Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current and hit the Keys
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon is moving little, thanks to the light winds of 10 knots or less that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past few days. According to the latest NWS marine forecast, winds will remain light through Saturday, which should result in little transport of the oil slick. The latest trajectory forecast from the NOAA Office of Response and Restoration continues to show that the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Chandeleur Islands will be the only land areas affected by the spill over the next two days.
On Sunday, the winds will begin increasing and shifting to the southeast. The latest run of the GFS model shows that this will be a week-long period of southeast winds, with wind speeds at times reaching 20 - 25 knots. These winds will threaten to bring oil to a large portion of the Louisiana coast, including regions of the central Louisiana coast west of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi and Alabama coasts will also be at risk next week, but the risk to the Florida Panhandle is lower.
Figure 1. Forecast location of the oil spill for Friday, May 7, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.
Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current
A major concern with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is the possibility for the oil to move southwards and become entrained into the mighty Gulf of Mexico Loop Current, which would rapidly transport the oil through the Florida Keys, impacting northwest Cuba, South Florida, the western Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast all the way to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. However, there is no immediate danger of this happening. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) indicate that the currents will not be favorable for pulling any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days. Oil will have to travel approximately 100 miles to the south-southeast to get entrained into the Loop Current, and we probably would need a 2+ day period of strong winds out of the north for this to happen. The long-range GFS model indicates that the earliest this might happen is 10+ days from now. As summer gets closer, the incidence of cold fronts making it far enough south to bring an extended period of offshore northerly winds to the Gulf of Mexico decreases. I think there is a 40% chance that the next cold front capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current will arrive by the end of June. However, I think it is more likely that the next such front will not arrive until October, when fall comes.
That makes a tropical storm or hurricane as perhaps the most likely weather event to push oil into the Loop Current over the next few months. A tropical storm hitting the Panhandle of Florida would do the trick, by bringing northerly winds over the oil spill location, thanks to the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm. Looking ahead to June, June tropical storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico, and we've been averaging one June storm every two years since 1995. This year, the odds of a June Gulf of Mexico storm are probably a little lower than usual. While Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures are near average, wind shear from our lingering El Niño will probably be above average. Since 1995, there have been three June tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico that have followed a track capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current. These storms were Hurricane Allison of 1995, Tropical Storm Allison of 2001, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 2005. Taking into account all these factors, I'll give a 20% chance that we'll get a June tropical storm capable of transporting oil into the Loop Current.
Figure 2. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes, 1851 - 2006.
Next Post
I'll have a new post Friday. Next week, I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's bi-annual conference on hurricane science, and will be updating you on all the latest advancements in hurricane research.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thank you, Oh Wise One.
I am gladdened by your words.
I too, expect that rains will fall, with the next moon.
I checked your local forecast, you all have a 20-40% chance of rain staring this weekend, through all of next week!
remember people no more blackout!!!!!
Try this one, weatherbrat.
Link
as we type dry air pulls away moist flow building NW WARD in off NE SA and ITCZ
Could be close to 2005!
Yeah, and if you look at the recent past forecasts, you will see that we have been getting that for some time now.. I know it's coming, and I know this is "transition" time. I just wish it would get here soon.
Thanks Keeper. But I have been trying not to look at that......
2005 had two June storms; Cindy did not develop until July 3.
Well, if things turn out that way, you will get to be the next Edgar Cayce or something......
Atmo, awesome analogy. That is not very likely, by the way.
I've dropped the peanut butter bread way more than twice in 100 years.
Season is changing, there is plenty of moisture close by to your east :o).
I think that's the toned down version...
Does it land on is left edge, or on the floor peanut butter side down?
Greetings and salutations Pottery!
2006
2007
2008
now
But how many times in a hundred did it land on it's left edge?
Not really understanding the forecasts for a 2005-like season, myself. The only factor that is as favorable (or arguably more favorable) as in 2005 are SSTs. These, of course, are only one of many factors.
A season like 1995 or 1998 is much more plausible.
I hear you. I just felt to grumble a little about the dam heat and dry.
Hopefully, I dont have to grumble about too much rain come next month and beyond..
well... see you tomorrow
Link
And @atmo
Sorry, not familiar enough with the coordinate system used to identify the left edge of peanut butter bread.
Darn! Mine always land on its right edge! I'm unlucky I guess..
Seen the sun recently?
Well, if you use a compass and orient the top to north...
Awww, nevermind...
A serious flaw in your education, obviously.
heheheheh
yeah, i don't know either, lol
better let it rest. forgive the diversion.
Your holding the peanut buttered bread, peanut butter side up. Look at the left crust of the bread. OK, when you dropped the peanut buttered bread, did it land on that left corner? Probably not, just kidding with you of course. Beell, you're a very intelligent blogger, forecasting TC development is not an exact science. The odds of us having another 28 TC season is slim to none this year.
Today in fact, yard is still swampy but one more day of sunshine should dry things out nicely. We have an incredible group of mushrooms and/or toadstools growing in the back yard. Some of them we have not even been able to identify. Have one in particular that is quite odd. Dark red open topped creature that looks a little like a Venus Fly Trap sort of thing. Still can't identify that one.
Well given that in one hundred years of paying attention we saw 1933 and 2005, well, the odds are exactly 2% we could have a season like 2005 (which was somewhat like 1933), this year or any year, exclusive of conditions. (well, maybe not exactly 2%, a little less in reality)
Yeah, more than 2% considering conditions so far this year, but really, not likely.
Obviously.
No problem, Bordo
Just raggin' the Aggie!
I would avoid eating that one. Although, you never know.
Glad to hear that the Sun is upon your shoulders.
And just in case, I enjoy my crow slow cooked in sweet cooking sherry, with a hint of garlic, oregano and thyme, well done please. Hopefully, crow tastes like chicken :o).
And, no, I wasn't dropped on my head as a child, and no closed brain injuries either.
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