January 2010: extremes and monthly summary
The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.
Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:
According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.
A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.
Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).
Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.
Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.
Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.
U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::
All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.
Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.
The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.
Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.
Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.
Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.
Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).
Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)
Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.
Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.
Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.
Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.
Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).
Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.
Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.
January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.
Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Below is excerpt from Dr. Masters' blog for the folks who continue to argue we should do nothing about our unsustainable reliance on fossil fuels and also who probably do not like to read:
...A negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.
If you still cannot bring yourself to read, then I'll summarize it for you:
The caps are melting.
The northern center of the large tropical disturbance in the central equatorial Pacific, which is considered to be the center of 90C, has continued ESE overnight, and is now near 1.0N, 154W. The circulation is becoming harder to distinguish as it nudges closer to the equator. Convection has decreased a bit near this center overnight, and as expected, the entire system has become very southern-hemisphere-oriented.
Most of the convection is now concentrated along a surface trough in the southern hemisphere along 6S. There are now two separate circulations apparent along this trough, which can be seen on satellite imagery and 850mb vorticity maps. The first low that we have been tracking this whole time is now near 6S, 157W, just west of Starbuck Island. The LLC is still ill-defined and hard to pinpoint. Convection has remained persistent and relatively unchanged overnight. The system has moved a bit southeastward overnight, and this slow movement is expected to continue. This will take it into an area of moderate to strong wind shear due to the subtropical jetstream, positioned to its southeast.
The 2nd low has developed to the west of the first one, near 7S, 162W, and is the last low in the chain. This new low has less low-level vorticity than the other one, but has a much more well-defined circulation. Moderate convection has persisted with this feature, with little movement overnight. This last center has a more favorable upper-level environment ahead of it if it chooses to develop, and a weak anticyclone is developing over the top of it. This center is expected to begin a slow east or southeastward motion over the next few days.
Overall...The entire central Pacific disturbance remains very elongated with multiple centers. The center north of the equator will probably not remain there for long, and will either join the other two south of the equator, or dissipate altogether. The two centers currently in the southern hemisphere are fighting for the energy edge, and either one will take over and develop at the expense of the other one, or they will merge together and develop as one entity. This latter option is the position currently taken by the GFS. Due to the proximity of the subtropical jet, I believe the western center has the best chance to develop as it comes east, and I believe this will happen gradually over the next 5 days.
At any rate, it is still very intriguing to watch this disturbance spin against itself in opposite hemispheres.
Be a good way to fend off frost and crop damage too :-)
What surprises me is the sudden consistancy with the last three GFS runs for that time period, and especially between the 00Z and 12Z runs. Check this out, this is all for the exact same time period (18Z on Tuesday).
18Z @ 120 hours.
00Z @ 114 hours.
06Z @ 108 hours.
12Z @ 102 hours.
I was there a couple of years back, there is plenty of natural vegetation/grasses out there. My bad, there are 100 Wind Turbines, here is the link from the company who operates them:
Link
Today, you can't go to any news sites without seeing Tiger Woods' face plastered on them...
c'est les nouvelles....
An illustrated guide to the latest climate science
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/17/an-illustrated-guide-to-the-latest-climate-science/
And according to the last threee GFS runs we're going to get slammed, AGAIN!!
How we know global warming is happening
Skeptical Science explains: It's the oceans!
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/15/the-climate-science-project-global-warming-is-happening-ocean -heat-content/
What does that mean for temps and weather?
No, not the Woods thing again ,,,,,,aaaarrrgggg!!!
It doesn't change when the source changes, and it its for 2008, look a the column heading.
This is possible. The SOI burst (the direct cause of the development of 90C) is injecting moisture into an already enhanced southern branch over the eastern Pacific and North America. You can still see a weak connection of moisture from 90C all the way up to my back yard in Alaska. It was stronger yesterday, but it is definitely possible that some moisture will still get picked up and carried across into the lower 48 next week.
Climate change will lead to war, vets warn
Coalition: They argue for green energy
Rolling on to the state Capitol Campus in a 45-foot bus, several veterans of the Iraq war joined with state legislators who are military veterans to make the link between fighting climate change and boosting national security through clean energy.
