Globe has 1st or 2nd warmest March on record; El Niño fades to weak category
The globe recorded its warmest March since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. The March temperature anomaly of 0.77°C (1.39°F) beat the previous record set in 2002 by 0.03°C. The last time the globe had a record warmest month was in January 2007 (according to NOAA) or in November 2009 (according to NASA). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated March 2010 the second warmest March on record, 0.01°C behind the record set in 2002. The year-to-date period, January - March, is the 4th warmest such period on record, according to NOAA, and the warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2010 global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record, while land temperatures were the 4th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in March, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. The March temperature anomaly of 0.66°C was the third highest monthly anomaly on record, behind the 0.76°C anomalies measured in February and April of 1998.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from March 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center.
A warm March for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 32nd warmest March in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. For the third month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. It was Florida's 4th coldest March. No other state had a top-ten coldest March. Rhode Island had its warmest March on record, and thirteen other states had a top-ten warmest March, including all of New England, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Montana.
U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., March 2010 ranked as the 35th driest in the 116-year record. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Montana recorded a top-ten driest March. However, all-time March precipitation records were set in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. New Hampshire and Connecticut each had a top-five wettest March. At the end of March, 2.0% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is the lowest March drought footprint in the U.S. in the past ten years.
Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in April. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. No computer models predict El Niño conditions and six predict La Niña for the upcoming hurricane season (ASO, August-September-October). The rest of the models predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.
El Niño fades from moderate to weak
El Niño slowly weakened during late March and early April, and El Niño conditions crossed the threshold from moderate to weak during the past two weeks. Sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 0.83°C above average on April 11, which is just below the 1.0°C threshold to be considered a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Anomalously strong westerly winds along the Equator that had helped maintain the current El Niño slackened in late March, and winds are now near average over the Equatorial Pacific. It now appears very likely that El Niño will be gone by hurricane season. None of the sixteen El Niño models (updated as of April 15) are predicting El Niño will be around during the height of hurricane season (August-September-October); six are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. The expected demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a well-above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
March sea ice extent in the Arctic 5th lowest on record
March 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 5th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic during much of March 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland, and the Arctic lost less ice this winter compared to the previous few years. The larger amount of multi-year ice could help more ice to survive the summer melt season. However, this replenishment consists primarily of younger, two- to three-year-old multi-year ice; the thickest ice more than three years old has continued to decline.
Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano continues to disrupt European air travel
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupted Wednesday, sending a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The ash cloud continues to cause a dramatic interruption of air traffic over much of northern Europe today, and this disruption will spread southwards and eastwards as the ash cloud gradually spreads and disperses. For the latest forecasts of where the ash cloud is expected to go, consult the UKMET Office. The Norwegian Institute for Air Research runs a computer trajectory model called FLEXPART that has longer, 3-day forecasts. The FLEXPART model shows that ash will continue to be a problem for much of Europe through Tuesday. Spain and Portugal look like the best bet to have airports that will stay open. An excellent source of links of information on the eruption is available at http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/04/eyjafjallajok ul-links-liens-a-propos-de-leyjafjallajokul/. My post on Thursday discusses the likely non-impact of this eruption on Earth's climate.
Figure 3. Forecast extent of the plume from the Iceland volcano with the unpronounceable name. Forecast was made at 17 UTC Saturday, April 17, 2010, and is valid for 12 UTC Tuesday, April 20, 2010. Image credit: Norwegian Institute for Air Research.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Good for you all in Trinidad and Tobago! Hopefully you'll receive more rain over the next few days.
That's what it says here.
Mr.Bordonaro, Your weather is a separate system than what CFL is going to get, is it not?
The stuff that's coming off of Brownsville looks like its heading for the warm loop in the GOM. Do you think it could hook up with the developing storm in the Gulf of Honduras?
Well it looks like i will stay a few days longer. Thanks Ike
Cheers Pottery.....no problems related to the weather and those scorched hills yet I hope.
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
404 AM EDT SUN APR 18 2010
VALID 12Z SUN APR 18 2010 - 12Z TUE APR 20 2010
FLORIDA SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WET WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY AS WELL AND TRACK SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WHICH
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY OVER FLORIDA.
Our system is a hybrid upper level system that has merged with a cold front boundary, producing a surface Low moving very slowly NE ward.
The "Brownsville Blob", will eventually move eastward into the GOM, on the tail end of a weak cold front. It is possible the two pieces of energy may combine, as it is another piece of energy that may bring more rain into the Caribbean region into FL.
