Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The east coast has been spared these couple of seasons this year i have a feeling the sast coast of florida and north carolina will be the danger spots this year.

Quoting TexasGulf:
I've always believed that, since hurricanes were first named, they have lived up or down to those names. Perhaps it is coincidence, but tough names seem to coincide with devastating hurricanes, while weak names belong to lesser storms.

Since the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is around the corner... I'd like to try prognosticating this year's hurricanes and tropical storms based on their names. I did a similar prediction before the 2009 season with astounding results (per my definition of astounding).

Alex: Alex will be a weak disturbance, as most Alex's frequently are. He will head North-East quickly through Florida as a weak tropical storm, then up the eastern seaboard. Alex's are typically not welcome in Alabama, Miss., Louisiana or Texas... so he will make a bee-line from Florida pan handle to North Carolina.

Bonnie: Bonnie is a fiery hurricane with a mind of her own. She will be early in the season and storm quickly ashore as a Cat-2. Bonnie will rain on everyone's parade in June, likely passing through Miss. and then up through Tennessee. Bonnie won't be remembered for her winds, but for her rain and lasting temper. She will spin up tornadoes in her path.

Colin: Colin will spin up at sea, then die out within a day or so. Nobody wants to put up plywood on their windows with spray paint saying "go away Colin". Besides, nobody wants to stand on a beach somewhere waiting for "colin". It wouldn't look good in newspaper headlines either. Colin will go away quickly, un-noticed.

Danielle: Danielle will be a strong tropical storm, bringing much needed rains north through Alabama and Western Florida. Danielle's are nice typically, so there will be no bluster or damage in her wake.

Earl: Hurricane Earl will be the first serious hurricane threat of the season. He will be a Cat-3 forming near the Northern Antilles. Earl will downgrade to a Cat-2, but not before brushing Hispaniola and ruining several vacations in the Bahamas due to heavy rain and surf. Earl's are tenacious, so he will make landfall 3 times, finally winding up as a tropical storm in Georgia.

Fiona: Fiona will be a Cat-1, Western Gulf. She will want to go into Northern Mexico and bring heavy rains to the Rio Grande and King's Ranch (getting at least 4 cows wet) before moving North to storm over the midwest.

Gaston: Gaston is French, so has to visit New Orleans. Watch for Gaston to form in mid-gulf, then storm ashore as a strong tropical storm around New Iberia, La.

Hermine: Be serious! Hermine? Doesn't look good on a sign, name doesn't scare anyone... so unlike many of the H names, Hermine won't have the right stuff. She will brush Cuba as a strong tropical storm, then be downgraded to tropical depression before making landfall near the Florida keys.

Igor: Strong, tough, easy to spell... Igor has all the hallmarks of a Monster Storm. Watch for Igor to be the first Cat-4 of the season. He will form in the Caribbean, force his way through the channel West of Cuba... then storm into the Alabama - Florida Panhandle area as a Cat-4. Igor will have no mercy, so you'd better have good insurance.

Julia will form in the Atlantic just East of the Bahamas. She will pass just North of the Bahamas as a weak Cat-1, then pass off the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. as a fast moving tropical storm before turning out into the North Atlantic. Julia won't even be a treat to shipping.

Hurricane Karl: Tough name (even misspelled with a K) so you know he came to fight. It's also easy to spell on T-shirts and the name has a certain ring to it... so Karl will be a major hurricane. Not being particularly bright, Karl will wander on an uneven path for a while and bring destruction to Haiti and Eastern Cuba before emerging into the gulf. Karl will regain Cat-3 status as he slowly wanders to Mississippi. He will sit on the Mississippi coast for 2-days before finally moving inland.

Hurricane Lisa will form to the South of Karl, but will keep her distance. Lisa is very predictable and easy to spell... so she has to make landfall. Lisa's are always welcome in Western Texas, so she will head for Victoria Texas as a weak Cat-2.

