Warmest April on record for the globe
The globe recorded its warmest April since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. The April temperature anomaly of 0.76°C (1.37°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.05°C. The is the second consecutive warmest month on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated April 2010 as the warmest April on record. The year-to-date period, January - April, is the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. NASA also rated the last 12-month period (May 2009 - April 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. April 2010 global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record for the 2nd month in a row, while land temperatures were the 3rd warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in April, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from April 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2010. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
A very warm April for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest April in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. California was the coldest state, relative to average, with its 12th coldest April. No state had a top-ten coldest April. Five states had their warmest April on record--Illinois, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey. Sixteen other states had top-ten warmest Aprils.
U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., April 2010 ranked as the 36th driest in the 116-year record. Louisiana, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Connecticut, and Massachusetts all had top-ten driest Aprils. Only Oregon had a top-ten wet April. At the end of April, 2% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is the lowest April drought footprint in the U.S. in the past ten years.
El Niño is over
El Niño rapidly weakened during late April and early May, with sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling 0.65°C in just one month. This brought SSTs into "neutral" conditions, at 0.18°C above average, which is well below the 0.5°C above average threshold to be considered an El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer. This is what happened during the last strong El Niño event in 1998--El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a significantly above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Over the full 160-year period we have records of Atlantic hurricanes, La Niña years have typically had more hurricanes, and more strong hurricanes, compared to neutral years. However, since 1995, there hasn't been any difference between neutral and La Niña years in terms of hurricane activity.
April sea ice extent in the Arctic near average in April
April 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 15th lowest (or 18th greatest) since satellite measurements began in 1979, so was near average. However, the ice volume anomaly was at a record low at the end of April, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Wind patterns this spring have pushed a great deal of the oldest ice out of the Arctic, leaving mostly thin ice that is vulnerable to rapid melting. The first two weeks of May have seen unusual warmth in the Arctic, leading to rapid melting, and ice extent as of May 20 was the 2nd lowest on record, behind 2006, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
I'll be back this afternoon to talk about the oil spill and the tropics. I'm working on a post about how a hurricane passing over the spill might affect the oil. I'll post it if I have time to finish it.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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ECMWF/GFS are in fairly good agreement bringing this hybrid/subtropical low towards the NC outer banks.
How about A link to what you are talking about.
Very true. If it holds on through this immediate time frame, then we look to the upper level ridge for the future of this system.
Noticed that in doing analysis this morning. Lets see how far north this approaching shortwave/trough pull this system and then we'll have a really good idea as to where this system will eventually land.
Its decoupled due to strong upper winds
Don't you love it when you have one defined naked center to work with? lol
The longer the shortwave takes to head into the North Atlantic, the longer high pressure builds west and the further northwest the system can get.
I couldn't agree more. :( Seems every discussion I read is saying things like this about the NW GOM.
ISSUED 333 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MO MOVING
NE...AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN
GULF CONTINUING TO PROVIDE S TO SE FLOW OVER THIS REGION.
looks like 2009 all over :P
This is the area that concerns me most at this point. Anything in the area of those SSTs could blow up real quickly!
This is the whole key as far as the future track. The sooner the shortwave/trough exits the scene, the further south the track will be. Right now, I would say the Carolinas have the highest chances, but of course thats not guaranteed, especially if this doesn't end up developing much further.
Yawn,.."stretch"
yeah I am, there is a slight risk of severe storms here today
Speculations were posted yesterday and Wednesday...one of the causes was that it conflicted with a press conference or some sort of meeting to do with the oil spill.
12z GFS 126 Hours
Tropical Tidbit for Friday, May 21st: Tropical concern for the southeast coast next week
morning Levi, crazy stuff isn't it?
* By Stephane Jourdain
* From: AFP
* May 22, 2010 2:05Am
BP OFFICIALS deny botching the month-long clean-up of an oil spill off the Gulf of Mexico and deliberately hiding the true extent of the disaster.
With a thick sludge now washing up in the Mississippi delta threatening disaster for a wealth of animal and plant life, the US administration has set the British energy giant tight deadlines to come clean about their operation.
Just how much oil is gushing from a pipe ruptured when the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded and sank a month ago has been a contentious issue, with BP initially putting the figure at 5000 barrels a day.
"That was not just BP's estimate. That was the estimate of the in-flight command, including NOAA and the Coast Guard. That's the best estimate we have," BP's chief operating officer Doug Suttles said on Friday.
But the company says it is now siphoning 5000 barrels a day from the leak by a 1600-metre-long insertion tube device, and live webcam television pictures show more oil continuing to spew into the Gulf from the ruptured well, meaning the figure must be higher.
Mr Suttles sought to quell the growing anger among the US administration, residents and lawmakers that not enough is being done, with the spill flowing unchecked since April 20 just 80km off the Louisiana coast.
"We've thrown everything at that," he said on ABC television, saying the company has so far spent about $869.67 million on the clean-up.
"We've mounted the largest response ever done in the world. We put 20,000 people at this."
He confirmed BP had met a late Thursday deadline set by the US administration to answer concerns over the chemical dispersant used to break up the oil slick on the surface, but had failed to find a less toxic alternative.
"Right now, we cannot identify another product that is available that is better than the Corexit product," he said, stressing the dispersant they're using is on a list approved by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Democratic US congressman Ed Markey voiced the frustrations of many Americans, saying: "We're beginning to understand that we cannot trust BP. People do not trust the experts any longer. BP has lost all credibility."
With thick patches of oil tarring coastal Louisiana marshes, a haven for migratory birds and rare wildlife that will be virtually impossible to clean up, local leaders have started to despair.
For sure. At least this isn't a true tropical development, but we may even still get that out of the Caribbean sometime next week.
BP denies botching Gulf of Mexico clean-up
35 mins ago
Amid increasing anger over a huge oil slick hitting US shores, BP officials Friday denied botching the month-long clean-up and deliberately hiding the true extent of the spill..
With a thick sludge now washing up in the Mississippi delta threatening disaster for a wealth of animal and plant life, the US administration has set the British energy giant tight deadlines to come clean about their operation................
The GFS is having its same old issues....no upgrade in resolution is going to change its inability to correctly handle the heat transfers in the atmosphere. It's feeding back to the east and splitting the energy....typical.
StormW, i'm getting an error when i click the link to your blog. Cause of this:http://http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormW/
Ok you noticed and fixed it.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 211639
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010
SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
27N72W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N70W. ANOTHER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W.
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN DONE FOR THIS FEATURE...AND THE EARLIEST
SHORT-TERM FORECAST INDICATES THAT IT WILL STAY IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MORE OR LESS ITS SAME PRESSURE
VALUE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 24N TO 27N
BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.
90L on Tuesday
and maybe this is Bonnie by Thursday
16:33:00Z 4.550N 15.517W 830.3 mb
(~ 24.52 inHg) 1,752 meters
(~ 5,748 feet) 1014.9 mb
(~ 29.97 inHg) - From 162° at 33 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 37.9 mph) 17.5°C
(~ 63.5°F) 13.0°C (~ 55.4°F)
116 knots (~ 133.4 mph) (flight level 10sec ave)
You are doing the same thing you critize others for doing with Bastardi, pre judging the new GFS without actually looking into what is new. Along with resolution, the physics are changing also.
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