poor" to be named, especially how conservative the NHC is, if this were 1970 I'm sure this would already be named. Huh? It has been shown that NHC is naming more and more storms as the last 20 years have passed. Landsea did a little work to document it, even going so far as to give conditions to former directors and have them decide if certain storms would have been named during their tenures. A definite trend to name more of the marginal and non-threatening storms than 20 years ago and beyond... And part of the issue with tropical storm trends has to do with the short-duration storms. Before all of our data sources and algorithms, and the high resolution data, some of the shorter duration storms were not classified (even in the 70s), though they could be today. ftp://ftp.gfdl.noaa.gov/pub/gav/PAPERS/LVBK_08_SHORTSTORMS.submitted.pdf Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

832. Hurricanes101 10:33 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Im looking at the GFS loop, the low disappears at 144 hours Member Since: Marzo 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

833. Stormchaser2007 10:33 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: I do not believe this at all. Interesting to see though. Thats from November 2009 lol Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15242

834. IKE 10:33 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: I do not believe this at all. Interesting to see though. From November 2009. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

835. Stormchaser2007 10:34 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting extreme236: Also, I didn't think the 06Z or 18Z GFS runs were as reliable as the 00Z and 12Z ones anyway? Last I heard they're all equal now. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15242

836. atmoaggie 10:35 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting extreme236: I guess it's important to keep in mind that it is still May... Hey, ex! Yeah, it would be nice if we could all keep that in mind... ;-) Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

838. IKE 10:36 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Don't see much in the Atlantic on the latest GFS through June 2nd. Season is a bust? Could you imagine this blog if it was? I believe it will be active. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

839. MiamiHurricanes09 10:36 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: Huh? It has been shown that NHC is naming more and more storms as the last 20 years have passed. Landsea did a little work to document it, even going so far as to give conditions to former directors and have them decide if certain storms would have been named during their tenures. A definite trend to name more of the marginal and non-threatening storms than 20 years ago and beyond... And part of the issue with tropical storm trends has to do with the short-duration storms. Before all of our data sources and algorithms, and the high resolution data, some of the shorter duration storms were not classified (even in the 70s), though they could be today. ftp://ftp.gfdl.noaa.gov/pub/gav/PAPERS/LVBK_08_SHORTSTORMS.submitted.pdf I see what you mean. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

840. atmoaggie 10:36 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Last I heard they're all equal now. NO upper air soundings in the 6 and 18 Z (except for the very rare oddball weather balloon launch for severe weather)... So the GFS 6 and 18 Z runs get ACARS (commercial flight met ob data) in major routes, but little else but surface data. Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

841. xcool 10:36 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
kuppenskup oh. Link Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

842. Stormchaser2007 10:37 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: I feel so stupid now. Why do they still have that up?!?!?!?! Pretty sure the MM5 FSU was changed or discontinued. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15242

843. pottery 10:37 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting IKE: Don't see much in the Atlantic on the latest GFS through June 2nd. Season is a bust? Could you imagine this blog if it was? I believe it will be active. A 2009 Rerun?? Oh NO!!! Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20690

844. futuremet 10:37 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: I do not believe this at all. Interesting to see though. This is old. It is from November of 2009. Member Since: Luglio 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

845. plywoodstatenative 10:38 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Street flooding, heavy lightning and tree damage in the area of Oakland Park and Downtown Fort Lauderdale after some serious storms earlier. Member Since: novembre 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

847. Stormchaser2007 10:38 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: NO upper air soundings in the 6 and 18 Z (except for the very rare oddball weather balloon launch for severe weather)... So the GFS 6 and 18 Z runs get ACARS (commercial flight met ob data) in major routes, but little else but surface data. Pretty sure the 6z and 18z use satellite data instead of the UAS. Not sure if that compensates for the lose of the soundings. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15242

848. IKE 10:39 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting pottery: A 2009 Rerun?? Oh NO!!! It was awful...delightfully boring, but awful. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

849. plywoodstatenative 10:39 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting reedzone: Looking better as the hours pass by.. Looking better to a point, there is the flat side to it along the eastern edge. Evidence of either shear or dry air infusion into it. Member Since: novembre 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

850. atmoaggie 10:40 PM GMT del 25 Maggio 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13: I feel so stupid now. Why do they still have that up?!?!?!?! They reminiscing about trying to forecast Ida. (Is a run from Ida, in fact) Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

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