Matthew: Matthew will NOT look good on T-shirts or plywood, so won't be on either. Matthew has to go through Eastern Florida and then up to Massachusetts, not really being welcome anywhere else. He will be a wimpy tropical storm, but will rain and cry all the way up North.

Hurricane Nicole: Cat-1 strength, Nicole will skirt past the lesser Antilles, then get turned to the North as it will be late in the season. Nicole won't get much notice and won't be much of a threat to anything but tourism in the islands.

Hurricane Otto: Otto is the big one. A late September Cat-5, Otto will roar through the Carribean, brushing Caymen Islands, hitting Cuba hard, then emerging into the Gulf as a Cat-3. Otto will re-form into a Cat-4 and be one of the largest, noisiest hurricanes in recent memory. Nobody in Texas or Louisiana is named Otto... so sorry Alabama, but he's all yours. Otto will storm all the way back out into the Atlantic, emerging still as a strong tropical storm around Martha's Vineyard. He will be known as "Otto the October Hurricane of 2010". Notice.. OTTO, October and 2010 all have two O's in them? Coincidence? I think not.

Paula is the second to last storm of the season. Paula will form in the Southern Caribbean, then move North to rain over Hispaniola as a lingering tropical storm. Paula will cause coastal flooding and mudslides before she moves into the Atlantic.

Richard: The last hurricane of the season, Richard will form far out in the tropical Atlantic, then move toward the lesser Antilles before turning North into the U.S. Virgin Islands. Richard has ambitions, but can't seem to get above a strong Cat-2 in strength. Richard will then move North to vacation in Bermuda before turning into the North Atlantic.

That is my prediction for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season based upon the names of the storms. 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.

:>) I'm good!

ya but ya missed scary shary

I guess everyone left?

Can we put an end this year to the pseudo science skeptics post on global warming?

Link


dawn breaking over land of fire and ice toggle to full screen by right clicking mouse over image then select full screen exit full screen click Esc key

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Link


dawn breaking over land of fire and ice toggle to full screen by right clicking mouse over image then select full screen exit full screen click Esc key

Nice link. Waiting to see if all the volcanic activity and tectonic action is trend. This is not an area of science we really know what is going on. I think we have heighten short term trend. I would not be surprised if more earthquakes and volcano’s in next few months. Something is going on below.

:0

Quoting xcool:
Link



Accuweather's landfall

Any opportunity to watch a Bastardi video, is an opportunity I will grab at, cause he is so entertaining! I don't disagree with his ideas of an active season, but for that matter, who doesn't (here or otherwise). Mean time, the best effort he made at forecasting this year's potential landfalls was when he drew that big yellow circle over FL and the Gulf. Otherwise, he showed a lot of maps and charts, posted some entertaining discussion, but never made a solid connection. For starters, if he was trying to make a point of a return cycle for the '38 hurricane, well, his arguement was very weak, as he never discussed the climate of that specific era.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Link


dawn breaking over land of fire and ice toggle to full screen by right clicking mouse over image then select full screen exit full screen click Esc key

this is a view from closer up Link

Volcanic ash unlikely to cool planet



The volcanic ash cloud that exploded from an Icelandic volcano this week is not expected to have an impact on global temperatures, says an Australian climatologist.

The volcano, located under the Eyjafjallajokull glacier, erupted on Thursday producing a 10-kilometre high plume of ash and rock that has extended across most of northern Europe.

The debris has caused the closure of airports in the UK, Norway, Denmark, Belgium and Sweden, and produced spectacular sunsets in the region.

While the particles may have an effect on local temperatures in the short-term, experts don't believe it will have the same impact as the Pinatubo eruption two decades earlier.

In June 1991, Mount Pinatubo, an active volcano in the Philippines, launched ten cubic kilometres of material into the atmosphere.

Particles from the eruption entered the Earth's stratosphere resulting in a 10% reduction in sunlight reaching the Earth's surface, and a 0.4C drop in global average temperatures.

Dr Blair Trewin of the National Climate Centre in Melbourne says, in its current form the ash cloud is unlikely to have the same impact on global temperatures.

