The extremely wet and windy Nor'easter that plowed across the northern tier of states has left moderate to major flooding in its wake over both the Midwest and Northeast. In the Northeast, the storm dropped more than five inches of rain in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, and moderate to major flooding is occurring in these states. Flooding was particularly severe in Rhode Island on the Pawtuxet River in Cranston, where the river crested a record six feet over flood stage, forcing evacuations. Major flooding was also occurring in New Jersey, where the Passaic River at Little Falls is cresting at five feet over flood stage.
In the Midwest, snow melt and heavy rains have swollen the Red River in North Dakota and Minnesota to near flood stage, and the river is expected to crest two feet above major flood stage by Sunday morning, and one foot above one of the permanent dikes on the river. In Fargo, ND, the Red River is expected to crest Saturday at 38 feet, three feet below the record of 41 feet set last year. Many rivers in Iowa are in flood and expected to crest above major flood stage on Thursday or Friday this week, including the Des Moines River in northern Iowa. In Des Moines, flooding on the Des Moines River is expected to be moderate, but a levee that failed in the floods of 1993 and 2008 is leaking, and residents of the area are evacuating, according to media reports.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation for the seven day period ending at 8am EDT Monday March 15, 2010. Image credit: NOAA.
Tropical Cyclone Tomas roars through Fiji Islands
Tropical Cyclone Tomas roared through the eastern portion of the Fiji Islands as a major Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds yesterday. Tomas sideswiped the two largest islands in the chain, destroying 50 buildings, causing extensive power outages, and claiming one life. The cyclone made a direct hit on several of the smaller islands to the east of the main islands, and the extent of damage on these islands is unknown, but undoubtedly very heavy.
Tropical Cyclone Ului weakens, may threaten Australia
The first Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year, Tropical Cyclone Uliu, has weakened from its impressive peak as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds to a low-end Category 4 storm with 132 mph winds. Ului is over the open waters of the South Pacific, east of Australia, and is projected to significantly decay as the week progresses, due to high wind shear. Ului may be a threat to the Queensland coast of Australia by the end of the week, but should be at tropical storm strength by then.
Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Ului (left) and Tropical Cyclone Tomas (right). Over the Solomon Islands, Tropical Cyclone Ului had maximum sustained winds of 130 knots (240 kilometers per hour, 150 miles per hour) and gusts up to 160 knots (300 km/hr, 180 mph). Over Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Tomas had maximum sustained winds of 115 knots (215 km/hr, 132 mph) and gusts up to 140 knots (260 km/hr, 160 mph). The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites captured both storms in multiple passes over the South Pacific on March 15, 2010, local time. The majority of the image is from the morning of March 15 (late March 14, UTC time) as seen by MODIS on the Terra satellite, with the right portion of the image having been acquired earliest. The wedge-shaped area right of center is from Aqua MODIS, and it was taken in the early afternoon of March 15 (local time). Image credit: NASA.
Portlight looks to build permanent shelters in Haiti
On February 26th, torrential rains brought more than five feet (1.5 m) of flood water into the streets in the coastal city of Les Cayes, Haiti, an area unscathed by the massive January 2010 earthquake. Eleven people were killed during this storm, with the rainy season still two months away. This deadly flood serves as a reminder that the people of Haiti are highly vulnerable to disastrous flooding during this year's rainy season. A vast number of the survivors are living in "tent" cities where most of the "tents" are really nothing more than bed sheets draped over ropes and sticks; the potential for a second humanitarian disaster is significant. With this in mind, Portlight.org has been exploring fast, inexpensive methods of providing solid, permanent, safe shelter for survivors of the earthquake. They have found a number of groups looking at using shipping containers for this purpose. Shipping containers are steel-reinforced boxes used for shipping goods overseas. Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, Richard Lumarque, has identified an engineer that has come up with a number of designs for converting these containers into dormitories, offices, medical facilities and individual homes; his plan for a dormitory container is below. Portlight is looking to help with this effort; please visit the Portlight.org web site to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.
Figure 3. A proposed design for a simple dormitory that can accommodate twelve people, built from a shipping container.
I'll have a new post on Wednesday or Thursday.
Jeff Masters
2010 NorEaster Flood in Manville, NJ
Small bridge in Haddonfield flooded at Cooper River along Kings Highway on 3/13/10
Lower Berkshire Valley Rd.
