Globe has 1st or 2nd warmest March on record; El Niño fades to weak category
The globe recorded its warmest March since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. The March temperature anomaly of 0.77°C (1.39°F) beat the previous record set in 2002 by 0.03°C. The last time the globe had a record warmest month was in January 2007 (according to NOAA) or in November 2009 (according to NASA). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated March 2010 the second warmest March on record, 0.01°C behind the record set in 2002. The year-to-date period, January - March, is the 4th warmest such period on record, according to NOAA, and the warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2010 global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record, while land temperatures were the 4th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in March, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. The March temperature anomaly of 0.66°C was the third highest monthly anomaly on record, behind the 0.76°C anomalies measured in February and April of 1998.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from March 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center.
A warm March for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 32nd warmest March in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. For the third month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. It was Florida's 4th coldest March. No other state had a top-ten coldest March. Rhode Island had its warmest March on record, and thirteen other states had a top-ten warmest March, including all of New England, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Montana.
U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., March 2010 ranked as the 35th driest in the 116-year record. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Montana recorded a top-ten driest March. However, all-time March precipitation records were set in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. New Hampshire and Connecticut each had a top-five wettest March. At the end of March, 2.0% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is the lowest March drought footprint in the U.S. in the past ten years.
Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in April. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. No computer models predict El Niño conditions and six predict La Niña for the upcoming hurricane season (ASO, August-September-October). The rest of the models predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.
El Niño fades from moderate to weak
El Niño slowly weakened during late March and early April, and El Niño conditions crossed the threshold from moderate to weak during the past two weeks. Sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 0.83°C above average on April 11, which is just below the 1.0°C threshold to be considered a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Anomalously strong westerly winds along the Equator that had helped maintain the current El Niño slackened in late March, and winds are now near average over the Equatorial Pacific. It now appears very likely that El Niño will be gone by hurricane season. None of the sixteen El Niño models (updated as of April 15) are predicting El Niño will be around during the height of hurricane season (August-September-October); six are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. The expected demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a well-above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
March sea ice extent in the Arctic 5th lowest on record
March 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 5th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic during much of March 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland, and the Arctic lost less ice this winter compared to the previous few years. The larger amount of multi-year ice could help more ice to survive the summer melt season. However, this replenishment consists primarily of younger, two- to three-year-old multi-year ice; the thickest ice more than three years old has continued to decline.
Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano continues to disrupt European air travel
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupted Wednesday, sending a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The ash cloud continues to cause a dramatic interruption of air traffic over much of northern Europe today, and this disruption will spread southwards and eastwards as the ash cloud gradually spreads and disperses. For the latest forecasts of where the ash cloud is expected to go, consult the UKMET Office. The Norwegian Institute for Air Research runs a computer trajectory model called FLEXPART that has longer, 3-day forecasts. The FLEXPART model shows that ash will continue to be a problem for much of Europe through Tuesday. Spain and Portugal look like the best bet to have airports that will stay open. An excellent source of links of information on the eruption is available at http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/04/eyjafjallajok ul-links-liens-a-propos-de-leyjafjallajokul/. My post on Thursday discusses the likely non-impact of this eruption on Earth's climate.
Figure 3. Forecast extent of the plume from the Iceland volcano with the unpronounceable name. Forecast was made at 17 UTC Saturday, April 17, 2010, and is valid for 12 UTC Tuesday, April 20, 2010. Image credit: Norwegian Institute for Air Research.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Took me six times, but that's how you pronounce it.
Webkameraer i havna
Her er en oversikt over de ulike webkameraene vi har plassert rundt havna. Klikk på et av kameraene for å se bildet i større format.
POLO!!
Medium Resolution Image, Current as of a few minutes ago. Most of the convection associated with the GOM storm is not even over water. Not very impressive!
Graupel!!
Torget i Tromsø sett fra taket på Gjensidigegården. www.itromso.no takker Gjensidige for samarbeidet.