"For a volcano to have a significant global cooling effect it has to get its ash up into the stratosphere," he says. "If it doesn't, the ash will get rained out fairly quickly."

Even if the material reaches the stratosphere, Trewin believes the volcano's location will result in the ash staying in the northern hemisphere.

"Once you're in the stratosphere the winds tend to flow out from the equator to the poles," he says. "So if you get a big eruption in the tropics the winds in the stratosphere will tend to spread out material over the whole globe.

"Whereas if it happens in the polar regions the stuff tends to get stuck - it doesn't spread up to lower latitudes."

But Trewin says the volcanic ash cloud may have an impact locally.

"When Mount St Helens erupted in 1980 it had no significant global impacts, but in the days immediately after the eruption you had cooling of daylight temperatures by 10C or more in some parts of the northwestern United States."

Dr Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology at Weather Underground says the eruption isn't expected to have a significant impact on weather patterns in the northern hemisphere.

"However, the ash could bring spectacular sunsets to Europe over the next week, and to North America by sometime next week, as the jet stream wraps the ash cloud eastwards across the northern hemisphere."

ABC 2010

Air disruption could last a week


AIRLINES warn that Europe-bound flights from Australia could be delayed up to a week by the vast cloud of volcanic ash blanketing most of the continent.

About 2000 Qantas customers in Asian ports are being given the option of onward flights to other destinations or flights back to Australia.

The national carrier estimates 8000 Qantas customers have been impacted by the eruption, while about 100 international passengers stranded in Australia are being accommodated in Sydney hotels.

Mr Epstein said five daily flights usually bound for Europe today would proceed to Asian stopovers but not to onward destinations.

"It's a question of making a judgment not just when the airspace is open but when the airports are actually capable of taking our flights in and out in a way that doesn't disrupt passengers too much."

The backlog of customers would be accommodated as much as possible, Mr Epstein said, including flexibility with fares and rescheduling.
Qantas' meteorological unit tracks volcanic activity 24 hours a day, Mr Epstein said.

"It's best to put safety before schedule and where there's any question of volcanic ash being in the air we would prefer to take the safe approach rather than risk it to get flights in."

The Air Transport Association in Geneva estimates the current cost of the eruption to major airlines at around $US200 million ($214 million) each day.

An Emirates spokesperson said passengers were urged not to go to airports before establishing the status of their flights.

"Emirates is keeping its flying schedule under constant review and will aim to give customers as much notice as possible once more information is received from European Air Traffic Control authorities," the spokesperson said.

Singapore Airlines spokeswoman Susan Bredow told AAP all passengers stranded in Singapore would be brought home free of charge.

"We're going to bring everyone home as soon as as possible," she said.

Flights started bringing passengers back to Australia on Saturday and passengers were being re-booked with a five-day delay anticipated.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
This might be early but when do all of you think the first depression will form (in the Atl of course)
1: April
2: May 1-15
3: May 16-31
4: June 1-15
5: June 16-30
6: July 1-15
7: July 16-31
8: August

I'll take #6 ...........

407. If we get to Walter in October its very likely we'll see Alpha, Beta, Gamma again in November and December.

44 days...
17 hours...
9 minutes...til June 1st.

Quoting altesticstorm10:
Hurricane Alex: Despite many interesting invests that were sights for us in May, there will be no official named storm until the first week of June, when a disturbance in the NW Caribbean becomes Tropical Storm Alex. Alex will strengthen gradually moving to the northeast and crash ashore on Florida's west coast as a minimal Cat-1 hurricane, winds 75 mph. Alex will provide much-needed drought relief to much of the South as it moves north up the Florida Peninsula and into the mainland.

Tropical Storm Bonnie: After a couple quiet weeks, Bonnie forms from the south tail end of a trough moving off the East Coast. The storm organizes and is named, then parallels the East Coast (causing rain impacts, but nothing serious) as a moderate tropical storm, 60 mph, and eventually accelerates out to sea, becomes extratropical and dies.

