Globe has 1st or 2nd warmest March on record; El Niño fades to weak category
The globe recorded its warmest March since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. The March temperature anomaly of 0.77°C (1.39°F) beat the previous record set in 2002 by 0.03°C. The last time the globe had a record warmest month was in January 2007 (according to NOAA) or in November 2009 (according to NASA). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated March 2010 the second warmest March on record, 0.01°C behind the record set in 2002. The year-to-date period, January - March, is the 4th warmest such period on record, according to NOAA, and the warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2010 global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record, while land temperatures were the 4th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in March, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. The March temperature anomaly of 0.66°C was the third highest monthly anomaly on record, behind the 0.76°C anomalies measured in February and April of 1998.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from March 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center.
A warm March for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 32nd warmest March in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. For the third month in a row, Florida was the coldest state, relative to average. It was Florida's 4th coldest March. No other state had a top-ten coldest March. Rhode Island had its warmest March on record, and thirteen other states had a top-ten warmest March, including all of New England, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Montana.
U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., March 2010 ranked as the 35th driest in the 116-year record. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Montana recorded a top-ten driest March. However, all-time March precipitation records were set in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. New Hampshire and Connecticut each had a top-five wettest March. At the end of March, 2.0% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is the lowest March drought footprint in the U.S. in the past ten years.
Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in April. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. No computer models predict El Niño conditions and six predict La Niña for the upcoming hurricane season (ASO, August-September-October). The rest of the models predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.
El Niño fades from moderate to weak
El Niño slowly weakened during late March and early April, and El Niño conditions crossed the threshold from moderate to weak during the past two weeks. Sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 0.83°C above average on April 11, which is just below the 1.0°C threshold to be considered a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Anomalously strong westerly winds along the Equator that had helped maintain the current El Niño slackened in late March, and winds are now near average over the Equatorial Pacific. It now appears very likely that El Niño will be gone by hurricane season. None of the sixteen El Niño models (updated as of April 15) are predicting El Niño will be around during the height of hurricane season (August-September-October); six are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. The expected demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a well-above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
March sea ice extent in the Arctic 5th lowest on record
March 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 5th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic during much of March 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland, and the Arctic lost less ice this winter compared to the previous few years. The larger amount of multi-year ice could help more ice to survive the summer melt season. However, this replenishment consists primarily of younger, two- to three-year-old multi-year ice; the thickest ice more than three years old has continued to decline.
Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano continues to disrupt European air travel
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupted Wednesday, sending a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The ash cloud continues to cause a dramatic interruption of air traffic over much of northern Europe today, and this disruption will spread southwards and eastwards as the ash cloud gradually spreads and disperses. For the latest forecasts of where the ash cloud is expected to go, consult the UKMET Office. The Norwegian Institute for Air Research runs a computer trajectory model called FLEXPART that has longer, 3-day forecasts. The FLEXPART model shows that ash will continue to be a problem for much of Europe through Tuesday. Spain and Portugal look like the best bet to have airports that will stay open. An excellent source of links of information on the eruption is available at http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/04/eyjafjallajok ul-links-liens-a-propos-de-leyjafjallajokul/. My post on Thursday discusses the likely non-impact of this eruption on Earth's climate.
Figure 3. Forecast extent of the plume from the Iceland volcano with the unpronounceable name. Forecast was made at 17 UTC Saturday, April 17, 2010, and is valid for 12 UTC Tuesday, April 20, 2010. Image credit: Norwegian Institute for Air Research.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1043 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 911 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 857 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 839 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2010
the "experts" almost always an above average year. No one knows..
It's not going high enough into the stratosphere, once it gets into the Stratosphere, then it will start making a difference. It will take an eruption like Pinatubo to make any difference. Particles from the eruption entered the Earth's stratosphere resulting in a 10% reduction in sunlight reaching the Earth's surface, and a 0.4°C drop in global average temperatures. Even if it did get in the stratosphere the winds tend to flow out from the equator to the poles, So if you get a big eruption in the tropics the winds in the stratosphere will tend to spread out material over the whole globe.Whereas if it happens in the polar regions the stuff tends to get stuck, it doesn't spread down to lower latitudes.
WEBcam of the plume and foreground..
Peaks past -2
ok these links work perfectly. i don't know what is going on. thanks bord.
The signs we're are seeing are the polar opposite of April 2009.
You're right Aussie, the majority of the ash/sulfur dioxide will be stuck in the N latitudes and not do much more than that.
The eruption isn't large enough, at least at the present, to shoot anything into the stratosphere. The highest plume was only 36,000 ft.
They are sometimes slow to load, people all over the world are trying to access this, slowing down their server.
...BEGINNING ROUGHLY DAY 6 /THU. APR. 22/. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR A N-S TROUGH/DRYLINE...AND WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY FAVORABLE FLOW FIELD WITH HEIGHT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...
thanks for looking.
it look as though the winds have changed and it's drifting east now.
