January 2010: extremes and monthly summary
The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.
Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:
According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.
A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.
Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).
Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.
Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.
Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.
U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::
All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.
Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.
The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.
Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.
Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.
Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.
Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).
Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)
Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.
Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.
Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.
Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.
Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).
Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.
Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.
January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.
Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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While your movie sounds fine on the face of it, someone please explain to me how the alleged tiny temperature rise can have such dramatic effects.
I seriously doubt that a 3/4 degree C rise in the temperature of the lower atmosphere over the last century represents enough gigajoules of heat to melt any significant amount of polar ice.
Can someone please help me with the math behind that claim? I suspect that other factors have a much larger effect on the ice caps than AGW.
Let's remember, that the earth is basically a large molten welding spark with a very thin cooler skin. The very fact that the tectonic plates move at all, proves that there are powerful subterranean currents in the molten core that certainly affect the temperature of the surface. That is why there are earthquakes from time to time.
I am really tired of individuals who make micro observations of this or that and then extrapolate the data to fit their imagined effects.
It clearly seems that visions of fame seriously affects these wild predictions.
Who wouldn't want to be the savior of the planet? Trouble is, humans are not nearly as significant as they like to think they are.
Most of the Co2 goes into the ocean rightnow, but the capacity is not endless, and the ocean will stop acting as a heat sink - so to speak. Same goes for other carbon sinks.
It is explained here (4 parts)
Even if the earth warmed enough to melt the icecap.....who's to say that threatens life when the dinosaurs likely lived in an ice-free world...
Antarctic ice records show much higher concentrations of CO2 and higher temperatures back in the dinosaur age than anything we are dreaming of now.
Why has this become a red-state, blue-state issue? Aren't there larger things to consider?
Yes, but it was also warmer back than.
And during such events, the ocean collapses - becomes acid. FOod chain gone ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian-Triassic_extinction_event
That's not much less ice considering the warm PDO and warm AMO intersection since the late 90s. Warm world oceans = less ice = warmer earth average temperature. What a revelation.... =)
Oh yeah it's complicated, but at the same time so simple. With this many variations and variables that people bring in to the equation, you can pretty much make a case for anything if you say it right. People try to deny it but 30 years ago they were talking about an ice age creating a frozen planet...lol. Guess why? Cold PDO Cold AMO in the 1960s and 1970s....same logic....cold oceans = more sea ice = colder earth average temperature = more glaciers etc etc etc...
CYCLONE TROPICALE GELANE (12-20092010)
7:00 AM Réunion February 20 2010
===========================================
Pre-Cyclone Alert for Réunion Island - Yellow Alert
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Gelane (965 hPa) located at 18.6S 61.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots.
Heh, no-se Jo-way
This was from an article in times magazine, which was not very scientific.
News Release : Team finds subtropical waters flushing through Greenland fjord
Would you rather I bore you with a bunch of numbers that mean next to nothing because of all the controversy about data corruption and inaccuracy :)
Looking at the big picture yields a fresh perspective on things that makes so much sense when you think about it.
Wanna know why subtropical water is making it to Greenland? The Atlantic Ocean has been warmer than normal since the 1990s, due to a natural cycle, the AMO. And if people were investigating Greenland back in the 1950s as intensely as they are today, they would have found the same thing.
"If there were a typo in The Origin of Species by Charles Darwin, would that nullify the theory of evolution?"
No, but if his data was insufficient in quantity (or amount of time observed) and in some cases falsified (like the GW scandals in Europe), then yes, the theory would lose credibility.
It never ends lol. I have never before entered the debate, although my opinion on GW has been known around here for years. Right now I have nothing better to do so I'm offering my side of the debate.
The Gulf Stream temporary diverted west of Greenland several times during January and February 2010, in case you missed it. It's not the amount of global warming itself as the RATE of change that's important. During the dinosaur age we had higher CO2, but of course we also had dinosaurs.
Exactly!
Ya might want to do some more research on that of which you consider settled.
There is a 23C-line bulge pushing the north end of the sub-20C zone eastward, causing it to shrink. Normally the coolest part of the current is now 19C and further south there is a cooler pocket at 16C. At the Gulf Stream, a cold intrusion is pushing east at 40N and cutting off the main current.
On the 1st point, it doesn't matter if dinosaurs were here 740,000 years ago or not, the point is those records, however far back they may go, show a far warmer earth at a point in our history than we even now fear could come to pass in the future.
On the 2nd point, I don't dig up enough stuff to be able to refute that, and maybe it's true, but I do know the amount of data back in the 50s was pretty pathetic to the amount we have now, and it's hard to get an accurate picture of the state of the oceans back then.
Also now that I think about it, the Warm PDO/AMO intersection was in the 40s, and the PDO went cold in the 50s, so that may explain it. Greenland would have the best chance of significant melting back in the 40s when the earth was warming similarly to the way it has the last 30 years.
Your statistic of less than 1% is itself proof that propaganda is giving people the wrong idea. There are far more scientists than that on the other side of the issue.
I hope you acknowledge that the sea level been 120 metre back than. But hej reading your comments, this will be fun - if you survive the complications during the great flood! (back when all the ice melted)
Surface Forecast @ 90HRS 12NOON CST 2-23-10
Map 00Z Run, same day and time 850MB Temps
I can't, because like I said we've only had reliable records for a few decades. That in and of itself is enough to say that it's absurd to make wild conclusions about the sea ice patterns around Greenland when we've only observed maybe one short leg of the cycle, and we have no way of knowing if that will continue forever.
I'm not saying that we know for certain what happened in the 50s, but common sense tells me that significantly warming the Atlantic Ocean will melt more sea ice....that's plain and simple.
Why were people screaming in the 70s of a frozen ice age earth? I'll tell you why...the AMO and PDO were both cold...in other words most of the world's oceans were colder than normal. Glaciers GREW....now the AMO and PDO have been warm, and the glaciers are melting....wow?
Sure sea levels rise when ice melts, but that won't destroy all life on the planet lol. If you live on a beach, move inland a few miles! How hard is that?
But it seems no matter what people say, you have the answer.
You cannot be serious...so what would the temp trend be without us here, since everything is so solid?
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200401 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1001 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO
ADD THE MENTION OF FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AREAS OF
SPRINKLES MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE TONIGHT. NEW MODEL DATA STILL
DEPICTS AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY BUT THE
SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL. THE NEW NAM ALSO
EXTENDS OUT TO THE MORNING OF 12Z TUESDAY AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...SUPPORTING SNOW IN ITS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TEMPERATURE
PROFILES. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF THE NAM CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS REGARDING TUESDAYS SYSTEM...BUT AS
THE NEW 00Z GFS COMES IN AT THIS TIME /ONLY OUT TO MONDAY
MORNING SO FAR/ THE TWO MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF FEATURES IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AND WILL EVALUATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GFS AS IT COMES IN.
82/JLD
Not exactly --
31,486 American scientists have signed this petition,
including 9,029 with PhDs
Wait to hear rebuttal with respect to the survey sample of the PHD's that negate this population of legitimate signers after the fact. Was it 26 in total/?
How may made the IPCC report? 52?
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