Tropical Storm Colin: In the last week of June, a surface low in the NW Caribbean merged with a tropical wave will spawn the 3rd named storm of the season. Colin will move generally northward in the Gulf and impact New Orleans--->Alabama as a strong tropical storm, winds 70 mph at landfall. Colin will cause minor to moderate flooding impacts but nothing lethal there.

Hurricane Danielle: Far to the east of Colin, at the end of June or the very beginning of July, the first Cape Verde-type storm of the season forms near 10N 43W, after much debate over whether or not it would develop. However, when it finally encounters favorable conditions, it develops into a tropical storm and evolves into a hurricane by the time it reaches the Southeastern Caribbean. The Bermuda High is strengthened, as the weakness that forced Colin nearly due north is long gone and too far north to affect Danielle. The hurricane explodes into a strong Cat 4(winds 155 mph) over hte hot water of the Caribbean and drives WNW into the Yucatan, and makes landfall in Mexico about 100 miles south of the TX/MX border as a strong Category Three hurricane. Lives are lost in Mexico.

Hurricane Earl: Behind Danielle is another poised Cape Verde-type storm, which makes two for the first couple weeks in July. Earl takes a path slightly north of Danielle and strengthens to a major hurricane in the Caribbean. However, a new trough from the Pacific comes into the picture and affects Earl's track significantly, forcing him to the northwest and eventually north-northwest. After reaching peak intensity of 150 mph (Cat 4), Earl slams into Cuba and is weakened to a Cat 3. However, once Earl emerges back into the Gulf, he re-strengthens back to 150 mph, then weakens to a strong Cat 3 (125 mph) and makes landfall in the western Florida panhandle, affecting surrouding states. Major destruction is caused by Hurricane Earl. Many lives are lost. Earl becomes the first severely disastrous event for the United States in the hyperactive 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

Tropical Storm Fiona: After Earl crashes ashore, a weak disturbance to the southwest of Bermuda (similar to Chantal in 2007) organizes and develops into a tropical storm, moving gradually to the NNW. Fiona's peak intensity reaches 65 mph, and its speed slowly accelerates and when the trough comes off the east coast, Fiona accelerates quickly to the NNE and hits Nova Scotia as a weakening, nearly extratropical storm (also like Chantal). Minor damage is reported in Canada.

Hurricane Gaston: Two quiet days in the Atlantic basin pass in July, and then comes the strongest Cape Verde hurricane of the season yet. Gaston forms from TD7 in the East Atlantic, and, influenced by the strong Bermuda High above, Gaston plows slightly north of due west into the NE Caribbean as a major hurricane and sideswipes Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, causing many people in Haiti to die of massive floods. However, Gaston is far from done. Gaston re-organizes after devastating Jamaica and becomes a Category 5 hurricane (165 mph) in the Northwest Caribbean as it continues that WWWNW track. Gaston trucks into the Yucatan as a Category 5, reemerges into the Bay of Campeche and is forced slightly south of due west into Veracruz as a Category 4 hurricane. In Mexico and Central America, Gaston becomes the most devastating hurricane of all time, killing many thousands of people (nearly 2/3 of these in Haiti).

Tropical Storm Hermine: In the last week of July, a tropical storm forms from an overhyped CV wave that never developed until it made it to 22N 60W. Fortunately, Hermine (peak winds, 50 mph) is too far north to not be pulled out to sea, and Bermuda is soaked by Hermine, but no lives are lost. The storm accelerates and becomes extratropical, and is never heard from again.

Hurricane Igor:

August has arrived, and a disturbance with a surface low - of course, it's 2010 - forms out of the blue from a tropical wave in the western Caribbean, develops into a tropical storm, and moves northwestward into the Yucatan as a strong TS. In the Gulf, Igor is rejuvenated and reaches moderate Category 1 hurricane intensity (85 mph) and makes landfall just north of Tampico, killing a few dozen people there.

