January 2010: extremes and monthly summary
The globe recorded its fourth warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January 2010 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007. January 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1998. Land temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record, but in the Northern Hemisphere, they were the 18th warmest. The relatively cool Northern Hemisphere land temperatures may have been due to the well-above average amount of snow on the ground--January 2010 snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the 6th highest in the past 44 years. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record in January, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS data sets. This was the second time in the past three months that the UAH data set has shown a record high global atmospheric temperature.
Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for January 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
A few notable global weather highlights from January 2010:
According to the United Kingdom's Met Office, the U.K. as a whole had its coolest January since 1987 and the eighth coolest January since records began in 1914. Scotland had its coolest January since 1979. During the first two weeks of January, the Irish Republic experienced a spell of extreme cold weather that began in mid-December, resulting in the most extreme cold spell over Ireland since early 1963, according to the Irish Meteorological Service. Most places of the Irish Republic had its coolest January since 1985 and the coolest January since 1963 in the Dublin area.
A rare summer snowfall occurred on January 18th in the town of Bombala, New South Wales, Australia. The town received a light dusting of accumulation, marking the first summer snow in the high terrain of southeast Australia since records began in 1965. The town has an elevation of around 3,000 feet (900 meters) above sea-level. Forecasters said that snow at such low elevations is unusual at any time of year, especially summer. Six days before the snow, temperatures had hit 37°C (99°F) in Bombala.
Eleven inches (28 cm) of snow fell in Seoul, South Korea on the 3rd, marking the greatest snowfall amount for that city since records began in 1937 (Source: BBC).
Central Beijing, China received 3 inches (8 cm) of snow on the 2nd, the most for a single day since January 1951, while suburbs of the city reported 13 inches (33 cm). Over 90 percent of flights at Beijing.s International Airport were affected. On January 6th, temperatures in Beijing dropped to -16.7°C (1.9°F), the lowest minimum temperature in the first ten days of January since 1971.
Figure 2. An unusual sight: Virtually all of Britain was covered by snow on January 7, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
January 2010: near-average temperatures in the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average January temperature was 0.3°F above average, making it the 55th coolest January in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past four months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December, followed by an average January. The coolest January temperature anomalies were in Florida, which had its 10th coldest such month. The Pacific Northwest was very warm, with Oregon and Washington recording their 4th warmest January on record. Seattle experienced its warmest January since records began in 1891.
Figure 3. Ranking of temperatures by state for January 2010. Florida had its 10th coldest January on record, while Washington and Oregon had their 4th warmest. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
U.S. drought
Precipitation across the U.S. was near average in January. Notably, Arizona had its 5th wettest January and New Mexico its 7th wettest. The only state much drier than average was Michigan, which had its 8th driest January. At the end of January, 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, a decrease of 4% from the previous month. This is the lowest drought footprint for the country since detailed drought statistics began in 1999.
U.S. records
A few notable records set in the U.S. during January 2010, courtesy of the National Climatic Data Center::
All-time low pressure records were set across most of California, Arizona, Nevada, and southern Oregon on January 20 - 21. This was approximately 10 - 15% of the area of the U.S.
Arizona set its all-time 24-hour state snowfall record: 48" at Sunrise Mountain Jan. 21 - 22.
The 50.7 inches (129 cm) that fell in Flagstaff, AZ Jan. 16 - 23 was the third highest five-day total ever recorded there.
Yuma, Arizona's total of 2.44 inches of rain (62 mm) was their 2nd greatest January total ever, narrowly missing the record of 2.49 (63 mm) set in 1949. Their daily total of 1.95 (50 mm) inches on the 21st was the greatest one-day January total ever.
Near Wikieup, AZ, the Big Sandy River crested at 17.9 feet, washing away numerous roads and setting a new all-time record crest, breaking the previous record of 16.4 feet set back in March 1978.
Burlington, VT had its largest single snowstorm on record, 33.1" on Jan. 1 - 3.