Hey pat, I didn't know you spoke Norwegian. Here is the translation:
Here is a list of the different web camera we have placed around the port. Click on one of cameras to see the picture in large format.
Really great shots. Where did you find these?
This one will be fun to watch, however it's a cold core system, wind shear is 40KTS, parts of the GOM are only in the lower 70's.
But, you can "never say never". Strange things can happen!
Yes it indeed has but conditions have to be very conductive, and im not seeing that in the GOM right now. But give it a couple weeks and I wouldn't be all to surprised if we saw a TC.
GOES SST/SSH images for 4/13/2010
Link
Narvik Live! Webcam Narvik, Norway: View of the Port - including ...
Live Webcam Narvik, Norway (View of the Port) for your Narvik Holidays - including Weather and Hotels.
Since the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is around the corner... I'd like to try prognosticating this year's hurricanes and tropical storms based on their names. I did a similar prediction before the 2009 season with astounding results (per my definition of astounding).
Alex: Alex will be a weak disturbance, as most Alex's frequently are. He will head North-East quickly through Florida as a weak tropical storm, then up the eastern seaboard. Alex's are typically not welcome in Alabama, Miss., Louisiana or Texas... so he will make a bee-line from Florida pan handle to North Carolina.
Bonnie: Bonnie is a fiery hurricane with a mind of her own. She will be early in the season and storm quickly ashore as a Cat-2. Bonnie will rain on everyone's parade in June, likely passing through Miss. and then up through Tennessee. Bonnie won't be remembered for her winds, but for her rain and lasting temper. She will spin up tornadoes in her path.
Colin: Colin will spin up at sea, then die out within a day or so. Nobody wants to put up plywood on their windows with spray paint saying "go away Colin". Besides, nobody wants to stand on a beach somewhere waiting for "colin". It wouldn't look good in newspaper headlines either. Colin will go away quickly, un-noticed.
Danielle: Danielle will be a strong tropical storm, bringing much needed rains north through Alabama and Western Florida. Danielle's are nice typically, so there will be no bluster or damage in her wake.
Earl: Hurricane Earl will be the first serious hurricane threat of the season. He will be a Cat-3 forming near the Northern Antilles. Earl will downgrade to a Cat-2, but not before brushing Hispaniola and ruining several vacations in the Bahamas due to heavy rain and surf. Earl's are tenacious, so he will make landfall 3 times, finally winding up as a tropical storm in Georgia.
Fiona: Fiona will be a Cat-1, Western Gulf. She will want to go into Northern Mexico and bring heavy rains to the Rio Grande and King's Ranch (getting at least 4 cows wet) before moving North to storm over the midwest.
Gaston: Gaston is French, so has to visit New Orleans. Watch for Gaston to form in mid-gulf, then storm ashore as a strong tropical storm around New Iberia, La.
Hermine: Be serious! Hermine? Doesn't look good on a sign, name doesn't scare anyone... so unlike many of the H names, Hermine won't have the right stuff. She will brush Cuba as a strong tropical storm, then be downgraded to tropical depression before making landfall near the Florida keys.
Igor: Strong, tough, easy to spell... Igor has all the hallmarks of a Monster Storm. Watch for Igor to be the first Cat-4 of the season. He will form in the Caribbean, force his way through the channel West of Cuba... then storm into the Alabama - Florida Panhandle area as a Cat-4. Igor will have no mercy, so you'd better have good insurance.
Julia will form in the Atlantic just East of the Bahamas. She will pass just North of the Bahamas as a weak Cat-1, then pass off the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. as a fast moving tropical storm before turning out into the North Atlantic. Julia won't even be a treat to shipping.
Hurricane Karl: Tough name (even misspelled with a K) so you know he came to fight. It's also easy to spell on T-shirts and the name has a certain ring to it... so Karl will be a major hurricane. Not being particularly bright, Karl will wander on an uneven path for a while and bring destruction to Haiti and Eastern Cuba before emerging into the gulf. Karl will regain Cat-3 status as he slowly wanders to Mississippi. He will sit on the Mississippi coast for 2-days before finally moving inland.
