Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Thanks for the update, Doc...

Thanks Dr.

Thanks, Doc.

"The latest 06Z (1am EST) run of the GFS model predicts that this weekend's storm will bottom out at a pressure of 968 mb, about the same minimum pressure achieved by last year's destructive Winter Storm Klaus (967 mb). "

Question: Doesn't the GFS have the same under-intensity bias with central pressure and peak winds for extra-tropical systems as it does tropical systems, though probably less so? (due to the spatial resolution, primarily)

Always worth reading the good Doctor's blog.
Does anyone have a long range (April) forecast for Europe?
I think this article on BBC is relevant:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8534052.stm

The NWS WFO-issued hurricane local statement is changing a little in format for this upcoming season.

SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 10-12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
920 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK -NOAAPORT
-OTHER NWS PARTNERS AND NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM: THERESE Z. PIERCE
MARINE AND COASTAL SERVICES BRANCH CHIEF

SUBJECT: CHANGES TO THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FORMAT: EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2010

BEGINNING MAY 15 2010...IN RESPONSE TO USER COMMENTS RECEIVED IN THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON...CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT /HLS/ PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS FORECAST OFFICES /WFO/S. NWS WILL RETAIN THE FORMAT OF THE HLS ADOPTED IN 2009...WITH AN OVERVIEW BLOCK FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH/WARNING VALID TIME EVENT CODE /VTEC/ SEGMENTS

THE CHANGES FOR 2010 ARE AS FOLLOWS:

1. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE ORDERED IN THE OVERVIEW BLOCK...PRIMARILY BY HAZARD TYPE AND SECONDARILY BY RELATIVE LOCATION...AS FOLLOWS:

HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL ZONES
HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR INLAND ZONES
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARINE ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR COASTAL ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING AND HURRICANE WIND WATCH FOR INLAND ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR MARINE ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR INLAND ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARINE ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH FOR INLAND ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARINE ZONES

2. THE SECTION HEADLINES WITHIN THE MARINE ZONE SEGMENTS CHANGE AS FOLLOWS:

THE /MARINE/ SECTION HEADLINE WILL NO LONGER BE USED.
THE /WINDS/ SECTION HEADLINE WILL CHANGE TO /WINDS AND SEAS/.
THE /TORNADOES/ SECTION HEADLINE WILL CHANGE TO /TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS/.

A SUMMARY OF THE HLS FORMAT FOR 2010 AND AN HLS EXAMPLE IS PROVIDED ON LINE AT:
http://www.weather.gov/os/hurricane/resources/hls.pdf

Quoting ycd0108:
Always worth reading the good Doctor's blog.
Does anyone have a long range (April) forecast for Europe?
I think this article on BBC is relevant:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8534052.stm

We should be doing so much more to make sure our garbage doesn't end up in the water...and all water leads to the ocean. No excuse for plastic to be collecting in a gyre in the oceans...none.

Thanks, Doc! Going to be a bad weekend in Europe

Cell with some rotation headed toward Sebastian, FL. Those many times don't play well near the ocean..

Wow, Skye, you are so right. What a strange day we are having. Hope the folks in Sebastian are paying attention.

Quoting atmoaggie:
Thanks, Doc.

"The latest 06Z (1am EST) run of the GFS model predicts that this weekend's storm will bottom out at a pressure of 968 mb, about the same minimum pressure achieved by last year's destructive Winter Storm Klaus (967 mb). "

Question: Doesn't the GFS have the under-intensity bias with central pressure and peak winds for extra-tropical systems as it does tropical systems, though probably less so? (due to the spatial resolution, primarily)

Answer: That depends.

OGal and Skye,
Could be a good day for waterspouts in the Bahamas also.

Quoting Grothar:


Answer: That depends.

Of course it does depend on the size of the system...as related to spatial resolution of the model, anyway. The smallest systems are the worst to look to GFS for a good forecast of intensity. Synoptic scale trough? GFS is perfectly suited for that.

We are somewhere in the middle with this one.

Good morning all.

If anyone is interested, I have finished my 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook and posted it on my blog. This includes the analog years we have been discussing.

Feel free to leave comments, criticism, or questions.

Quoting StormW:
SST Anomalies from yesterday. Getting even warmer close to the African coast.

