A ferocious blizzard likely to be even more intense that last weekend's crippling Mid-Atlantic "Snowmageddon" snowstorm is rapidly intensifying off the Northeast U.S. coast, just south of New York City today. Blizzard conditions with heavy snow, high winds, and near zero visibility have hit or are expected to hit portions of West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York, including the cities of New York, Newark, Wilmington, Atlantic City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington D.C. The storm responsible tracked across the center of the country yesterday, leaving a wide swath of snow amounts of 4 - 16" across Texas, Tennessee, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Missouri, Minnesota, Kansas, Iowa, Arkansas, Alabama, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. The storm is now centered over Lake Erie, with a new 989 mb low pressure center developing off the coast of Delaware. This new low is predicted to "bomb" into a mighty Nor'easter with a central pressure below 970 mb, the kind of pressure typically found in a Category 1 hurricane. This will bring strong winds, gusting over 40 mph, to a large portion of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. today, causing a larger region of blizzard conditions with blowing and drifting snow than was experienced during last weekend's "Snowmageddon" Nor'easter. Fortunately, today's Nor'easter will be far enough from the coast during its peak intensity that coastal flooding from storm surges will not be a concern. In addition, today's blizzard has a lower moisture content than "Snowmageddon", and the snowfall totals will not be as great. The storm has also wrapped in some warmer air from the south, resulting in a change-over to freezing rain and sleet near the coast this morning, which will limit accumulations. Nevertheless, most of the Mid-Atlantic that received two feet of snow from "Snowmageddon" last weekend will receive another foot of snow today, and there is a significant risk of roof collapses from the weight of all this snow.
Figure 1. The Nor'easter of February, 11, 2010 in a visible satellite image taken at 9:01 am EST. Image credit: NASA GOES project.
Snowiest winter on record for Baltimore, Wilmington, and Dulles
The snow from this latest blizzard have pushed snow totals for the 2009 - 2010 winter season to a new record for Baltimore, Wilmington, and Dulles Airport, and will likely set a new seasonal snowfall record in Philadelphia, Atlantic City, and Washington National Airport later today. As of midnight last night, here are the snowfall numbers so far for the 2009 - 2010 winter, and the records they have broken:
Baltimore, MD, 64.4". Old record: 62.5", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Washington Dulles Airport, VA, 65.7". Old record: 61.9", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Wilmington, DE, 59.5". Old record: 55.9", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Cities close to breaking their seasonal snowfall record:
Philadelphia, PA, 62.3". Current record: 65.5", winter of 1995 - 1996.
Washington D.C. National Airport, 48.8". Current record: 54.4", winter of 1898 - 1899.
Atlantic City, NJ, 45.5". Current record: 46.9", winter of 1966 - 1967.
All this comes with the end of winter still more than a month away. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models show yet another Nor'easter hitting the D.C./Baltimore/Philadelphia region next Monday. However, next Monday's storm is likely to be much weaker than the last two Nor'easters, with perhaps 4 - 8 inches of snow falling. It is too early to be confident of this prediction, and a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm may not materialize at all on Monday--or the storm could grow stronger than currently forecast, with more than a foot of snow falling.
Heavy snow events--a contradiction to global warming theory?
As I discussed in my previous post, record-breaking snowstorms are not an indication that global warming is not occurring. In fact, we can expect there may be more heavy snowstorms in regions where it is cold enough to snow, due to the extra moisture global warming has added to the atmosphere--an extra 4% since 1970. Snow is not the same as cold, and we have to look at global temperatures, not snowfall, to evaluate whether global warming is occurring. Heavy snow can act to bring down global temperatures, as occurred in December 2009, when the Northern Hemisphere experienced its second greatest snow extent on record (only 1985 saw greater December snow cover since reliable snow records began in 1967). Global average land temperatures, as a result, were just 31st warmest on record, even though global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. It will be interesting to see what global temperatures did in January, when the statistics are released next week. The global temperature of the lower atmosphere as measured by satellites was the warmest on record in January, and by a considerable margin. I'll discuss this finding in more detail once the blizzard is over. It's also of interest to note that December temperatures in the U.S. were the 18th coldest in the historical record, but January temperatures were 0.3°F above average, according to the National Climatic Data Center. As a whole, it's been a colder than average winter in the U.S., but not greatly so. However, December snow cover was the greatest on record in the contiguous U.S., and January's ranked sixth. Snow cover records go back 44 years, to 1967.
Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
Portlight.org disaster-relief continues to be more effective than some of the traditional large aid agencies in getting much-needed crutches, walkers, and other medical supplies to disabled victims of the Haitian earthquake. So, please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief. A few highlights from his blog:
The latest shipment arrived at Quisqueya University in Port-au-Prince on Friday morning; the shipment was unloaded and a portion of the supplies distributed to the St Nicholas Hospital in Sainte-Marc north of Port-au-Prince. This shipment included wheelchairs, crutches and canes in addition to clinical supplies. It was a busy day at Quisqueya; Susan Eitel, representative of USAID met with Richard this morning and Dr. Amy Nguyen of ACTS World Relief took delivery of DME at the Quisqueya campus.
We have several additional shipments queued up for transport, one of which shipped on Saturday; these shipments include the remainder of the donation from H&H Wholesalers. We are hoping to have another shipment out in the next few days.
We are concentrating on distribution for the next few days as storage is currently at a premium at Quisqueya; we are also concentrating on expanding our storage capabilities to allow for larger shipments to be handled, allowing us to help a larger segment of the disabled community.
Figure 2. The Portlight Relief Team unloads crutches shipped from Portlight's warehouse in Atlanta to a staging area at University Quisqeya, Port-au-Prince, Haiti. The relief team consists of ten Haitians being coordinated by Haitian-American Richard Lumarque, Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti. The relief team has been working full-time over the past week doing aid work.
Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Woohoo, another day of "No School". The kids will be crying about it in the Summer when they have to make up the Snow Days, lol.
We have whiteout conditions in the Annandale area of Fairfax County. The wind is picking up at a fast pace. We are now under a blizzard warning.
Little car in a big storm
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4-6 inches is my current thinking.
Be sure to take pictures and post them!
That 3 to 4 inch swarth the NAM is depicting is interesting. That should get Ike's attention for sure.
Also, Drak how do you see the upper air dynamics of this system. Earlier, the models didn't want to "close off" an upper Low, instead shearing it out.
If this GOM Low deepens more than currently depicted by the models, I am inclined to believe the upper dynamics would also be stronger as well. Should this happen, it would pull more moisture into the region, hence the possiblities of more snow in the watch areas.
Still no dice for Tally right?
...recorded temperature that day was 46.3 degrees Celsius [115degreesFahrenheit]...
...being in Rio was worse than being in a dry desert because seaside humidity gave the temperature a suffocating boost, making it feel much higher...
...Rio's heatwave was forecast to continue into...the city's famous four-day Carnival..."
The NAM and the GFS 00z runs would allow Tallahassee to see a rain/snow mix or a brief period of flurries on the very back edge of the system.
Really? Sounds interesting! I've only seen one snow flurry in my life so it would be great to see another one.
Welcome to the blog! Was the earthquake in Illinos this morning really that rare?
Welcome to WU Board.. U shall learn like i do everyday.. :)
Area forecast discussion...mesoscale update
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
955 PM CST Wednesday Feb 10 2010
Update...evening forecast looks to be on track. No adjustments for
the overnight expected. Will update the Winter Storm Watch just
before midnight...but no changes will be made at this time. Evening
model run data still coming in...and from what we have seen thus far
still indicates that significant snowfall accumulations will be
possible from late Thursday night into much of the day on Friday.
