Globe has 1st or 2nd warmest March on record; El Niño fades to weak category

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:20 PM GMT del 16 Aprile 2010

Share this Blog
1
+

The globe recorded its warmest March since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. The March temperature anomaly of 0.77°C (1.39°F) beat the previous record set in 2002 by 0.03°C. The last time the globe had a record warmest month was in January 2007 (according to NOAA) or in November 2009 (according to NASA). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated March 2010 the second warmest March on record, 0.01°C behind the record set in 2002. The year-to-date period, January - March, is the 4th warmest such period on record, according to NOAA, and the warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2010 global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record, while land temperatures were the 4th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in March, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. The March temperature anomaly of 0.66°C was the third highest monthly anomaly on record, behind the 0.76°C anomalies measured in February and April of 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from March 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center.

A warm March for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 32nd warmest March in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. For the third month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. It was Florida's 4th coldest March. No other state had a top-ten coldest March. Rhode Island had its warmest March on record, and thirteen other states had a top-ten warmest March, including all of New England, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Montana.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., March 2010 ranked as the 35th driest in the 116-year record. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Montana recorded a top-ten driest March. However, all-time March precipitation records were set in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. New Hampshire and Connecticut each had a top-five wettest March. At the end of March, 2.0% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is the lowest March drought footprint in the U.S. in the past ten years.


Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in April. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. No computer models predict El Niño conditions and six predict La Niña for the upcoming hurricane season (ASO, August-September-October). The rest of the models predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

El Niño fades from moderate to weak
El Niño slowly weakened during late March and early April, and El Niño conditions crossed the threshold from moderate to weak during the past two weeks. Sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 0.83°C above average on April 11, which is just below the 1.0°C threshold to be considered a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Anomalously strong westerly winds along the Equator that had helped maintain the current El Niño slackened in late March, and winds are now near average over the Equatorial Pacific. It now appears very likely that El Niño will be gone by hurricane season. None of the sixteen El Niño models (updated as of April 15) are predicting El Niño will be around during the height of hurricane season (August-September-October); six are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. The expected demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a well-above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

March sea ice extent in the Arctic 5th lowest on record
March 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 5th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic during much of March 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland, and the Arctic lost less ice this winter compared to the previous few years. The larger amount of multi-year ice could help more ice to survive the summer melt season. However, this replenishment consists primarily of younger, two- to three-year-old multi-year ice; the thickest ice more than three years old has continued to decline.

Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano continues to disrupt European air travel
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupted Wednesday, sending a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The ash cloud continues to cause a dramatic interruption of air traffic over much of northern Europe today, and this disruption will spread southwards and eastwards as the ash cloud gradually spreads and disperses. For the latest forecasts of where the ash cloud is expected to go, consult the UKMET Office. The Norwegian Institute for Air Research runs a computer trajectory model called FLEXPART that has longer, 3-day forecasts. The FLEXPART model shows that ash will continue to be a problem for much of Europe through Tuesday. Spain and Portugal look like the best bet to have airports that will stay open. An excellent source of links of information on the eruption is available at http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/04/eyjafjallajok ul-links-liens-a-propos-de-leyjafjallajokul/. My post on Thursday discusses the likely non-impact of this eruption on Earth's climate.


Figure 3. Forecast extent of the plume from the Iceland volcano with the unpronounceable name. Forecast was made at 17 UTC Saturday, April 17, 2010, and is valid for 12 UTC Tuesday, April 20, 2010. Image credit: Norwegian Institute for Air Research.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 511 - 461

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Normally, an ocean temperature of 26.5C (79.7F) spanning through at least a 50-metre depth is considered the minimum to maintain the special mesocyclone that is the tropical cyclone. These warm waters are needed to maintain the warm core that fuels tropical systems. This value is well above the global average surface temperature of the oceans, which is 16.1 C (60.9 F).[5] Wiki
Thanks, Guys.
So yeah, 80 F. Later. Have a wonderful day.
Decent, easy to read article on cyclogenesis(wiki)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Season's first tropical depression forms

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:43 AM CDT on May 28, 2009


.note the portlight blurb as we did some relief work in Fla,post Storm.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida last week, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Equipment will also be provided to local shelters and other organizations working with flood victims. To help out, visit the Portlight disaster relief blog..
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
80F,is the threshold for Development,but this isnt one to develop as the trailing Spin is aloft and well,its not going to transition to a Surface feature as that Front is going to drop kick all that East,soon.