Hurricane Julia: After nearly a week of inactivity in the Atlantic, it begins to boil over - many poised tropical waves now exist in the basin. The westernmost one, a "failure" lingering to the north of Puerto Rico, finally gets its act together and develops into Tropical Storm Julia, and gradually gains intensity and size, becoming a weak category 2 hurricane at its peak (100 mph). A stalled trough over the US causes Julia's movement to be slow, and this causes Julia's center of circulation to linger slightly off the north coast of Haiti - its strong southern rain bands causing Haiti to be deluged with rain once again. This horribly tips Haiti over the edge - just over a fortnight after powerful Gaston, Julia is the straw that breaks the camel's back for the devastated Haitians. Nearly 10,000 are killed in Haiti due to Julia's impact on the impoverished nation. The trough finally directs Julia toward the north-northwest, and Julia weakens to a strong tropical storm before making landfall in South Carolina. Minor to moderate damages are reported there.

Hurricane Karl: Karl becomes the second major US disaster of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. A good 20-25 degrees in longitude behind Julia, Cape-Verde type hurricane Karl roars through the open water of the Atlantic, and after the trough makes its way into the Atlantic, Karl begins to take a northwest turn, seemingly out to sea. However, the high strengthens at the last minute over Karl, and the trough fades as it heads to Europe. Karl is then forced west-northwestward toward the Carolinas, and reaches its peak intensity of 155 mph (Category 4). It slightly weakens, but remains a Cat. 4 as it makes landfall in the Outer Banks region of North Carolina. It is the first East Coast major devastating hurricane since Isabel in 2003, the storm cracks the top 10 for costliest hurricanes ever, and many American lives are lost.

Hurricane Lisa: Spinning much more daintily behind Karl is Cape-Verde type Lisa, another 25 degrees in latitude back, who takes a more southerly course, and remains a tropical storm for 6 days as it treks across the Atlantic Ocean, possibly due to the upwelling caused by Karl. However, when Lisa gets to the red-hot Bahamas region, she begins to take off like an airplane. The high forces Lisa westward through the Florida Straits, and Florida is spared of a major hurricane, and is instead sideswiped by then-minor Lisa. However, Lisa's tale does not end in Florida. Not even close. Lisa becomes a huge threat to the Gulf Coast, and much speculation is made over the landfall of Lisa (Lisa has become an extremely powerful Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph, making her the strongest of the season [so far]) - the track could take her anywhere from Brownsville to New Orleans. However, dainty as she is, Lisa splits the difference and crashes ashore in Galveston as a strong Category Three hurricane (125 mph), slightly weakened by an eyewall replacement cycle and the slight entrainment of dry air into the system. Still, Lisa causes major devastation in Galveston similar to Hurricane Ike, bringing Category 5-level storm surge and many tornadoes to the Texas and Louisiana coasts. New Orleans is but sideswiped. August is not done - not by a long shot.

Hurricane Matthew: Matthew, however, is not so lucky. A good thirty degrees of longitude behind devastating Lisa, Tropical Storm Matthew develops out of a wave seen as weak by many before. However, Matthew is able to form near 18N 55W, and seems poised to give the already-pounded United States another run for its money. However, brewing hot on Matthew's tail is the strongest Cape Verde hurricane of the season yet - powerful annular Hurricane Nicole, an unusually large Category 4 to the ENE of Matthew 5-7 degrees of longitude less than and a couple degrees of latitude above Matthew spells the demise of the weaker storm here. Matthew takes a jog to the north and reaches minimal hurricane status (75 mph) and then weakens quite quickly due to the shearing impacts of our Nicole. Matthew becomes a remnant low, and is eventually "eaten alive" by the High.

