Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupts
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupted Wednesday, sending a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The ash cloud has caused a dramatic interruption of air traffic over much of northern Europe today, and this disruption will spread southwards and eastwards over the next day as the ash cloud gradually spreads and disperses (Figure 2.)
Figure 1. Ash plume from Eyjafjallajokull Volcano over the North Atlantic at 11:35 UTC April 15, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Forecast extent of the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland at 12 UTC (8 am EDT) and 00 UTC tonight (8 pm EDT.) The red colors show the extent between the surface and 20,000', the green colors between 20,000 - 35,000', and the blue line between 35,000 - 55,000'. Commercial jetliners typically cruise at 35,000'. Image credit: UKMET Office.
Iceland volcano not likely to significantly affect the climate or weather
Volcanic eruptions are capable of significantly cooling the climate for 1 - 2 years after a major eruption spews sulfur dioxide gas forcefully enough so that it reaches the stratosphere. Once in the stratosphere, the gas reacts to form highly reflective sulfuric acid droplets mixed with water (sulfate aerosol particles). Our volcanoes and climate page covers the topic in more detail. Let's examine recent volcanic eruptions that have had a significant cooling effect on the climate. In the past 200 years, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (June 1991), El Chichon (Mexico, 1982), Mt. Agung (Indonesia, 1963), Santa Maria (Guatemala, 1902) Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883), and Tambora (1815) all created noticeable cooling. The Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichon eruptions caused a greater than 10% drop in sunlight reaching the surface. The eruption of Tambora in 1815 had an even greater impact, triggering the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. You'll notice from the list of eruptions above that all of these climate-cooling events were from volcanoes in the tropics. Above the tropics, the stratosphere's circulation features rising air, which pulls the sulfur-containing volcanic aerosols high into the stratosphere. Upper-level winds in the stratosphere tend to flow from the Equator to the poles, so sulfur aerosols from equatorial eruptions get spread out over both hemispheres. These aerosol particles take a year or two to settle back down to earth, since there is no rain in the stratosphere to help remove them. However, if a major volcanic eruption occurs in the mid-latitudes or polar regions, the circulation of the stratosphere in those regions generally features pole-ward-flowing, sinking air, and the volcanic aerosol particles are not able to penetrate high in the stratosphere or get spread out around the entire globe.
There have been at least two exceptions to the tropics-only rule. Realclimate.org discusses the eruption of the Laki volcano in Iceland, between 1783-1784. The eruption was probably not able to inject much sulfur into the stratosphere. However, since the eruption was sustained for so long, significantly elevated sulfur concentrations were seen in the lower atmosphere over much of the Atlantic and European regions, which had a pronounced cooling effect on the region.
scienceblog.com has an interesting article about the largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century--the 1912 eruption of Alaska's Mt. Novarupta, located in the same chain of volcanoes as Mt. Redoubt. According to a NASA computer model, Novarupta's climate-cooling aerosols stayed north of 30°N latitude, and did not cause global cooling. However, the model indicates that the eruption may have indirectly weakened India's summer monsoon, producing an abnormally warm and dry summer over northern India.
It does not appear that the current eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland was large enough to alter the atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere and cause a change in the late spring/early summer weather patterns. A series of several major eruptions over the next few weeks would be required for that to happen. The volcano is also too far north for the cooling effect of its ash cloud to affect the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the coming hurricane season. However, the ash could should bring spectacular sunsets to Europe over the next week, and to North America by sometime next week, as the jet stream wraps the ash cloud eastwards across the Northern Hemisphere.
Portlight aid ship nears Haiti
Portlight.org continues to work hard to get food and medical supplies into the earthquake zone in Haiti. Their latest effort is a shipment of 30,000 pounds of rice and 20,000 pounds of other supplies, mostly medical equipment, that has been loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew. The schooner is expected to land in Haiti today to deliver the supplies. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.
Figure 2. Relief supplies for Haiti earthquake victims being loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew.
Paul Timmons (Presslord) and Pat Pearson (Patrap) of Portlight will on the Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour Link. The hosts are wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche. The show airs today, Thursday, April 15, at 4pm Eastern.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thanks for the update
Aussie, that quake is probably due to oil/natural gas drilling. The quake was probably weakly felt in a nearby area.
Must be a DEEP hole..
Can drilling for oil cause earthquakes?