Plenty of 80 F in the BOC and the Loop Current as well.
In 4 weeks the action will get going proper,as we've had May Systems the last 3 seasons,and last years Memorial Weekend soaker did a lot of Flooding near Daytona.

But it still a very Spring Like pattern with the Westerlies in control aloft.
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Heavy thunder and lightning so I am out for now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
SSTs are still too low to support cyclogenesis.
What is the threshold? 32C?


PSULink

26 C works great in the presence of other favorable parameters. And we saw a couple spin up in a few degrees less in the last couple of years.
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Yeah, I don't think Kmanislander is going anywhere for the time being! I'm off. It's sunny and gorgeous here in ECFl.
Glad to see the Caymans getting much needed H2O. Ta!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
SSTs are still too low to support cyclogenesis.
What is the threshold? 32C?


PSULink


80F generally although temps marginally below that have been known to support tropical cyclones
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


latest still vis cayman island chain

weather coming for ya cayman

We getting hammered with rain right now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SSTs are still too low to support cyclogenesis.
What is the threshold? 32C?


PSULink
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We're completely socked in here now and the rain is coming down hard again. Off to get a few errands in hopefully LOL.

Will check in later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:
Wow, im so sorry I doubted you guys here last night. That blob system starting to look subtropical. And with the midday heat starting to begin there are some additional possibilities for development.


The main convective line is moving toward the Yucatan Peninsular, Cuba and Caymans will get this before its pull away but the cold front sunday.



Link
Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
If any part of the Gulf disturbance were to develop it would probably be the small low near Arrecifes alacranes. Once it moves over the GOMs warmest waters it has a small chance of turning into something. But even that would probably only be a STD, or TD and probably beneficial more so than menacing.
Member Since: Maggio 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Good morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good Morning Kman, what's your 2010 tropical season prediction.


The safe bet is above average and current trends do support that. How much above average will depend on factors not yet confirmed, such as absence of high dust values,average to low shear and the set up of the Bermuda high.

Based on what I see to date and absent some unforeseen major change in forecasted conditions for the height of the season I think 14 named systems and 4 majors could be the numbers. There may also be another 3 depressions that do not make it to a named system.

What really remains to be seen is not so much how many but where they go and for that we will just have to wait and see how the Bermuda high is positioned and whether it bridges back across the SE US like we saw in 2004.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
407: A little window into the calamity that you so enjoy. Do you pull over on the highway to watch someone get cut out of a mangled car? I know you slow wayyyy down so you can get a good look, which is called being a rubberneck, BTW.

No denying that storms will form and hit land. You say you aren't the troll of years past, however, I think some seasoning is still to come. (At least I hope so)

I do believe I'll spare the blog my responses to you for the indefinite future. (via the poof)

yeah, I thought that was going a bit over the top.
Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If you look at this AVN image you will notice that there are two separate areas of concern (well not really of concern).

In the BOC there is the AOI that has the Mid Level Circulation. The Massive rain event over Cuba is separate.




Not much rain in Cuba
Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
No tropical cyclogenesis from the GOM Trough,..as a cold front is going to sweep that mess East come Sunday and Mon.


GMZ089-171530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE E INTO THE SE GULF
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NW CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY AND SUN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA SUN AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MON.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF.


Its only mid April..
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting hurricane23:


No.Upper-level disturbance should track across the Florida straits Saturday evening into Sunday.