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Is taking up an hour and valuable blog space really necessary for your "lists"
Ok then good to know lol
Cyclone tipped to cross Qld coast on weekend
The weather bureau says Tropical Cyclone Ului could cross the coast of Queensland by the weekend.
The category four tropical cyclone is about 1,200 kilometres north-east of Mackay in north Queensland and 1,400 kilometres east of Cooktown in the state's far north.
Bureau spokesman Mike Marrinan says modelling is showing Ului will make landfall in central Queensland, possibly as a category three or four system.
"It will be accompanied by extreme sort of winds and rainfall,' he said.
"If that's the case, destructive-type winds causing flooding as well.
"There's likely that we will see, by this time tomorrow, some sort of a watch for a particular part of the coast - somewhere between Gladstone and about Bowen, but exactly where that's unsure at this stage."
In Rockhampton, the local disaster management committee is meeting this morning to discuss cyclone preparations.
Rockhampton Mayor Brad Carter says early planning is essential.
"One of the things we need to consider is when and if we need to activate a local disaster control centre and that's where we need to monitor the situation," he said.
"We have phone lines, we have staff manning it - we have to look at how we repair our roads, close our roads, how we might need to evacuate communities etc."
Weather bureau spokesman Ben Annells says there is a chance the cyclone could reintensify into a category five over the next day or so.
"It's likely to be more like a category three, but I think be prepared for a severe tropical cyclone at this stage."
He says it is difficult to know what the system will do and when it will cross the coast.
"It could be as early as late Saturday night - that's the earliest model," he said.
"The latest model is somewhere around Tuesday, so basically that's the spread in time.
"As far as what section of the coast, there's still a spread anywhere from the north tropical coast to no further south than the St Lawrence area.
"Basically our consensus track is for the cyclone to approach Queensland coast - particularly the central Qld coast during the weekend.
"At this stage it looks [like it could] cross the coast around the southern tropical coast or central Queensland coast area."
- ABC
This is the thing that stopped me from painting my pool. aaarrrrgggghhhhh
Was supposed to be nice all week, although a little windy, which stops me too (blowing leaves). I may never get it done. :(
Disaster management officials in Fiji say they have received reports of several deaths in the powerful category four cyclone that has battered the island nation for four days.
The deaths are believed to have occurred in the Lau group of islands, but police say they will not be able to confirm them until communications are restored.
At least 50 homes, as well as hospitals and other public buildings, have been destroyed by Cyclone Tomas and 17,000 people have been evacuated to more than 200 shelters.
Fiji's interim government has declared a state of disaster and New Zealand has announced it is sending an air force Hercules to assist in relief efforts.
The cyclone has been downgraded to a category three storm.
Winds of up to 250 kilometres per hour have ripped roofs off houses.
Tomas moved first through the northern division and is currently affecting the smaller low-lying islands in the east.
Sai Matanatabu, a hotel worker in Suva, says it was the biggest cyclone she has lived through.
"The Cyclone Tomas now we could feel is a bit stronger than what we have experienced before," she said.
But Suva is located on the south-east edge of the main island, Viti Levu. Some of Ms Matanatabu's colleagues have relatives on the island of Taveuni in the north, which was one of the first and hardest hit areas.
"What they could feel is strong winds. And even their neighbours, they could see their rooftop. It blew off from what they've seen. Even some of the electrical appliances as well like their washing machine," she said.
That has been the story across most of the northern group of islands.
However Anthony Blake, a relief coordinator with Fiji's disaster management organisation, DISMAC, says the centre of the cyclone is now strongest in the east.
"In the northern division, what we get is roofs blown off, houses flattened, trees being broken," he said.
"In the eastern division in the Lau Group, we've got unconfirmed reports where whole villages have had roofs blown off and people are taking shelter in caves.
"For the people in Lau it's definitely not over and it will not be over for eight to 12 hours. However for the northern division, they are breathing a sigh of relief as the winds are now dropping.
"We should have a better situation overnight and into (Wednesday) and we are hoping for fine weather so that people can get out and pick up the pieces, as well as our assessment teams getting out to as many places as possible."
Senior forecaster at Fiji's bureau of meteorology, Matt Boterhoven, says the strength of the winds would have created a massive roar.
"I think a few observations have managed to get through. Some places have had close to 300 millimetres (of rain) in 24 hours," he said.
