Little change to 90L; flow of oil southwards towards Loop Current shuts off
An extratropical low pressure system a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas (90L), has changed little over the past day. (For those of you who were wondering, a discussion of what an "Invest" is can be found in the Tropical Cyclone FAQ). This low has the potential to develop into the season's first depression or subtropical storm, and could be a threat to the Southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday or Wednesday. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will be in the high 30 - 40 knot range through Tuesday, though. The high shear combined with the large amount of dry air to 90L's west seen on water vapor satellite loops will greatly hamper transition of this system to a subtropical storm. This system is expected to move slowly north and then northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next three days, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday night. Most of the models indicate that Wednesday will be when 90L gets closest to the coast, with a position just off the North or South Carolina coast. All of the major models currently indicate that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly northeastward out to sea late next week as a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south by Wednesday. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to offshore winds over the oil spill region Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil southwards towards the Loop Current. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more detailed discussions of the potential development of 90L.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this afternoon.
Heavy rainfall threat for Haiti diminishes
Moisture is expected to increase across most of the Caribbean next week, leading to seasonally heavy rains across much of the region. A concentrated tropical disturbance capable of bringing dangerous flooding rains to Haiti is no longer being indicated, but the normal heavy rains that we can expect this time of year will likely begin affecting the island over the next several weeks.
Flow of oil southward towards the Loop Current shuts off
Light southeast to east winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, resulting in potential oiling of Louisiana shorelines from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These winds shut off the flow of oil southwards towards the Loop Current, as seen in the latest SAR satellite imagery (Figure 2). However, winds will shift to offshore out of the north or northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, due to counter-clockwise flow of air around the approaching 90L storm. This wind direction change should give some relief to the hard-hit Louisiana coast. If 90L becomes strong and lingers off the Southeast U.S. coast for several days, a significant amount of oil could get pumped into the Loop Current late next week.
Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 8:53am EDT May 22, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. The plume of oil being drawn south towards the Loop Current has been cut off. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.
Oil threat to the Keys uncertain
Satellite imagery from today's pass of NASA's Terra satellite and the European Envisat satellite were inconclusive as to the presence of oil in the Loop Current. It is likely that the oil has dispersed significantly over the 500-mile course it has taken from the site of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. I expect some oil is close to completing the full loop of the Loop Current and is now headed east towards the Keys, as depicted in the "Uncertainty" area in the latest NOAA 72-hour offshore trajectory forecast. If this estimate is correct, the Keys could see oil as early as Wednesday. However, this is not a sure thing. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. This event could occur today or tomorrow, in which case the ribbon of southwestward-moving oil would turn due west and then north, eventually winding up back near the site of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy, and they note in today's discussion that there appears to be a developing eastward flow of water directly from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida Keys. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Even if a Loop Current Eddy forms today, I still expect we will see some oil make the turn eastward and flow past the Florida Keys by Wednesday. My guess is that the oil will be too thin and scattered to cause significant problems in the Keys, but there is great uncertainty on this.
Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
I'll be back with a new post Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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About Bandu ,you see the remains crossing Africa and emerge as a strong wave?
No...I'm not doubting you or your forecast on 90L.
I was just talking about the ECMWF SST anomaly forecast for several months out.
respectfully,
Kingy
Thanks. Should be an 'interesting' season!
Storm, when do you expect the strong westerly shear in the GOM to relax? Or the sTropical jet to move far enough northwards? TIA.
Does anyone see what I'm seeing?
IF this is a new low forming, it could convince me that the system is trying to transition this morning.
The number of folks here this year is way down. Such a shame.
ABNT20 KNHC 241356
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG WITH WINDS
TO GALE FORCE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
THIS EVENING.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
Its May..... Seriously?
So far, no outage...
May 21, 2010: Systems maintenance will be performed on the GOES East and GOES West satellite antenna coaxial cables Monday May 24, 2010. Please expect outages of these data streams that day.
I don't think it says much for the organisation of this system because its a weak feature that ends with the edge of the rain. I would say that its an enhanced band of cumulus clouds that rotate into the storm's center.
Just thought I'd make a note of it. :)
Glad to be back.. Nice to have an early start on the season.. Always nice to have something to track and discuss..
Oh ok. Thanks. That makes sense. I was looking at it as below normal. It was really hot in the gulf last year without it being bad. I could live with some shear for a while.
working live feed
Working live feed
These forecast offices have issued statements:
Charleston SC
Lake Charles LA
Raleigh NC
Birmingham AL
New York NY
Brownsville TX
Key West FL
Tampa Bay FL
Newport/Morehead City NC
You may need to click through "Previous Version" if the offices have issued additional Public Information Statements since this posting.
You can also just look at all Public Information Statements issued nationally, again clicking through "Previous Version" to view the various local forecast office statements.
loop the floater in that location and you will see a center of circulation and then storms cover the center right then
I find it interesting to see that while the Caribbean, Tropical Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and south-eastern US have below average pressures, that the southeastern US is excluded from the above average precipitation, except for the southern tip of Florida.