Hurricane Nicole: Argued by most as the worst hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Nicole forms from a well-organized wave coming off the coast of Africa in mid-August. After some time, Nicole develops into a hurricane and forms an unusually well-organized ring of convection similar to Isabel in 2003. And also similar to Isabel, unfortunately, Nicole defies the usual rule of "20N+50W=Fish Storm", and continues heading to the west under the influence of the High. Nicole takes the life of weak Hurricane Matthew and heads westward into the Bahamas, fluctuating only between Category 4 and 5 intensity (peak: 175 mph) under consistent <10 knot shear whilst gaining in size maintaing its awesome, axisymmetric annular appearance. Nicole slams into South Florida as a Category 4, and there is no way out - except to evacuate. Everything is ruined by this devastating storm - its Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) rating blowing acrostic namesake Ike's IKE off the charts as it catapults into the Sunshine State. Nicole then travels westward in the Gulf, strengthens back to Category 5 (up to 190 mph) and becomes the largest-sized tropical cyclone in global recorded history (surpassing Typhoon Tip) and, due to a trough moving across the US, is pulled northward into the Southeast Louisiana Coast, making landfall as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of only 165 mph on the last day of August 2010. New Orleans is not spared, this time. The final impact of Nicole is felt in Florida and Texas simultaneously, while New Orleans experiences the true wrath of the catastrophic storm. Nicole becomes the worst hurricane in U.S. history, blowing Katrina out of the water in money damage and narrowly edging the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 in number of deaths. New Orleans fares more than three times worse than it did post-Katrina...imagine that.

Hurricane Otto: Nicole stole the attention, and apparently she also stole some of the steam out of the entire ocean - as the hyperactive period ended. However, the season was far from over. On the seventh day of September, Tropical Storm Otto formed from a Cape Verde wave that emerged further north than usual. Otto quickly attained hurricane status (85 mph), but due to much previous upwelling and incresed shear, Otto was not able to strengthen further - and due to the previous trough, the one that had pulled Nicole into New Orleans, screaming into the open Atlantic and breaking down the membranes of the High - Otto was not able to venture past 46W. The storm was pulled out to sea, and dissapated two days later as it accelerated east-northeastward.

Hurricane Paula: Though more respectable than Otto, Paula met the same fate. Tracking fifteen degrees of longitude behind Otto was Paula, who formed from a wave further south than Otto. However, Paula was too influenced by the trough and the weakness left behind by Otto, and began to turn to the NCATL graveyard near 48-49W. Paula maxed out at Category Three intensity (120 mph) but was weakened shortly after by stronger upper-level winds and cooler water temperatures. Paula dissipated several days later as it became extratropical, eventually going on to bring Europe some much-needed rain as an extratropical system.

Tropical Storm Richard: Alas! The string of hurricanes has been broken. However, Richard packed more of a punch than the last two - if you're a human and not a fish, that is. The storm formed in early-mid September in the Gulf of Mexico from a well-hyped low and made landfall in Texas near Corpus Christi as a solid 65 mph storm, bringing some rain to a state which had split faces over the fact that they were going to be getting rain. The weakened depression was absorbed by a frontal boundary which slid into Texas. A few indirect deaths were caused by pesky little Richard, but damages were generally minor.

Tropical Storm Shary: In mid-late September (near the 20th), a lingering tail edge of an Atlantic front formed into TD18, located 200 miles to the ENE of Puerto Rico. Shary traveled generally northwestward in the vicinity, but was absorbed in three days by the fast-moving trough that picked up Richard picked up Shary as well, and Shary was never able to threaten land nor approach hurricane status (peak: 50 mph).

Tropical Storm Tomas:

Tomas formed just to the east of the southern Lesser Antilles just a day after Shary. Tomas traveled westward for a couple days, and then was pulled northward by the same trough that pulled Shary out to sea. Tomas reached peak intensity of 70 mph and shot the gap between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, narrowly missing yet another strike on Haiti. Tomas accelerated northward and eventually north-northeastward and northeastward out to sea and was never heard from again.

Tropical Storm Virginie:

"Virginie" will always be a virgin - to land, that is. In late September, a subtropical storm formed in the far Central Atlantic (near 33N 60W) and eventually became tropical, reaching peak sustained winds of 45 mph and following the path of four out of the last five Atlantic systems and rollout out to the North Atlantic graveyard, dying the traditional "fish storm" death.