That's bad or very bad right?

Quoting CycloneOz:
I oppose the politicization of GW.

However, I believe in the following:

*Our planet's oceans should not be used as dumping grounds.

*Our oceans should not be over-fished.

*We should do what we can not to pollute our air or fresh water supplies...short of politicization of GW. Instead, let's re-examine the regulations in place, ensure compliance, and develop new technologies to help preserve critical resources like air and water.

I stand behind you with a cold can of beer in hand and whole heartily agree with you.

Thanks Dr. and Good Morning Folks......Pretty "messy" Winter weather out there this season for parts of the US and now the storm headed towards Spain. Can't wait to see what the severe weather season brings for the US in Spring and H-season later on down the road.........Very active start to the year, worldwide, in terms of weather and natural disasters so far........Ouch

The winter storm-fest continues for the U.S.
This winter's relentless winter storm-fest over the U.S. continues this week, with a powerful cyclone over the Northeast U.S. expected to bring 2 - 3 feet of snow to the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont. The storm is wrapping in too much warm air to bring heavy snow to the major cities along the coast, where most of the precipitation will fall as rain. Next Tuesday, a powerful low pressure system is expected to bring heavy rains to Florida, with the possibility of snow falling in northern Georgia and surrounding regions.

Don't you mean a powerful Low pressure System?

Levi32 nice page big A+

Quoting AussieStorm:
The winter storm-fest continues for the U.S.
This winter's relentless winter storm-fest over the U.S. continues this week, with a powerful cyclone over the Northeast U.S. expected to bring 2 - 3 feet of snow to the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont. The storm is wrapping in too much warm air to bring heavy snow to the major cities along the coast, where most of the precipitation will fall as rain. Next Tuesday, a powerful low pressure system is expected to bring heavy rains to Florida, with the possibility of snow falling in northern Georgia and surrounding regions.

Don't you mean a powerful Low pressure System?

Low pressure systems can all be called cyclones. If you think he called it a hurricane by mistake, hurricanes or typhoons are technically called "tropical cyclones". I know the southern hemisphere where you live calls them just "cyclones" which makes it confusing, but the term "cyclone" can refer to any rotating storm, tropical or extratropical.

Quoting atmoaggie:

Of course it does depend on the size of the system...as related to spatial resolution of the model, anyway. The smallest systems are the worst to look to GFS for a good forecast of intensity. Synoptic scale trough? GFS is perfectly suited for that.

We are somewhere in the middle with this one.

I know you will reall enjoy this link. Funny, but I was reading it last night. True!! Enjoy!!

Link

Quoting xcool:
Levi32 nice page big A+

Thanks xcool :)

Levi32 ANYTIME

Widespread flooding for NT, Australia


A monsoon trough and low are causing flooding over parts of the Northern Territory and it's likely to become widespread as the monsoon deepens.

Some areas near the Top End coast have had 70-to-120mm of rain in the last few days. Nhulunbuy has picked up 130mm, their highest two-day total in 14 months.

Moisture from the monsoon is filtering south where levels are already quite high.

Alice Springs was hit by a large storm on Wednesday afternoon due to another trough, bringing a month of rain in less than two hours. The town's airport ended up with 61mm in about three hours, its heaviest downpour in nine years, which led to flash flooding.

More flooding is possible in the Alice Springs district and it may become serious if the monsoon low takes its projected path to the south. Some computer models are indicating hundreds of millimetres over the region by mid-next week, which could be devastating.

Widespread falls of 100-to-200mm are likely over nearly all of the territory by this time next week due to a monsoon, which has been largely inactive so far this month.

Alice Springs may be the wettest place in the territory by the end of the month, bringing the Todd River to life.

- Weatherzone

Desert deluge: wettest February day in years


Alice Springs has recorded its wettest day in nine years, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

Forecaster Mark Kersemakers says 61 millimetres fell at the Alice Springs airport yesterday - the most since January 2001.

He says the town's average monthly rainfall for February is 41 millimetres.

"We're expecting this showery, stormy weather to continue for the rest of this week down there," he said.

"We could even have some heavier, more widespread rain across Central Australia during the weekend or later in the weekend and early next week.

"If this comes off, which is looking more and more likely, we're talking falls over 100 millimetres.