Sioux City, IA tied its all-time max snow depth record (28" on Jan. 7).
Beckley, WV had its snowiest January on record (40.9"; old record 37.3" in 1996)
Bellingham, Washington tied its record highest January temperature of 65°F on January 11.
Hondo, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 12°F on January 9.
Cotulla la Salle, Texas tied its record coldest January temperature of 16°F on January 9.
Records were broken or tied at Daytona Beach, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach Florida for the greatest number of consecutive days in which the daily high temperature remained below 60 degrees F (15.5 C). Daytona Beach's string was twelve days.
Jackson, KY and London, KY tied their record for longest streak of consecutive days falling below 32°F (11 days). Pensacola, FL had its 2nd longest such streak (10 days), and Mobile, AL its 3rd longest (10 days).
Key West, FL had its 2nd coldest temperature ever measured, 42°F. The record is 41°F, set in 1981 and 1886.
Moderate El Niño conditions continue
Moderate El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.2°C above average on February 10, in the middle of the 1.0°C - 1.5°C range for a moderate El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the first two weeks of February. A burst of westerly winds that developed near the Date Line in January has pushed eastwards towards South America over the past month, and this should keep the current El Niño at moderate strength well into March. All of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will weaken by summer. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.
January sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
January 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. Ice extent was lower than in 2009 and 2008, but greater than in 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The weather pattern over the Arctic in the first half of January 2010 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the ice pack is the thinnest on record for this time of year, and much above average temperatures this summer would likely cause a new record summertime sea ice loss.
Next post
My next post will be Monday or Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Learn more about what? When I clicked your video I got a video about Obama and socialism and communism. Stopped watching after 3 seconds.
I know who the Weathermen were, and I also know they were sometimes referred to as the "Weather Underground Organization". I was alive and watched news back then. I still don't understand what your point is! If you have something to say, say it.
I know but when he said they talk about Weather Underground here I assumed he meant this one.. The political organization he was talking about came out of absolutely nowhere.
Wouldn't that be weird though, if we get a May tropical cyclone for the 4th year in a row?
Yeah, forgot about the depression last year.
Based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, it was founded in 1995 as an offshoot of the University of Michigan's Internet weather database. The name is a tongue-in-cheek reference to the 1960s militant radical leftist student group the Weather Underground, which also originated at the University of Michigan.
It is but this hurricane season could get off to an early start with the above-normal SSTs and forecasted lower-than-normal pressures in the Caribbean. That will be the place to watch for early season action.
In my opinion this is easily a tropical depression right now.
Very nice outflow pattern, especially on the northern side.
Yep... And the tower ended up being a beautiful burst of convection. Check out the latest frame.
Hey levi!
The European model for May -July which shows an excessive area of below-average MSLP in the Caribbean and southwest Atlantic. As you stated sst's are above normal across the eastern atl i.e; main development region which may induce and early start to the cape-verde season. Pretty good bet on Neutral ENSO by july early august timeframe. Should be an interesting few months. adrian
Yea, but I like to look out well before hand, so IMO whenever we start blob watching, stalking, and having whole blogs worth of discussion about (usually around Late April or Early May) thats when Hurricane season for me starts. And May 1st is when I go out and look for Hurricane supplies anyways.
Hey Adrian good to see ya :)
Yup things look to be shaping up for an above-average year. The European has been showing a large heat surplus in tropical breeding grounds of the Atlantic. This would be the complete opposite of last year.
609
ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZFEB2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S
166.8W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 165.5W, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
TROUGHING. HOWEVER, 200439Z SSMI AND 200037Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP THE SYSTEM INTO A 35-KNOT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED NATURE
OF THE LLCC EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND FUTURE MODEL
DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
Lol they picked the wrong low to point at. That arrow points to the area of low pressure just east of 94P. 94P will likely absorb that area with time.
Good point that's probably true.