The debate over global warming has moved beyond melting ice caps that threaten polar bears and other environmental threats to a bipartisan issue with links to national security, said state Sen. Steve Hobbs, D-Lake Stevens, a former infantry officer.
Climate change is a national security threat that destabilizes governments and attracts terrorist organizations, Hobbs said.
We re sending truckloads of money out of the country every hour to buy oil, said state Rep. Larry Seaquist, D-Gig Harbor, a former Navy warship captain. We need an energy-independent economy.
http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/northwest/story/1069842.html
I've spent a few months in/around a wind farm while working on a turbine study. All cables are buried at the same depth most telephone lines located in right-of-ways, usually 4 to 6 feet deep. While the cable corridors need to be dug up during installation, farmers can begin farming this land as soon as the soil settles... it's not an issue.
Thanks, I seem to be doing alright for myself after one semester (well, I better be if the professors give me nicknames!). As for the snow, if I see any, it will be the 4th time this year I have, which far exceeds any frequency I have ever observed! However, the amounts here have been pitiful, with the only accumulation occurring the day Dallas had their foot+ of snow, when we got a quarter of an inch with a 10 minute snowburst. I'm hoping I'll be able to see more if this event materializes.
WooHoo!
Saturday, February 13, 2010
La Nina - The Underappreciated Portion Of ENSO
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191005
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 AM CST FRI FEB 19 2010
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF WEEKEND DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WITH WEAK
FORCING ALOFT AND A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...DONT EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING S/W.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY.
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED EARLY SUNDAY BY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION BUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL STILL MAINTAIN HAIL POTENTIAL DUE TO STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE OZARKS AND CONTINUES NORTHEAST...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIM SHOT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...HOWEVER...THE STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT USUALLY
DONT FAVOR ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
EARLY SUNDAY...RAPIDLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER MODEL CHAOS CONTINUES AND PINNING DOWN ANY
PARTICULAR DAY OR STORM SPECIFICS IS A DIFFICULT TASK TO SAY THE
LEAST. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE HOMED IN ON ONE OF TWO BASIC
SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE CONFUSION LIES IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC CYCLONE SOUTH OF ALASKA. THIS FORECAST
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/AND 12Z ECMWF. THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 00Z GFS HAS EXCELLENT SUPPORT FROM MANY OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF WAS ON BOARD WITH
A SIMILAR SOLUTION PRIOR TO IS 00Z RUN FLOPPING TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN. THE FAVORED SOLUTION TRANSPORTS A PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY
NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE DOMINANT HIGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS
AMPLIFIES THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN US ALLOWING A TROF OVER
THE NORTHWEST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE COLD AIR RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTH PLACING THE UPPER TROF IN A
VERY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 00Z GFS ARE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SATURATION AND COLD COLUMN
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER OBVIOUS CONCERNS ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. THE
00Z CANADIAN TRANSPORTS PACIFIC ENERGY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND IS VERY
SLOW TO DEVELOP A MASSIVE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM SEVERAL OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS..AND FINALLY...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF TOTALLY FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
AFTER ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THINK THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES AND MENTION RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITIES FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.
POPS/PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE REFINED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. GIVEN THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WHILE THE GFS DOES SHOW
RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP SOME 20
POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANOTHER SOLUTION
PANNING OUT. OTHERWISE...AFTER THIS WEEKEND...THE COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 59 51 64 54 63 / 10 10 20 50 70
WACO, TX 60 52 64 58 69 / 10 10 10 40 60
PARIS, TX 58 46 59 51 61 / 20 20 20 50 80
DENTON, TX 59 49 62 53 61 / 10 10 20 50 70
MCKINNEY, TX 58 49 61 54 62 / 20 20 20 50 80
DALLAS, TX 59 51 64 55 64 / 10 10 20 50 70
TERRELL, TX 59 49 63 55 65 / 20 10 20 50 70
CORSICANA, TX 60 50 63 57 66 / 10 10 10 40 60
TEMPLE, TX 60 51 65 56 73 / 10 10 10 30 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DUNN
Thank you for the link - finally had a chance to read it.