- ABC

Quoting Levi32:


Low pressure systems can all be called cyclones. If you think he called it a hurricane by mistake, hurricanes or typhoons are technically called "tropical cyclones". I know the southern hemisphere where you live calls them just "cyclones" which makes it confusing, but the term "cyclone" can refer to any rotating storm, tropical or extratropical.

Hey, don't be too hard on Aussie. He is a great guy. You'll turn his whole world "upside down". How you doing Aussie? Long time no talk.

Quoting Grothar:


Hey, don't be too hard on Aussie. He is a great guy. You'll turn his whole world "upside down". How you doing Aussie? Long time no talk.

Lol, Aussie's awesome :) I'm just trying to clear that up for him.

Quoting xcool:
Levi32 nice page big A+

Ditto on that......Very good analysis of the current indicators and trends. So far Dr. M, Bastardi,Storm, Yourself and several others on the Blog have all indicated an active season coming up. No one knows what the actual number will be but I can see NHC and Gray & Company coming out with a range in the ballpark of 12-17 named storms with their initial forecasts later this year if these current trends continue.

Levi32, very informative page you have there. Would saying 20 storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 Major's be out of line for ATL. I seriously have a bad feeling about the ATL and the WPAC this year.

Quoting Grothar:


I know you will reall enjoy this link. Funny, but I was reading it last night. True!! Enjoy!!

Link

Thank you for sharing that. (WTH were you on last night?)

Quoting Grothar:


Hey, don't be too hard on Aussie. He is a great guy. You'll turn his whole world "upside down". How you doing Aussie? Long time no talk.

I just found it confusing how the Doc called it a "cyclone" then referred to another as a "strong Low Pressure System" I know they both mean the same thing but consistency should be kept. I am doing well, Had a major Anniversary the other day which was a very somber day.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Levi32, very informative page you have there. Would saying 20 storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 Major's be out of line for ATL. I seriously have a bad feeling about the ATL and the WPAC this year.

It wouldn't be too far of a stretch considering that we have 1995 and 2005 in the analog package, but I'm playing it a bit lower right now until I see how things shape up in May, when I will update my numbers. I certainly don't expect to see another 2005 season. 14 storms is still well above normal, and is pretty close to the average of the analog package. Hopefully the year won't be as bad as it could be.

Preparation is KEY in any Cane Season,.take the grace of time and prepare now for the Upcoming 2010 Cane season.

2010 Hurricane Prep Entry

Quoting Patrap:

Cue the theme from Jaws...

Quoting Patrap:
Preparation is KEY in any Cane Season,.take the grace of time and prepare now for the Upcoming 2010 Cane season.

2010 Hurricane Prep Entry

Amen, Pat. It doesn't matter how slow 2009 was... 2010 is a whole new year and it's just as important to have a plan now as it was after the busy 2004 and 2005 seasons...

Quoting Levi32:


It wouldn't be too far of a stretch considering that we have 1995 and 2005 in the analog package, but I'm playing it a bit lower right now until I see how things shape up in May, when I will update my numbers. I certainly don't expect to see another 2005 season. 14 storms is still well above normal, and is pretty close to the average of the analog package. Hopefully the year won't be as bad as it could be.

I have my fingers crossed for ya's all. We've been lucky here in Australia, only 4 Cyclones, 1 major.
Goodnight all. Stay safe.

Quoting Levi32:


It wouldn't be too far of a stretch considering that we have 1995 and 2005 in the analog package, but I'm playing it a bit lower right now until I see how things shape up in May, when I will update my numbers. I certainly don't expect to see another 2005 season. 14 storms is still well above normal, and is pretty close to the average of the analog package. Hopefully the year won't be as bad as it could be.

I think I am trending a little lower than that.

As per Levi's blog post, the tracks and total numbers (TS, or better) of all systems in:
1958 (10)
1964 (12)
1966 (11)
1970 (10)
1978 (11...
... + 1 unnamed subtropical storm listed for mid January!?!)

Quoting atmoaggie:

I think I am trending a little lower than that.

As per Levi's blog post, the tracks and total numbers (TS, or better) of all systems in:
1958 (10)
1964 (12)
1966 (11)
1970 (10)
1978 (11...
... 1 unnamed subtropical storm listed for mid January!?!)

