December 2009: 4th or 8th warmest December on record
The globe recorded its eighth warmest December since record keeping began in 1880, and 2009 tied with 2006 as the fifth warmest year on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated December 2009 as the 4th warmest December on record, and the year 2009 tied with 2007 as the second warmest year on record. NOAA rated December 2009 ocean temperatures as the 2nd warmest on record, next to 1997, and land temperatures as the 31st warmest on record. The anomalously cool conditions over much of northern Asian and North American land areas may be associated with the near record December snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere land areas--2nd most on record, behind 1985. Snow cover records go back to 1967. The December global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th warmest on record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville and RSS data sets.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for December, 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
One interesting note: the NASA global average temperature for 2009 was .57°C above average. NOAA's was .56°C above average. These temperatures were just .06°C below the all-time hottest year on record, 2005. The 11-year global sunspot cycle causes a variation of 0.1°C between the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle. We are currently at a deep minimum of the solar cycle, so we would have set a new global temperature record had we been at the maximum of the solar cycle. The other global temperature data set, the UK HadCRUT3 data, is not yet available for 2009. This data set is the one most often quoted by global warming skeptics, since it says that 1998 was the warmest year on record. However, HadCRUT3 fills in a huge area of missing data in the Arctic with the average temperature from the rest of the globe. This is bound to cause an underestimate of the global temperature, since the Arctic has warmed much more than the rest of the globe. The NASA and NOAA data sets fill in the missing data in the Arctic with data interpolated from the nearest stations in the Arctic, a procedure which is less likely to underestimate the global temperature.
December 2009: 14th coolest December on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average December temperature was 3.2°F below average, making it the 14th coolest December in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The U.S. has been on quite a roller coaster of temperatures over the past three months--the nation recorded its third coldest October on record, followed by its third warmest November, followed by its 14th coolest December. The coolest December weather was in the Central U.S., where Nebraska had its eighth coolest December; Texas, Nevada, and Wyoming their ninth; and Montana and Utah their tenth coolest.
December 2009 was the 11th wettest December in U.S. history. It was a record wet month for Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland; 2nd wettest month on record for New Jersey; and the third wettest month on record for South Dakota, North Carolina, and Alabama. The Northwest U.S. was dry, with Washington experiencing its 11th driest December on record.
The year 2009: 35th warmest for the U.S.
For the entire year of 2009, it was the 35th warmest year in the contiguous U.S during the 115-year record. The coolest state was Nebraska, which had its 19th coolest year on record, and the warmest state was California, with its 16th warmest year on record. The driest state was Arizona, where 2009 ranked as the 4th driest year on record, while the wettest states were Illinois, Alabama, and Arkansas, who all had their 2nd wettest year on record.
U.S. tornado deaths: 2nd lowest on record
The year 2009 was below average for number of tornadoes, with a final tally around 1120 expected, compared to the 3-year average of 1297, according to the Storm Prediction Center. The 21 tornado deaths in 2009 was the 2nd lowest death toll in the 60-year record. Only 1986, with its 15 tornado deaths, saw fewer fatalities. The 60-year average annual death toll is 84.
U.S. drought
At the end of December, 6% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought, which is well below average. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought, and U.S. drought extent is close to its lowest value for the past ten years. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona, and this will shrink over the remainder of January as much-needed rain falls across Arizona. About 43 percent of the contiguous United States had moderately-to-extremely wet conditions at the end of December, according to the Palmer Index (a well-known index that measures both drought intensity and wet spell intensity). This footprint is significantly larger than the long-term average.
Average U.S. fire activity in 2009
Significant fire activity occurred early in 2009, but wetter conditions across many parts of the nation as the year progressed, coupled with effective fire management, helped to restrain fire activity by mid-year. Despite the largest fire in Los Angeles County's (California) recorded history (Station fire), by the end of August the nationwide acreage burned by wildfire was very near the 2000 - 2009 average, and thereafter declined below average. Based upon data provided by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), fire activity in 2009 ranked fifth highest (sixth lowest) out of the past decade in terms of number of fires, about 1 percent below the 2000 - 2008 average. Acres burned in 2009 were 14.5 percent below the 2000 - 2008 average, ranking seventh highest (fourth lowest) since 2000. Average fire size also ranked seventh highest out of the 2000 - 2009 period, at about 14 percent below average.
Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on January 10, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño has been roughly constant for the 9 weeks ending January 10. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Most of the El Niño models forecast that El Niño has peaked and will gradually weaken. Most of the models predict that El Niño conditions will last into early summer, but cross the threshold into neutral territory by the height of hurricane season.
December sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
December 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979 and slightly below December 2008 levels, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2005, 2006, and 2007 saw lower December arctic sea ice extent. The weather pattern over the Arctic in December 2009 featured a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern tends to slow the winds that typically flush large amounts of sea ice out of the Arctic between Greenland and Iceland. In this way, a negative AO could help retain some the second- and third-year ice through the winter, and potentially rebuild some of the older, multi-year ice that has been lost over the past few years. However, the AO has increased significantly in January, and it is unclear what the net effect of the AO on sea ice transported out of the Arctic this winter will be.