Hurricane Walter: I love Walter. You love Walter. Everybody loves Wal-tah, don't they? Well, not if you're a Floridian, you don't. After a long period of inactivity, a tropical depression formed nearly exactly where Tomas formed in the second week of October, and moved westward into the Caribbean. Walter became a hurricane, and gradually developed into a major hurricane in the central Caribbean. Walter took advantage of much of the unused TCHP in the northwestern Caribbean to bomb out into a Category 5 hurricane (160 mph), and slammed into the Isle of Youth and western tip of Cuba at that intensity, now accelerating northward due to the influence of another front rolling across the US. Fortunately, the storm was small-cored, but that wasn't much of a silver lining for South Florida, which was lambasted with the Category Three version of Walter (115 mph). After Florida was pounded by yet another major hurricane landfall, Walter rocketed out to sea and weakened, becoming a remnant low three days after the final landfall. Many Floridians were impacted by Walter; dozens lost their lives. It was just another piece to the puzzle of awe that happened to be the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

-----------------------------

...MORE TO COME, Even Hellas isn't left behind this year.. .

cuckoo, cuckooo, what color is the sky in your world?

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

mmmmmmmmmm!!! could be interesting.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 AM EDT SAT APR 17 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CAP
CONVECTION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPING
BELOW THE INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
W/V IMAGERY SHOWS AN U/L TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE TROUGH FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ON STRONG SUBTROPICAL SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. THIS
SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE A TROPICAL CONNECTION INTO THE SYSTEM. THE U/L
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE OVERDONE DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF...COMBINATION OF U/L ENERGY AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WHICH WILL ADVECT OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN TROPICAL
CONNECTION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS U/L TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WITH WEAK U/L SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

I have noticed as the day has gone on. The winds at the volcano in Iceland have changed, but it's still pumping out plenty of ash and gas.

Link

Good Morning.
An incredibly lovely morning here. No smoke, dust, heat, just clear blue sky with puffy cloud and good visibility, birdsong and a feeling that we have had all the rain we are going to get for a while. Got 3/8" over the past 2-3 days.
So I am going to enjoy the moment, have another cup of coffee, and see what happens next.
Being optimistic here........

G'morning all.

Ike, I am really surprised at the wording there. They have increased our pops a little, from 20% to 40%. My local mets are so conservative, I think they live far, far away.

seeing a slight increase in pops further down the peninsula. Nothing to raise an eyebrow over...not yet, anyway.

highest pops I could find for the peninsula, 60% chance of heavy, for Miami on Sunday night.

No consolidation, plenty shear, disorganized mess.

Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
An incredibly lovely morning here. No smoke, dust, heat, just clear blue sky with puffy cloud and good visibility, birdsong and a feeling that we have had all the rain we are going to get for a while. Got 3/8" over the past 2-3 days.
So I am going to enjoy the moment, have another cup of coffee, and see what happens next.
Being optimistic here........

This near you?



Link

Quoting aquak9:
G'morning all.

Ike, I am really surprised at the wording there. They have increased our pops a little, from 20% to 40%. My local mets are so conservative, I think they live far, far away.

seeing a slight increase in pops further down the peninsula. Nothing to raise an eyebrow over...not yet, anyway.

I've now got a 20% chance Monday and Tuesday...30% Monday night.

I'm sure I speak for many- we'll take any rain that doesn't come with a name.

Jacksonville,FL has a chance of rain tomorrow through Wednesday. Maybe you'll get some.

Need some badly here..only .09 since March 26th. Pollen is killing me.

Aussie! I'm sorry, forgive my poor manners. Hello there. I hope you are well this evening, as I sip coffee with the sunrise.

Ike- our pollen has almost gone...but the dryness just enhances it in your area, all those oaks. Live oaks, I'm guessing.

Hey Kmanhurricaneman long time no see what up with you

Quoting aquak9:
Aussie! I'm sorry, forgive my poor manners. Hello there. I hope you are well this evening, as I sip coffee with the sunrise.

Ike- our pollen has almost gone...but the dryness just enhances it in your area, all those oaks. Live oaks, I'm guessing.

Lots of em.

Trying to wait on mowing my yard til it rains and settles the dust.