Except for 1964 and 1970 with a Cat 3 hitting Texas the rest had little land falling hurricanes and most of them appear to weak cyclones and mostly tropical storms and depressions.

Quoting atmoaggie:

Thank you for sharing that. (WTH were you on last night?)

HA!

Quoting AussieStorm:

I just found it confusing how the Doc called it a "cyclone" then referred to another as a "strong Low Pressure System" I know they both mean the same thing but consistency should be kept. I am doing well, Had a major Anniversary the other day which was a very somber day.

Understood, Aussie. Hang in there!!

Quoting atmoaggie:

I think I am trending a little lower than that.

As per Levi's blog post, the tracks and total numbers (TS, or better) of all systems in:
1958 (10)
1964 (12)
1966 (11)
1970 (10)
1978 (11...
... 1 unnamed subtropical storm listed for mid January!?!)

Quoting StormChaser81:


Except for 1964 the rest had little landfalling hurricanes and most of them appear to weak cyclones and mostly tropical storms and depressions.

Lol @ the January storm.

You both make good points and the reason I am forecasting above the average numbers of those 5 years is because they were not only during a cold PDO, but a cold AMO as well. A cold Atlantic meant fewer and less intense hurricanes. The warm AMO/cold PDO overlap was back in the late 40s through 1960, making 1958 the only year that was within that overlap. We are in that same overlap in the cycle now going into a cold PDO but the AMO is still warm. This is the best overall global ocean setup for active Atlantic hurricane seasons, which we have been beginning to see a lot of this decade.

Keep in mind we do still have some very big hitters in the line-up with 1964, 1995, 1998, and 2005.

Quoting StormChaser81:


Except for 1964 the rest had little landfalling hurricanes and most of them appear to weak cyclones and mostly tropical storms and depressions.

Ohh, there were some nasties, to be sure.

A few majors into Mexico, Helene in '58 came very close to hitting OBX as a cat 4, Hilda in '64 almost was a Betsy a year early for NOLA, but, yeah, there are a ton of almosts and a lot of landfalls of weaker systems.

Hilda, '64:


I wonder what kept this mid-Sept TS from doing much of anything...that could have been a bad one:

good morning all,

i was watching a show the other day where they stated in the middle ages that when bad weather occurred it was blamed on people who were said to be practicing witchcraft. some 50,000 people were killed during this period. just thought it was interesting, it was the first time i had heard this.

sorry kind of strange and out of the blue, thought i'd share.

Quoting WaterWitch11:
good morning all,

i was watching a show the other day where they stated in the middle ages that when bad weather occurred it was blamed on people who were said to be practicing witchcraft. some 50,000 people were killed during this period. just thought it was interesting, it was the first time i had heard this.

sorry kind of strange and out of the blue, thought i'd share.

Now that is a pleasant thought for the morning!

Quoting Levi32:


Lol @ the January storm.

You both make good points and the reason I am forecasting above the average numbers of those 5 years is because they were not only during a cold PDO, but a cold AMO as well. A cold Atlantic meant fewer and less intense hurricanes. The warm AMO/cold PDO overlap was back in the late 40s through 1960, making 1958 the only year that was within that overlap. We are in that same overlap in the cycle now going into a cold PDO but the AMO is still warm. This is the best overall global ocean setup for active Atlantic hurricane seasons, which we have been beginning to see a lot of this decade.

True!

Still having trouble thinking about any more than 14 named...leaning to a couple less. And I every once in a while hear someone point out 2005 as an analogue year...but the 2004-2005 Nino was barely a Nino at all, PDO was opposite, NAO was different...

And the SSTs, yeah, we have some positive anomalies in the MDR, Cape Verde, and Caribbean. Had that last year, too...

Quoting atmoaggie:

Ohh, there were some nasties, to be sure.

A few majors into Mexico, Helene in '58 came very close to hitting OBX as a cat 4, Hilda in '64 almost was a Betsy a year early for NOLA, but, yeah, there are a ton of almosts and a lot of landfalls of weaker systems.

Hilda, '64:


I wonder what kept this mid-Sept TS from doing much of anything...that could have been a bad one:

Yup you always have at least one or two nasty storms during a average year. Ya Felice in 1970 could of been real bad for the Keys and Texas.