"A lot of storm tide of seven metres has been affecting a lot of these islands and a few people have been evacuated from coastal areas.
"There would have been significant flooding, flooding in low-lying coastal areas and flooding in Labasa in the northern islands. Fifty people had to be evacuated due to rising river levels."
Damage to telecommunications has meant information about conditions on the ground in affected areas is patchy.
UNICEF spokesman Tim Sutton says hospitals are having to move patients within their grounds due to winds ripping off roofs.
"Several hospitals had lost their roofs. They were moving patients around from ward to ward to keep them safe," he said.
"A number of schools have been damaged and we have something like 90 schools now serving as evacuation centres.
"And so it's going to be a considerable disruption to schooling even once the cyclone has passed because it will take a while to get people out of the schools."
Mr Sutton says there is likely to be around 130,000 people affected by the cyclone and even when the worst of the cyclone is over, there will still be dangers.
"The Lau group are the islands to the east of Fiji. They're very low lying, very, very vulnerable to this type of event," he said.
"Mainly village areas, small towns, a lot of farming. We know there's been a lot of damage to food crops. It's not a built-up area like Suva or Nadi. It's small towns and villages.
"Fiji has been suffering from an outbreak of typhoid for the last month or so, so with people congregating in evacuation centres there is the potential for that also to explode.
"And I know the minister of health has been very active in getting messages out to people in the evacuation centres to practice good hygiene, boil water, because there is a huge risk that by concentrating people in these cramped conditions we could also have an explosion of typhoid."
- ABC
;)
Despite uncertainty in Tropical Cyclone Ului's future movement, one likely outcome will be dangerous surf on Queensland's east coast.
This is due to the fact that Ului will have spent about a week out in the Coral Sea, most of it in a very intense state.
Ului, still about 1300km northeast of Mackay, is showing signs of its severe category four status with a clearly visible eye, "winking" arrogantly.
He is already sending a pulse of large waves and swell (greater than seven metres) in all directions. During the next few days this pulse will head closer to Queensland as Ului slowly approaches.
By this weekend there's a very good chance waves and swells will be noticeably larger on the southeast coast, possibly becoming dangerously high, leading to beach erosion and closures.
On the Sunshine and Gold coasts swell should peak higher than eight feet in the surf zone.
The cyclone's exact future track is in doubt but with an increased chance some southwest movement this also means windier and wetter weather for southeast Queensland. If Ului gets close enough gales and heavy rain will affect the region.
For the tropical north this means drier, warmer southwesterly winds.
- Weatherzone
4-hour old microwave satellite pass shows the eyewall attempting to close off on the east side, but it will take some more time to beef that up into a solid, sustained ring of deep convection all the way around:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 157.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING IN TOWARDS AN IRREGULAR
AND CLOUD-FILLED 20 NM EYE. RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A 110 KNOT SYSTEM, IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTH (TOWARDS A TROUGH-INDUCED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE) IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TC. THIS WILL ALLOW ULUI TO TURN WEST TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING FORCE. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF 20S. PRIOR TO THAT THE
INTENSITY SHOULD HOVER AROUND 100 KNOTS WITH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAINING FAIRLY CONSTANT. THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS 2
RUNS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.
Last ride - Final fuel tank for shuttle Atlantis arrives at Florida launch site.
The external fuel tank for space shuttle Atlantis' final flight arrived at the Kennedy Space Center on Monday to begin preparations for launch in May.
The bullet-shaped tank was manufactured at Lockheed Martin's Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans, then loaded into an enclosed barge for the trek to Florida.
The 900-mile journey began the night of February 24 with the shuttle solid rocket booster retrieval ship Liberty Star towing the barge, which is named Pegasus.
After docking in the turn basin near the KSC press site, the tank was offloaded and driven to the Vehicle Assembly Building.
The tank will be hoisted into a checkout cell within the massive 52-story VAB for a few weeks of hands-on work. Mating of the tank to the twin solid rocket boosters is targeted for March 29.
Atlantis is undergoing pre-flight preps at its hangar adjacent from the assembly building. The orbiter is slated to move into the VAB on April 13 for attachment to the tank and boosters atop a mobile launching platform, then roll to pad 39A on April 20.