Thanks Mr. Bordonaro
Msstormx, I'm from cfl slightly NE of Orlando. We had a great Jan, Feb, March as far as precip was concerned. It was way too cold though. We came into April and somebody turned off the faucet. I have only recorded .11" since the 1st of April
You are welcome :0).The NWS Brownsville, TX Area Forecast Discussion stated there is a weak trough of Low pressure over the Lower Rio Grande Valley that will move eastward and another upper level Low will move over N Mexico into the GOM on Tuesday, probably increasing precip over the GOM.
Wow things are going to get wet!!
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
957 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010
...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MAJOR SEVERITY FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...
NUECES RIVER NEAR THREE RIVERS AFFECTING LIVE OAK...NUECES AND SAN
PATRICIO COUNTIES
ATASCOSA RIVER AT WHITSETT AFFECTING LIVE OAK COUNTY
.RECENT OR ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIVER BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER RISES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RIVER STAGE FORECASTS
ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND PREDICTED RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL
RAINFALL VARIES FROM FORECAST VALUES...FORECAST RIVER STAGES
WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.
FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP. IN THE BLUE MENU SECTION ON THE LEFT OF
THE PAGE...UNDER THE "CURRENT WEATHER" SUBMENU...CLICK
ON "RIVERS/LAKES" WHICH TAKES YOU TO OUR AHPS WEB PAGE.
Good soaking rain up here in Denton, Texas. We needed it badly.
Everything is green.
Dave
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=crp&gage=cbbt2&view=1,1,1,1,1,1
Historical Crests
(1) 28.94 ft on 04/06/2004
(2) 25.45 ft on 10/12/2003
(3) 20.91 ft on 05/26/2007
(4) 18.44 ft on 10/16/2008
(5) 15.53 ft on 07/16/2002
(6) 13.22 ft on 07/02/2002
(7) 12.43 ft on 07/04/2002
Thankfully, this is not a level that floods homes. (At least that is what the description says)
some dark spots on the sun today
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/index.php?region=gulf&channel=lc
Link
What part of Tampa are you at? I'm in Z-hills
The AOI near Florida looking rather impressive on Visible, but barely has any convection on AVN.
Daytime heating will change that! Looks like a squall line , look at the second radar pic on #1077, may develop over the S Central GOM and move towards far S FL.
Key West, keep your eyes open!
SST's to cold. Wind shear too high. No closed low at the surface. Typical April conditions.
Very good, also the trough of Low pressure is a cold-core system, developing at the end of a cold front over N Mexico a few days ago.
Ok, It looks like me and you are in the rain area right now. I have gotten .45 so far.
Some minutes ago. Little glimpse through the clouds. Seems to be more steam than ash today.
In addition to what everyone else said, it is also now moving into a more baroclinic environment than it was yesterday. In other words, the low is now laying within a defined temperature gradient, where it is colder to the north of the low than it is to the south of the low. The fact that the low is now well-removed to the east of the upper trough axis also speaks to the fact that it is not warm-core.
The upper trough is beginning to lift up into the westerlies now, and all chances of subtropical mischief that we were discussing yesterday are over.
The replacement act was stuck in Portland because of flash floods...
I'm enjoying the rain. Only hope it's raining in the catchment areas for the dams.
Link
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
Humor in Comments
18C and clear night sky here in Sydney.
Published: Sunday | April 18, 2010 The Jamaica Gleaner
The Meteorological Service yesterday issued a flash-flood warning for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, St Andrew, Kingston and St Catherine as the clouds finally opened after months of one of the worst droughts in Jamaica's history.
According to the Met Service, weather conditions were being influenced by a trough across the western Caribbean, west of Jamaica.
Satellite imagery indicated cloudy conditions across most parishes Friday night into Saturday, with strongest activity affecting sections of eastern parishes.
The rainfall is expected to last through the weekend as the trough gradually moves towards Jamaica by tomorrow.
More showers today, tomorrow
The Met Service forecast is for periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms across most parishes, with more significant activity for eastern parishes today into tomorrow.
In the meantime, the National Works Agency (NWA) is to report to Cabinet tomorrow on the effects of the heavy rains.
The NWA yesterday announced that it was conducting an assessment of several roadways that were affected by heavy rainfall.
In Portland, a breakaway along a section of the Comfort Castle roadway worsened, while roadways in the Buff Bay Valley were also affected by heavy rainfall.
In St Elizabeth, the roadway from Aberdeen to Quickstep was blocked, but it was reopened yesterday following work with heavy equipment to remove a boulder.
The boulder also damaged a section of the corridor, which has since been temporarily restored.
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