Hey "killer," good to see you this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
407: A little window into the calamity that you so enjoy. Do you pull over on the highway to watch someone get cut out of a mangled car? I know you slow wayyyy down so you can get a good look, which is called being a rubberneck, BTW.

No denying that storms will form and hit land. You say you aren't the troll of years past, however, I think some seasoning is still to come. (At least I hope so)

I do believe I'll spare the blog my responses to you for the indefinite future. (via the poof)
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
I THINK SOMETHING IS GOING ON IN THE GULF IN THE NW CORNER OF THE YUCATAN. THIS LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED THAT YESTERDAY.


No.Upper-level disturbance should track across the Florida straits Saturday evening into Sunday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The warming of the Caribbean has been accelerating in the past week as seen below.

This image is a dramatic shift from just a few days ago.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, im so sorry I doubted you guys here last night. That blob system starting to look subtropical. And with the midday heat starting to begin there are some additional possibilities for development.

Member Since: Maggio 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning everyone

You can tell it's the weekend by the weather outside !. Not complaining though as the rain was badly needed and more looks to be on the way. Very black outside on the SW end of Grand Cayman and the rumble of thunder is on the increase.

Pressure is 1010.9 mb and steady which is low for this time of year.

Hard to believe this is April. Looks like July or August outside.
Good Morning Kman, what's your 2010 tropical season prediction.
Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Good news for NOAA on the Indian Scatterometer - wonder if us pee-ons will get to see the data?







From:
MICROWAVE SENSORS–INDIAN SCENARIO 10 MB PDF

Scatterometer: Retrieval and Applications 1.6 MB PDF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

The Ash Plume continues

Eyjafjallajkull fr Hvolsvelli

..morning kman
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Good morning everyone

You can tell it's the weekend by the weather outside !. Not complaining though as the rain was badly needed and more looks to be on the way. Very black outside on the SW end of Grand Cayman and the rumble of thunder is on the increase.

Pressure is 1010.9 mb and steady which is low for this time of year.

Hard to believe this is April. Looks like July or August outside.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting severstorm:

Morning all, I love the duck tape works well for all things needed to be fixed. hey jeff, soooo how much rain for w c fl?


Duct tape works on everything but ducts.

Of course, Red Green will use it on anything. (KOG will know who/what I'm talking about.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Lots of em.

Trying to wait on mowing my yard til it rains and settles the dust.

I gave up and mowed. Very dusty. The kind that turns your...makes it funny colors when you...ahh, nevermind. You know or you don't want to.
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 17 2010


GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A MID LEVEL LOW
SPINNING NEAR 21N89W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION
AT SURFACE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. ALSO...THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG
24N88W 22N86W INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS TROUGH IS
BRINGING MULTIPLE SCATTER MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TO WESTERN
CUBA. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GULF BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1020 MB HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND COASTAL
PLAIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUPPORTING A MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 21N89W. A
TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHWEST BASIN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ALONG 24N88W 22N86W 20N86W 18N86W 16N87W. THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST BASIN NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD AFFECTING
THE CUBA AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 76W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BASIN CONTINUE TO FEED ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING TRADES IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE THIS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting aquak9:


Cm'here, boy. I wanna introduce you to a roll of Duct tape.

Post of the day!

What's that dude saying, anyway? I cannot hear him.
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting IKE:
You folks in the Caymans...good luck in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Looks active for you.
Thanks. Have a feeling we might need it this year. Hope not but only time will tell. Think we might need to say some prayers to help with the luck.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GMZ089-171530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE E INTO THE SE GULF
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NW CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY AND SUN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA SUN AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MON.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF.
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
guys shear is no a problem its 20 kt and also droping
wind shear
Link
shear tend.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys looking at the sat and radar and stations around the area including where I am in west bay this blob is looking like a TD or a STD already well maybe a little bit more convection will make it looke better but any way I have seen TD or STD form under no so good conditions before so if we put in the impossibles what do you think
More rain for Cayman. Hallelujah ! Nothing else (hopefully) but I don't think it will be a problem just yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


zoomed out latest vis image

image centred
23.3n/83.3w
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


latest still vis cayman island chain

weather coming for ya cayman
That is great. The rain we have gotten h as been a help but still caould do with some more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GOM IR Loop