Quoting aquak9:
Aussie! I'm sorry, forgive my poor manners. Hello there. I hope you are well this evening, as I sip coffee with the sunrise.

Ike- our pollen has almost gone...but the dryness just enhances it in your area, all those oaks. Live oaks, I'm guessing.

Good Evening to you aquak9, doing fine, back isn't as bad as its been the past few days. Might even go for a shower later, haven't been since wednesday, it's almost sunday here, I'm smelling a bit. How's your coffee, I'm having a hot cuppa tea at the moment while watching the soccer from the UK and conversing with my cousin in Scotland via facebook. I'm also watching the live cam from Iceland

You folks in the Caymans...good luck in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Looks active for you.

Good morning from Germany! Planes are still down and will be at Sunday, too. German Chancellor Merkle is still retained in Lisbon, minister of defence (together with dead and wounded german soldiers from Afghanistan) in Istanbul.
But all people, who are not forced to wait at the airports, enjoy very nice, sunny days in Germany, including me.
Webcams to the dragon in iceland (clear sight today) seems to be owercrowed.
But here are some nice video-links (youtube), torn from the eruptions blog

sunset eijaf 16-4-10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-LbDZBf_MM

good morning eijaf 17-4-10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4n6zeVzII

And hey Aussie...


GOM visible...

don't know what kind of tea you're drinking, Aussie, but chamomile does wonders to help one relax. Doesn't do anything about the body odor, tho, hahahah...I say "shower once a week, whether you need it, or not!" :)

ike- I wouldn't be surprised to see hurricanecrab here soon...he's on cayman brac. Paloma tore them up.

loved the youtubes, barbamz. I am impressed.

good morn wunder bloggers

This coffee is good.

63.1 outside my window...partly sunny with fog.

Quoting aquak9:
loved the youtubes, barbamz. I am impressed.

Always at your service, aquak. Thanks.

Quoting IKE:
This coffee is good.

63.1 outside my window...partly sunny with fog.

Now
64.4°F falling
Updated at 22:30 EST

Quoting IKE:
This coffee is good.

63.1 outside my window...partly sunny with fog.

its better than 36 thats what i have this am brrrr colder today and tomorrow warms up again on monday

Good Morning,

Glad to see much needed rain heading to the Cayman Islands.

Quoting barbamz:
Good morning from Germany! Planes are still down and will be at Sunday, too. German Chancellor Merkle is still retained in Lisbon, minister of defence (together with dead and wounded german soldiers from Afghanistan) in Istanbul.
But all people, who are not forced to wait at the airports, enjoy very nice, sunny days in Germany, including me.
Webcams to the dragon in iceland (clear sight today) seems to be owercrowed.
But here are some nice video-links (youtube), torn from the eruptions blog

sunset eijaf 16-4-10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-LbDZBf_MM

good morning eijaf 17-4-10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp4n6zeVzII

Morning from London. There where some pryoclastic flows on this webcam recently.

Link

Quoting aquak9:
don't know what kind of tea you're drinking, Aussie, but chamomile does wonders to help one relax. Doesn't do anything about the body odor, tho, hahahah...I say "shower once a week, whether you need it, or not!" :)

ike- I wouldn't be surprised to see hurricanecrab here soon...he's on cayman brac. Paloma tore them up.

I'm drinking Chinese green tea.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its better than 36 thats what i have this am brrrr colder today and tomorrow warms up again on monday

I won't see 36 for 7-8 months. Everything has bloomed out here.

Looking at the GOM blob, maybe I'll get some needed rain. Take anything.

good morning keeper...you're doing the countdown to my wedding anniversary again, I see. :)

My coffee steamed at your mere mention of 36º. I think I sprouted a few more grey hairs, too.

Got about a laundry basket of lettuce to go pick. Hope my neighbors are in the mood for salad..

ya'll enjoy the day! :)

Quoting CycloneUK:


Morning from London. There where some pryoclastic flows on this webcam recently.

Link

Watching this I suppose we can mothball our european planes for quite a long time ...