The shuttle will launch a Russian-made docking module to the International Space Station during its 32nd and last mission. Liftoff is targeted for May 14 at about 3 p.m. EDT
It will be an interesting season, with all the different personalities out there :o)!!
keeping in mind it is already Wednesday in Australia of course
FAULTY PRIUS TAKES AREA MAN TO WHOLE FOODS
http://www.hammondactionnews.com/post/439558234/faulty-prius-takes-area-man-to-whole-foods
Just found this satirical newspaper...the Onion, but for Hammond, LA. Someone has a little imagination...
Its good stuff,but a TAD pricey
162100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 177.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 161637Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TC TOMAS HAS INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS RE-ESTABLISHED A
PARTIAL EYEWALL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO HAVE COME UP TO 115 KNOTS. TC TOMAS HAS
INTENSIFIED DUE TO AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST CAUSED BY A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC TOMAS IS SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE JETSTREAM, TRACKS OVER
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STARTS TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 170900Z.
Yeah, been to yours, once, actually, for a lunch break when at a meeting at the Corps office. On Magazine, right?
You *can* get a decent lunch for ~6 bucks...
Not much else there fits my budget, though.
Yeah,dat be da one, on Magazine.
They sell aged Choice and Prime now,..so when I feel Cave man Like,..I usually spring for them.
But thats a "Rare" event..LOL
Yikes!
10. Do I have to respond to the 2010 Census?
Yes, your participation in the 2010 Census is vital and required by law. Title 13 section 221 of the United States Code requires your response. Title 13 also requires that the Census Bureau keep respondents’ answers confidential and uses them only for tabulations that do not reveal any personal data about individuals or households.
11. What happens if I don’t respond?
Although the law makes it a crime not to answer the decennial census, the American Community Survey and other mandatory censuses, and authorizes the courts to impose a fine of up to $5,000 for failure to respond, the Census Bureau views this approach as a last resort. Rather than emphasizing or seeking the imposition of penalties, we encourage response by explaining
the importance of the questions we ask and how the information benefits
the community.
12. Can I get paid to complete this form?
No, your participation is required by law.
Atlantis was the first space shuttle that I saw go up.. I will miss her as well as Discovery and Endeavour.
its 10am here in Sydney
Good question. how would everyone here list themselves?
First, this is an entertainment blog. If a storm threatens an area, one should listen to their local authorities. I and I myself is responsible for the safety of my family. That being said, yes...this blog is important. It provides valuable information on preparedness and what may or may not happen. And yes, some bloggers opinions carry more weight than others. But to make a list, appears to me you have too much time on your hands.
Now that thar is funny!
That is from this past Saturday (3/13/10). As of now the loop current in the Gulf looks pretty vigorous in its form, in addition to being .5-1 degree above normal. We'll be able to tell how the loop current will come into play once the rest of the Gulf heats up in the Spring. Hopefully it doesnt get too warm over the coming months.
Plywood? Bah!
I've had my Cane shutters for 3 seasons now.
meh, they'll end up falling under another one of the above categories anyway... (usually down, west or fish). If you can have "modelcaster" you can also have "modelbasher" (the UKMET is out to lunch, the GFS stands for "Good for S***", the CMC stands for "Can't Model Crap", etc...).
Basically -
wishcaster - apocalyps, JFV, stormtop/kat/no, many others
downcaster - eye, leftovers, weatherblog, many other names I can't recall
fishcaster - eye, leftovers, WPB, weatherblog, others...
westcaster - TampaSpin, apocalyps, JFV, Tazmanian, nash28 (some are good users), others.
floridacaster - JFV, apocalyps
alts - STORMT0P, STROMTOP, STORMTTOP (and any other stormtop or JFV alt. accounts)
F5ers - sammywammybamy
dramakings/queens - anybody with their head not on straight during a major hurricane
trolls - JFV, STORMTOP, Unfriendly, the argumentive ones and those bringing up GW and politics
trollflamers - flsky, Orcasystems, anyone excessively quoting and bashing the trolls
imposters - This was a big problem in 2007 and 2008, though DrakoenG appeared in 2009
Fake girls - stormyeyes, JulieP
Pornposters - Mornez, and there was also an infamous one in 2007...
1st of all un call for and 2nd of all re move MY NAME FROM THAT NOW Please 3dr of al not vary nic too add some one name be hide there back when there not a round so re move my name now or i will go too the Admin about this
RE MOVE MY NAME FROM THE list NOW
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