I would think that with lower pressures you would see more precipitation either with low pressure systems causing this lower pressure, or it being a weakness in a typical high pressure system directing storm systems, or just Gulf of Mexico moisture that way...
National Hurricane Survival Initiative
********************************************************
Before the Hurricane Season Begins
Develop a plan. Know your homes vulnerability to the threats above - surge, wind, and flooding. Check your supplies - water, batteries, food. For information on developing a Hurricane Supply kit, see our page on that topic. Know where you can evacuate to - friends, relatives, a hotel?
Know when to take action - Watch vs Warning
WATCH: Hurricane conditions are possible in the specified area of the WATCH, usually within 36 hours.
WARNING: Hurricane conditions are expected in the specified area of the WARNING, usually within 24 hours. Remember that there is no such thing as a "minor hurricane." Category 1 and 2 hurricanes still can do significant damage.
Prepare before a Watch or Warning is issued and be ready to evacuate when the Watch comes or earlier if so instructed.
An Approaching Storm
As a storm approaches, you should prepare your house and your yard. Some things to consider:
Turn down the temperature on your freezer and refrigerator as low as possible. This will buy you more time in the event of a power loss. 24 to 48 hours before will cool the food. Avoid opening them whenever possible.
If you are evacuating.
Before you evacuate, call at least one person out of state to let them know your plans.
Ensure that your Hurricane Emergency Kit is fully stocked.
Charge electronic devices, for example, computers, cell phones, rechargeable batteries, razors, and the like.
Make extra ice, bag it - this will be useful to use and to keep the freezer cold.
If you have a generator, do NOT run it inside or near the house. But make sure you have fuel to run it.
Make sure your car has fuel.
Pick up yard debris - furniture, tools, decorative items, branches - anything loose that could become a missile. We have placed furniture in the pool upon occasion.
Secure boats, trailers, campers, RVs, and the like in the safest place you can find. Tie them down, anchor them, or however you can best secure them. But, take into account that there may be a storm surge.
Secure all doors and windows with locks, and shutters if available. Plywood, properly secured, can be effective. Don't forget your garage doors.
Move items that may be damaged by water to higher areas of your home if you can not take them with you if evacuating. Move them away from windows in case they are broken.
Huge items must even be secured in big storms. An engine block was found 40 or 50 feet up in a pine tree in the Homestead (actually Redlands) area after Andrew. Don't think that something is too big to be moved by the wind.
Re-check tie-downs.
Bring cars, bikes, scooters and anything like that into your garage if possible.
Bring in grills or other cooking items.
Bring in hoses, trash cans, hot tub covers, wind-chimes, plants.
Caulk and fill bathtubs - extra water comes in handy for toilets and more..
It may sound strange, but do your laundry, dishes, and take a shower. Why? Because if you lose power, having as much clean as possible will make a big difference.
Check if your pool pump should be on or off.
Close and fasten gates so they don't swing.
Close chimney flues.
Close/latch inside doors and cabinets.
If you have time, help your neighbors. Debris in their yards can easily impact your home and yard.
During a storm.
Stay inside, away from windows
Be alert for tornadoes
Stay away from flood waters and storm surge. It can be deceptively strong.
Be aware of the eye. It may be calm, but winds can and will pick up quickly and could catch you outside.
Un-plug electronic devices that are not in use to avoid surge damage.
After a Storm
Know power safety - avoid downed lines
Know food safety - what is good and for how long.
Chain saw safety is critical
Generator safety is important too
Water treatment - whether water needs to be boiled or not.
Listen to local officials
Use flashlights instead of candles
Inspect your home for damage.
Stay off roads as much as possible
You may need to super-chlorinate your pool
********************************************************
Nope i got it up working fine.......I was just watching for a mutant creature to swim by that has changed from the oil....:(
Conditions at 41048 as of
(9:50 am EDT)
1350 GMT on 05/24/2010
Currently:
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1014.7 mb
05 23 9:50am 1019.7 mb
Watches @ 48 hours
Warnings @ 36 hours
The change statement can be seen on the NHC website. Look @ Public information statements dated January 2, 2010.
NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG
La Nina years haven't been associated with a more active N. Atlantic hurricane season, compared to ENSO neutral years, since the mid 90s.
Earlier this week the president slapped a 6 month moratorium into place for all deep water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. The order includes both drilling ships and deep water rigs that are used at the most extreme depths.
There are 33 deep water rigs currently drilling and the majority of them, 11, belong to Transocean the owner of the Deep Water Horizon. Diamond Offshore and Nobel each own 6 and Ensco owns the last two.
From Klfy.com, a local tv station in Lafayette....concerning the moratorium on offshore drilling (not good news)....
"All four are Texas companies located in Houston and stand to lose five million dollars for every day the moratorium continues. But, the collateral damage created by the moratorium is the real story.
Because hundreds of service companies and thousands of their employees are located here in Louisiana, their business and employees will bear the brunt of the shut down."
There are no figures available as to what that may cost in lost work and lost.
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