In: Earthquakes [Edit categories]
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While disagreement abounds on this topic, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) say that oil production can cause earthquakes, but not the kind reported in the news.
According to the Rigorous Intuition, some earthquakes, such as the 2004 quake that triggered a deadly tsunami in Sumatra, occur at plate boundaries where hard, rocky slabs slide against each other to release tremendous amounts of energy. Oil generally is found in permeable sediments that are soft and squishy, not in hard rock. When this squishy land moves, it releases a small amount of energy, which can lead to a "mini-seismic event"-one that is barely detected on the Richter scale.
Here's how it works: With high-tech equipment, oil companies pinpoint oil-rich areas and use large drills to puncture the surface below the sea, sometimes as deep as 10,000 feet. As this pricey fluid gets sucked from the sediment pores, the surrounding rocks shift positions to fill in the newly vacated spaces. At a large scale, for example the volume displaced when millions of barrels of oil are produced, the land movement can actually cause a mini-seismic earthquake, according to Robert Morton, a USGS coastal geologist.
I have many relatives in the UK and I have asked of they have had any affects there, as in sky colour.
Thanks Patrap. Can you post a satellite map of the GOM.
It should come right over me in the next few days
ESL by LSU
I mentioned on the blog last night how to pronounce it. It is roughly pronounced AYU fee yapla yerkull. The pronunciation is nothing like the way it is spelled. I have been there and that is how the locals refer to it, but with a little lilt at the end.
The ULL in the GOM looks a bit weaker than yesterday. Also wind shear is tearing it up pretty good also!
Whats that in the middle of the GOMEX?
Reply from my cousin in Cumnock Scotland.
Hi cuz, not seen any ash as its high up they say,only search an rescue to fly and only up to 5000 ft. sky's closed till 6am Friday at earliest
Station 42056 (LLNR 110) - Yucatan Basin 42056 as of
(8:50 am CDT)
1350 GMT on 04/15/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 8.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 86 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.95 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.05 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 72.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 84.4 °F
And whether extra absorbtion of sunlight by the surface will cause greater melting over this summer and the next?
Or will the extra reflectivity while the pollutants remain in the air cause sufficient cooling to increase the ice pack enough that this summer's sea ice extent minimum will be above the post2000 average?
www.princessdlyn.blogspot.com
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010
$$
GMZ084-151530-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
430 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...S OF 28N E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. N OF 28N E TO
SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S OF 26N E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO
15 TO 20 KT FRI NIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 9 FT
FRI NIGHT. N OF 26N E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10
TO 15 KT FRI NIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...N OF 28N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. FROM
25N TO 28N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF 25N
NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT S OF 25N AND 2 TO 4
FT N OF 25N.
.MON...N TO NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
Link
Grothar.. I saw your translations from last night.. how the hell do you tell if a word is misspelled??? : )
Aussie, I hope you are feeling better today mate!
Image LInk HPC 3-Day Surf Prog
I am not feeling any better today, I was at physio today and diagnosis is not great, strained back muscles in the area of my ribs to my spine on my right side. It hurts to do anything, even to breath.
Thanks for you continued concern.
Good very early morning to you.
I am wondering the same thing as Spectre. (#23)
It looks like the immediate ash will blow over ice in Scandinavia and the Baltic. Sea Ice there looked above average monthly levels when last I looked. We will need to find out how much ash is actually falling out of the plume and possibly what size. Does the Ice Center blog about such events?
They ask the same about English, e.g.
hiccough - pronounced hiccup
rough - ruff
through - throo
though - tho
tough - tuff
bough - bow
bought -bought
English is by far the most difficult language to learn, speak and spell.
Welcome.....Several factors to consider, and others on here more qualified than me to address them all, but the main thrust of the issue is what the water temps will be in the MDR between Africa and the Caribbean during the heart of the season and the current anomoly of the warmest March temps in recent history....I suppose there is a "cap" as to hot the waters can get but the generally accepted threshold for this particular factor and cyclogenisis is abound 80 degrees.....Point is, June may not be any hotter than the ultimate temps in August; the issue is when the overall temps will reach the 80 degree mark during hurricane season/summer months, and then, start to cool down again in September and October........
HAVE A NICE DAY!!
What's up? Grothar has not said or done anything wrong. He is my friend, he is intelligent, can speak and write several different languages, and shares good things on the blog.
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