WEAX for USCGC WALNUT MOVREP DTG: 150118ZFEB10 UNCLASSIFIED
Here Drak, NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX are ALL over this one, expecting < 4" of snow total, but stay tuned!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
235 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2010
...THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX
ARRIVES TUESDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL REACH WEST TEXAS
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND NORTH TEXAS BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE CWA FROM BEFORE DAYBREAK THROUGH SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. GFS
HAS CAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 J/KG WHILE BULK SHEAR IS BEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SOME STORMS MAY BE MARGINAL SEVERE WITH
HAIL POTENTIAL UP TO NICKLE SIZE. THE WIND THREAT REMAINS LOW.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY THAT WILL ELONGATE WEST-EAST BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST NORTH TEXAS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE GOOD SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS STATED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...LOW
LEVEL WINDS FIELDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL. ALSO THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE MID 30S WHERE THE
SNOW POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. HAVE GONE WITH A SNOW/RAIN MIX SOUTH
OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS LINE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
JUST SNOW ELSEWHERE WITH LITTLE NORTH OF I-20. BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF... SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE VERY HARD TO PREDICT...THUS EXPECT
SEVERAL INCHES IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF COMANCHE TO HILLSBORO LINE.
THIS WILL BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PATH OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMES CLEARER. NO WINTER STORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME AS WE THINK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA (4" OR MORE IN 12HRS).
DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND AROUND NORMAL ON SATURDAY. 75
All it takes is 2" to set a new all time one season snowfall record for the DFW area. Our records go back to 1898.
Yea. The model QPF amounts don't look as impressive as they did yesterday which is leading me to change the snowfall accumulation totals.
I suspect that the next 3 or 4 runs off GFS/NAM will give us a better heads up of how much snow we will receive.
And I did double check, 2" of new snow will make the total 17.7", which would be a new record!!
It is truly amazing to have 14" of snow on the ground here in DFW, TX. I live in SE Arlington, TX. The morning after 2-12-10, I trekked over to visit an elderly neighbor and take a picture of her snow covered yarsd and there was about 14" of wet heavy snow all across her open yard.
You may receive more than that. Please understand, you're in College Station, TX. DFW, TX normally receives 2.5" of snow a winter, so I am sure your average is close to 0.5" of snow a winter.
Double checked and updated the numbers!
It all depends on where the snow axis sets up. My current thinking is somewhere around I-20 perhaps just south of.
Hope everyone is having a great winter. See y'all in a couple months...going back in to hibernation.
Up to an inch possible where you are is what the models are suggesting to me.
That's because the models are now much slower with the shortwave coming across Texas and doesn't allow it to phase as much with the energy coming into Minnesota from the north. The GFS has 500mb heights 600m higher over Texas than it did yesterday. The reason this results in less QPF is because the flatter shortwave isn't able to bring in a southeasterly surface flow out of the Gulf of Mexico. Without this moisture running into the arctic air coming from the north, the snow amounts would be greatly lessened.
It's all going to come down to timing of the features and this is a very tricky storm all the way across. The GFS timing of the polar vortex in Canada and the Texas shortwave have changed rather wildly from yesterday. Frankly I believe the GFS had a better handle on the system yesterday. It was handling the pattern beautifully for once.
I live 1.2 miles north of I-20!!
Based on this, I think there may be a fair chance that I will see at least one inch of snow!
You'll get snow lol. You won't be in the axis of heaviest amounts but you will be in the snow area.
I think you may be on to something Levi. The GFS showed three consecutive and nearly identical runs yesterday (00Z, 06Z, and 12Z) which seemed to be in uncannily good agreement with itself. Just an observation.
Interesting to read the earlier comments about Atlantic SST, SAL, Sahel Rainfall, current TCHP, Nino/Nina, etc. I too, think that all things considered we will have a far more active season than last year.
Taking all the components into account, I am looking to the SAL to be the deciding factor this year.
Surely will be an interesting one.
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