NWS/NHC Gulf of Mexico Offshore Waters Forecast

000
FZNT24 KNHC 170855
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-171530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE E INTO THE SE GULF
AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NW CARIBBEAN SEA LATER TODAY AND SUN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA SUN AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MON.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF.

$$
GMZ080-171530-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING THE FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
430 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT
IN E SWELL.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT.
.MON...NE TO E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.TUE...E TO SE WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT W OF 95W LATE.
SEAS 1 TO 2 FT E OF 95W AND 2 TO 3 W OF 95W.
.WED...W OF 95W SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. E OF 95W
SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

$$
GMZ082-171530-
SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
430 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 22N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5
TO 7 FT IN E SWELL. S OF 22N NW TO N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT
IN NE SWELL.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W OF TROUGH NW TO N WINDS 10 KT. E OF
TROUGH E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT N OF 22N...AND 1 TO 3 FT S
OF 22N.
.MON...N OF 22N NE TO E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. S OF 22N N
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.TUE AND WED...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT NE WINDS 15 KT
NEAR THE COAST OF YUCATAN IN THE EVENINGS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

$$
GMZ084-171530-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
430 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 28N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. FROM 25N TO 28N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT. S OF 25N NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 26N.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N OF 24N N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT. S OF 24N SW TO W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 26N.
.MON AND TUE...N TO NE WINDS 10 KT...BECOMING VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KT
N OF 27N. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT N OF 27N...AND 2 TO 3 FT S OF 27N.
.WED...VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

$$
GMZ086-171530-
E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
430 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...S OF 27N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. N OF 27N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT S PORTION
WINDS BECOMING SW TO W. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT S PORTION 2 TO 4
FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E PART SUN.
.TUE AND WED...S OF 27N N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3
FT. N OF 27N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

$$
FORECASTER DGS
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
If you look at this AVN image you will notice that there are two separate areas of concern (well not really of concern).

In the BOC there is the AOI that has the Mid Level Circulation. The Massive rain event over Cuba is separate.



Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194


latest still vis cayman island chain

weather coming for ya cayman
Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
This mid level low in the Yucatan Peninsula has about a 5% percent chance of becoming something tropical. As a matter a fact this flare up of convection is dislocated from the mid level low, and as futuremet stated it is due to upper level diffluence. If you look below to this 700 MB Vorticity map you will notice that the mid level circulation is over the Yucatan Peninsula.


So chances are this this will just be a rain event for the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and Southern Florida.
Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Futuremet.. good to see you again!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


1 to 2" maybe more we'll see!
ok i saw yesterday you were thinking more. Thanks, can always count on you for my forecast
Member Since: novembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 959
guys looking at the sat and radar and stations around the area including where I am in west bay this blob is looking like a TD or a STD already well maybe a little bit more convection will make it looke better but any way I have seen TD or STD form under no so good conditions before so if we put in the impossibles what do you think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi futuremet, How have you been. Should know you would pop in with something brewing in the gulf.
Member Since: novembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 959
Despite the improvement in overall structure, this system will likely be a hybrid storm. The recent flare up of convection is due to upper level is likely due to upper level diffluence. Wind shear is also too high over the region for tropical cyclogenesis to occur. In fact, the model consensus indicates that this system will transition to a cold core cyclone over time.

06z GFS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


It is going to be a wet and stormy day for the FL Penisula tomorrow.

Morning all, I love the duck tape works well for all things needed to be fixed. hey jeff, soooo how much rain for w c fl?
Member Since: novembre 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 959
463. IKE
...
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
461. IKE
If it were mid-May to June, I agree that the system in the southern GOM would have a shot.
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

Viewing: 511 - 461

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.