00z NAM buffer soundings for kmob and kgzh indicate heavy snowfall
possible by around 17z Friday...with even the kpns sounding
indicating a rain/snow mix changing to all snow at times around late
morning Friday. For now have the significant snow accumulations over
our interior zones...but we will have to monitor this developing
weather situation closely. Snowfall accumulations of two to four
inches are possible across the northern half of the watch area with
totals of one to three inches possible further south. There is still
some uncertainty regarding the forecast track of the surface
low...so stay tuned. The overnight shift will likely make further
adjustments to the forecast...and a Winter Storm Warning or Winter
Weather Advisory will likely be required for at least some of the
watch area. 12/ds
welcome! you have definitely found a great blog that one can learn a lot from! glad you decided to join. Although there can be a little bickering here and there :P
I'm not buying the NAM solution completely right now. I still see 1-3 inches for those aforementioned areas. If the 850hpa low deepened there would be more dynamic cooling and uplift to yield average snow to liquid ratios (10:1) The GFS is showing more progression and at 500mb more amplification rather than deamplification as the system moves eastward. The low on the GFS 00z and NAM 00z is deeper and with a good mid level dynamics is generating greater accumulations.
Only one??? How can you be sure? Did you chase it? LOL J?K :)
thanks!
I looked it up after I read that,
I felt one back in April 2008 that was in southern Illinois, I think it was a 5.2
thanks
I do have an opinion on GW, but really feel that my first day should be spent otherwise ;-)
Great weather discussion today, btw, so I beg of anyone that wishes to comment to keep it off of this board.
Please let this flow.
welcome aboard
Hmm i wonder If i will get any accumulations or not.. if not its still going b nasty tho.. Everyone be careful and have sum fun.. I believe i will get sum.. should know better by tomorrow!!
Don't miss the snow one bit.
So u or anyone else thinks the Nam is givin to much totals for snow depth?
Winter Weather Advisory
Statement as of 3:45 PM CST on February 10, 2010
... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 am Thursday to 6 am CSTFriday...
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow...which is in effect from 3 am Thursday
to 6 am CST Friday.
A strong upper level storm system will approach North Texas by early Thursday morning bringing a mixture of rain and snow to the region. Areas of light rain possibly mixed with some light sleet are expected to begin mainly after midnight tonight primarily south of the Interstate 20 corridor. Temperatures tonight are expected to fall to near freezing across all of North Texas.
On Thursday... widespread precipitation is expected to overspread all of North Texas and indications are that it will be cold enough for mainly snow to fall generally north of Goldthwaite to Waco to Palestine line. Farther south... a rain and snow mix is anticipated. Widespread accumulations of 1 to 3 inches of heavy wet snow can be expected with isolated amounts approaching 4 inches in some areas. It appears that the heaviest of the snow will fall in a swath from near Comanche to Stephenville to Fort Worth to Dallas and farther east into East Texas during the day Thursday. The precipitation will begin to taper off on Thursday evening from west to east.
Impacts to Road travel on Thursday should be fairly minimal as ground temperatures will remain slightly above freezing and the snow on roads should remain slushy. More significant impacts may come Thursday night into early Friday morning... as slushy snowfall freezes during the overnight hours on roads and bridges. Motorists traveling through North Texas on Thursday and especially early Friday should monitor this developing weather situation closely.
It should be stressed that this forecast is highly dependent on low level temperatures. If conditions are colder than anticipated then portions of the advisory area could be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning later tonight.
A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of winter precipitation may cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and plan on some travel delays.
Yep i live in central ny and we have had very few storms that brought us snow. We had one huge storm bring us almost 2" of rain which is unusual up here in late jan. After that we have had nothing for snow other then the few lake effect that has brought us little snow. Every storm so far is south of us and this last storm only got me 3" of snow. So yeah my region right now is way under its snowfall for the year. Syracuse is right on but they get alot of lake effect.
Taco :0)
The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 29 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary is also available on our
home Page at weather.Gov/Baltimore
********************storm total snowfall********************
... District of Columbia...
1 S Chevy Chase vill 15.5 930 PM 2/10
American University 14.0 630 PM 2/10
One of my friends in DC says she's worried about her low-pitch porch roof handling the weight of the ice plus the snow.
Overnight: Scattered snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Northwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Thursday: Scattered snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Northwest wind between 11 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Thursday Night: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. West wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. West wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Presidents' Day: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night: Scattered flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.
Wednesday: Scattered flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27.
So you can see very little snow in the forecast for us. Anything under 50% means little to no snow for us.
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