A recent article from the Times Online in the UK, link below. Needless to say, European air space is essentially shut down in many area:
Link
Edited: sorry, link doesn't work regularily.
Edited: Another one from Jon Vidar / flickr.com
link
(not sure about the copyright)
Thats much better. Thanks.
The only thing I think will happen it will either do one of two things.
One, Cause a decrease in melt to the north pole as there wont be as much sunlight getting through.
Two, Cause the increase of melt in the north pole due to the ash colouring the ice and and the ice soaking up more heat, hence melting. But these scenarios will only happen if the Volcano continues to erupt and erupt for weeks to months to come.
believe me bord i feel for those stranded especially those with small kids. the airlines are dealing with something they have not had to deal with before. the are having to string the stranded people along, every time i see the news it's another 24 hours. my friend is doing a tour over egypt and she called me yesterday upset that some of her people were stranded.
Icelandic Ice Cap Thaw May Trigger It's Dormant Volcanoes
This is the one I posted last night. Not sure if it's the one you're talking about. It's real busy right now, tough to get in.
http://www.flightradar24.com/
That's not the one I was looking for, but it is plenty good enough, thanks Dan!
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
NEXRAD Radar
Oklahoma City, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Midwest Centered Goes IR
Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day
Av.SOI Av.SOI
----------------------------------------------------------------
19-Mar-2010 1011.96 1009.50 -7.90 -9.02 -12.98
20-Mar-2010 1010.44 1009.20 -13.74 -9.31 -12.81
21-Mar-2010 1010.10 1008.70 -12.97 -9.49 -12.64
22-Mar-2010 1010.29 1008.00 -8.71 -9.53 -12.49
23-Mar-2010 1011.07 1007.30 -1.63 -9.61 -12.24
24-Mar-2010 1012.51 1006.90 7.18 -9.64 -11.98
25-Mar-2010 1012.54 1007.45 4.69 -9.72 -11.83
26-Mar-2010 1011.81 1007.30 1.91 -10.00 -11.81
27-Mar-2010 1010.11 1006.80 -3.83 -10.57 -11.92
28-Mar-2010 1009.89 1006.40 -2.97 -11.03 -12.13
29-Mar-2010 1011.51 1006.20 5.74 -11.52 -12.23
30-Mar-2010 1012.15 1006.40 7.85 -11.41 -12.17
31-Mar-2010 1011.69 1005.95 7.80 -10.93 -12.23
1-Apr-2010 1011.05 1006.55 15.21 -10.01 -12.19
2-Apr-2010 1012.24 1006.65 23.07 -8.39 -12.03
3-Apr-2010 1013.20 1007.65 22.78 -6.87 -11.83
4-Apr-2010 1013.58 1007.60 25.88 -4.83 -11.70
5-Apr-2010 1013.01 1006.85 27.18 -2.82 -11.52
6-Apr-2010 1013.40 1007.05 28.55 -1.10 -11.17
7-Apr-2010 1013.93 1008.40 22.64 0.17 -10.85
8-Apr-2010 1013.90 1009.80 12.33 1.07 -10.60
9-Apr-2010 1012.91 1009.70 5.91 1.82 -10.28
10-Apr-2010 1012.81 1008.40 14.56 3.17 -9.74
11-Apr-2010 1012.41 1008.30 12.40 4.57 -9.30
12-Apr-2010 1013.79 1008.70 19.47 6.04 -9.03
13-Apr-2010 1013.79 1009.25 15.50 6.97 -8.83
14-Apr-2010 1013.09 1009.95 5.41 7.32 -8.70
15-Apr-2010 1012.51 1010.05 0.50 7.43 -8.66
16-Apr-2010 1012.50 1009.65 3.32 7.63 -8.61
17-Apr-2010 1013.04 1009.10 11.17 8.31 -8.48
Visible in image is the Oklahoma/Texas Flood event and GOM storm.
I concur with your assessment, very slight <5% chance. I just don't feel the SSTs in the Gulf can support a tropical system.
90L?
??
The southern third can support subtropical development. The SST threshold for subtropical systems is only 23C.
Any chance it could get into the loop current?
No not yet...it's making an attempt but like I said yesterday the only way we're going to see anything is if it stays under the axis of the trough, and right now it's still to the east of the axis, putting 30 knots of shear over it.
The piece of energy NW of the Yucatan could track over that area yes, but by that time, after 36 hours, the upper trough is going to be starting to lift out and flatten, which will take away any chance the system has of maturing into anything notable, and the chances it has now are already slim to begin with.
We're wondering if my sister will be able to fly home to England from Florida a week from today.
As the world turns...
Looked like the MJO was up in the Atlantic basin.
Yeah it will be interesting to watch over the next 24-36 hours before the upper trough flattens out. At least it's giving the NW Caribbean some much-needed rainfall.
Glad they found a way back. It's a more fun way to see the countryside anyway. An unexpected adventure.
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