And now I'm REALLY confused. How is it possible that we are 7.7 F above average when we can't even hit our published average daily highs. I'm right here,firmly planted in a snow bank that hasn't melted since early November, I'm freezing my - - - , no I'm just frozen !!
How does this math work ?? HELP ME SEE THE LIGHT!!!!
The area of the dot map you refer to appears to cover a square bounded on the west by 85degreesW, on the north by 30degreesN, on the east by 80degreesW, and on the south by 25degreesN. ie The area covers more of the Gulf of Mexico than of Florida.
And just as the ocean warms less than the land during hot spells, the ocean cools less than the land during the cold spells.
So it is unsurprising that during winter, the average temperature of air over ocean+land is greater than the average temperature of air over land alone. Made even less surprising by the fact that the coldest portions of the recent cold waves went over Florida rather than over the Gulf.
Figures...
PARTICULAR DAY OR STORM SPECIFICS IS A DIFFICULT TASK TO SAY THE
LEAST."
12Z ECMWF @ 96 hours.
12Z ECMWF @ 120 hours.
It doesn't matter that you are not hitting your average daily highs if you are even further from your average daily lows...
For a simple example:
Say your average daily high is 32F
Average daily low = 0F
If for some reason the temperature stays constant day and night for the whole month (remember I am simplifying here) and is 20F.
Your likely average temperature would be about 16F but your actual average temperature would be 20F, +4F on the month. However, since most people move about in the warmest part of the day, they would say what a damn cold month based on empirical evidence....
Aftermath of a stealth bomber attacking a neighboring star system.
looks to be shaping into something.. blobby.
12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE STRONGLY CONVERGED ON THEIR PATTERN E OF THE ROCKIES DAYS 4-7 CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE MAJOR SNOWSTORM WED NIGHT/THU FOR THE MID ATLANTIC AND ESPECIALLY NEW ENG.
A BETTER THREAT FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM COMES FROM THE NEXT SRN
STREAM WAVE WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE SRN STATES TUE INTO EARLY
THU...AT THE SAME TIME THAT A POTENT PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SWD
FROM THE POLAR VORTEX IN FAR NRN CANADA. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS
NEXT SRN STREAM SYS IS LIKELY UNDERDONE BY NEW 12Z/19 MODELS. THE
STRONG SRN STREAM SYS COULD ALSO HELP LAY DOWN A STRIPE OF HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE DEEP S FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS EWD
TREK TO THE SE COAST. WITH MODELS CONVERGING ON THE NERN STREAM
CLOSING OFF OVER THE UPPER OH VLY AND MID ATLANTIC BY THU DAY
6...THE STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENG.
Blobby? Lol you mean this?
That's just a shortwave in the subtropical jet that will travel east across the gulf over the next couple days and flatten out. The gulf coast may see some scattered showers/t-storms from this but nothing significant.
No, you did not kill the blog! It's the middle of winter and people drop in and out on a regular basis.
I read the NWS Ft Worth-Dallas, TX Area Forecast Discussion from earlier today. It looks like we will see several inches or more of snow, on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Two more inches will set an all time snow season record, the DFW records go back to 1898. I am looking forward to this :0)!
thanks.
just took a wikipedia crash course in 'shortwaves'.. would the upper level moisture spanning from the yucatan to florida be classified as part of the shortwave? or does that feature carry a distinct classification?
Magnitude 3.4
Date-Time
* Friday, February 19, 2010 at 19:53:42 UTC
* Friday, February 19, 2010 at 11:53:42 AM at epicenter
Location 34.014°N, 117.186°W
Depth 4.8 km (3.0 miles)
Region GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
Distances
* 5 km (3 miles) SSW (196°) from Redlands, CA
* 7 km (4 miles) ESE (122°) from Loma Linda, CA
* 8 km (5 miles) SW (227°) from Mentone, CA
* 11 km (6 miles) NNE (22°) from Moreno Valley, CA
* 98 km (61 miles) E (92°) from Los Angeles Civic Center, CA
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 0.8 km (0.5 miles)
Parameters Nph=140, Dmin=7 km, Rmss=0.35 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=2
Source
* California Integrated Seismic Net:
* USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR
Viewing: 101 - 151
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