Hurricane Lisa will form to the South of Karl, but will keep her distance. Lisa is very predictable and easy to spell... so she has to make landfall. Lisa's are always welcome in Western Texas, so she will head for Victoria Texas as a weak Cat-2.
Matthew: Matthew will NOT look good on T-shirts or plywood, so won't be on either. Matthew has to go through Eastern Florida and then up to Massachusetts, not really being welcome anywhere else. He will be a wimpy tropical storm, but will rain and cry all the way up North.
Hurricane Nicole: Cat-1 strength, Nicole will skirt past the lesser Antilles, then get turned to the North as it will be late in the season. Nicole won't get much notice and won't be much of a threat to anything but tourism in the islands.
Hurricane Otto: Otto is the big one. A late September Cat-5, Otto will roar through the Carribean, brushing Caymen Islands, hitting Cuba hard, then emerging into the Gulf as a Cat-3. Otto will re-form into a Cat-4 and be one of the largest, noisiest hurricanes in recent memory. Nobody in Texas or Louisiana is named Otto... so sorry Alabama, but he's all yours. Otto will storm all the way back out into the Atlantic, emerging still as a strong tropical storm around Martha's Vineyard. He will be known as "Otto the October Hurricane of 2010". Notice.. OTTO, October and 2010 all have two O's in them? Coincidence? I think not.
Paula is the second to last storm of the season. Paula will form in the Southern Caribbean, then move North to rain over Hispaniola as a lingering tropical storm. Paula will cause coastal flooding and mudslides before she moves into the Atlantic.
Richard: The last hurricane of the season, Richard will form far out in the tropical Atlantic, then move toward the lesser Antilles before turning North into the U.S. Virgin Islands. Richard has ambitions, but can't seem to get above a strong Cat-2 in strength. Richard will then move North to vacation in Bermuda before turning into the North Atlantic.
That is my prediction for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season based upon the names of the storms. 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.
:>) I'm good!
Any ideas on next year's Super Bowl?
No east coast Florida landfalls? works for me.
G'nite, WU-Spirits!
Was watching one of the Iceland cams and happened to catch some lightning in the ash cloud. Was cool the two times it lit up bright. Otherwise it's pitch black. Just happened to check it at the right time.
May 22 at 6pm
Still having PC problems, I am using my laptop. Will not let me into WU, but I can get all other websites. Must have been a site. I lost my connection to the Icelandic sites.
Thanks for your help before.
Dolphins 34, Saints 21 (my prediction at least lol), but I think a major hurricane wil hit South Florida.
YW and uh oh to the PC not connecting to sites. Sounds like it may be time to virus scan plus...
IIRC that's one of the signs of a possible infection.
Link
All is quiet, a handful of 5+ Mw quakes and aftershocks from Chile; our friendly Iceland Volcano is wreaking havoc in North and Central Europe; still no rain in the DFW area, but it's close by, about 30 miles to our west, slowly creeping toward us; interesting Hurricane forecast prediction from a fellow blogger; our Bay of Campeche "blob" is looking anemic.
Rain is good for parts of Florida, a matter of fact, I am sure the northern 2/3 of the state would love it.
However, I am not so sure about S FL.
At the moment it is raining very heavily. we need it!
mite need a java update
All day!
Cool. Try running a complete virus scan on your computer, that might help fix your problems.
Patriots vs Cowboys
Cowboys win. Do you want your lottery number now?
Accuweather's landfall
I know, they're calling for about 2" of rain, we'll take it :o)..
Hey, you're talking to a Giants ticket holder!!! lol
Xcool, if Bastardi is right, the Eastern Seaboard is in big trouble, with the possibility of several landfalling hurricanes. NOT a good scenario at ALL..
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