Next post
I'm at the 90th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society in Atlanta, Georgia, and will be making my next post from Atlanta on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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can someone answer my question concerning the storm that is coming into CA on wednesday?
hi skypony, so it's coming from alaska?
Skyepony just posted a satellite pic that answers your question. Wednesday's system is at about 145W.
There are a lot of good points being made here about what could/should be done in the long-term. But IMO, the only focus, RIGHT NOW, should be on treating the injured, rescuing any remaining survivors, protecting/evacuating the orphaned, and providing sustenance to ALL of them.
And as far as what caused it, I say we leave that discussion to the scientists FOR NOW, because in light of the horrendous suffering that's going on in Haiti, IT JUST DOESN'T MATTER.
Again, this is just my opinion, and yeppers, I know what they say about those - but I believe it's of the utmost importance that we stay in the present moment, focused on what we can do to help RIGHT NOW!
i'm sorry to be a pain but the system at 145W doesn't look big enough for what everyone is saying is coming.
Quite often, northern Pacific storms will ramp up and rapidly intensify just off the coast of CA. The same thing happens with low pressure systems off the east coast. Noreasters may start out off the GA/SC/NC coast as a 1002mb low, but bomb out to <980mb by the time they pass Maine.
One concern I have is the idealism in this recovery effort. People have wonderful ideas but they treat Haiti like it is the States when nothing could be further from the truth. There are some wonderful people in Haiti. There are some very bad sorts as well. It goes beyond anything you've seen in the States. I've seen too many people enter Haiti with grandiose plans only to leave Haiti with bitter prejudice. No matter what happens, keep your eye on the ball and don't get sidetracked.
I don't know what this is about but having seen much in Haiti, I won't be surprised by much either.
There was a recent update to that report.
CNN) -- 12:09 p.m. Monday, January 18 -- Military officials now say three Americans, not 30, were injured in an incident outside the Port-au-Prince airport. They are being treated for injuries that are not life-threatening, CNN Pentagon correspondent Chris Lawrence reports.
11:40 a.m. -- Military officials in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, tell CNN Pentagon correspondent Chris Lawrence that 30 Americans have been hurt.
everyone have a good day.
Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Hate multiplies
hate, violence multiplies violence, and toughness multiplies toughness in a descending spiral of destruction....The chain reaction
of evil--hate begetting hate, wars producing more wars--must be broken, or we shall be plunged into the dark abyss of
annihilation.
Martin Luther King, Jr., Strength To Love, 1963.
Amen to this. I know I've said it before but often the larger news entities i.e. CNN et al. would report bad information from there.
I worry though because I know the situation is worse down there than being reported. I also worry that, at some point, it is going to overshadow the recovery effort. That is my biggest fear.
And there you have it...not that 3 wounded are any less important a story than 30.
Mass Casualty to Treating cuts and scrapes. Yes, no less important but, far less significant. And not very news worthy given the surroundings.
Thanks....yeah, CNN just did an update on the story.
18-JAN-2010 08:41:08 36.86 -104.72 4.1 5.0 NEW MEXICO
I think the only way to avoid it overshadowing is for people to wrap their minds around this very point - that it is likely worse than we're hearing, but that progress is being made. We absolutely MUST try to avoid advancing stories that haven't yet proven to be true, while those on the ground work to secure the area and provide heightened security for aid workers.
And for the record, I'm not talking about anyone in here passing stories along too soon...so please don't jump on me. I manage and monitor Portlight's Twitter account, and this weekend was a real education. Over and over again, people were "tweeting" falsehoods and errors, while at the same time sending out GPS coordinates of the orphanage we're trying to help. They put 2 young women and 150 children in serious danger by doing so, but there was no stopping them. Ultimately, the children and their caregivers had to be moved to a safer location.
If people (and again, I'm not talking about the WU community) could refrain from making this about themselves and what they're doing to try to help, lose the "me" factor, it would go a long way towards helping the efforts in Haiti.
And now, back to our sponsors...I'm stepping off my soapbox. :)
Exactly!
CNN is horrible.......simply Horrible......i would rather watch a breaking update from a cartoon channel then CNN.....I NEVER watch that channel! They never report any truth and make constant misleading statements just too capture headlines.
We seem to be doing quite a bit of moving and shaking the past few months.
And by we I mean the globe.
Oh...kay.
And no, I don't watch Fox news or MSNBC...both of whom didn't really cover the Haiti earthquake until the next morning after it happened.
I don't think its really out of the ordnary. Just some places that have not seen things for a while is getting moved where stress has built. Its an everyday occurance.
Fox jumped in and out of it in between regularly scheduled programing. As for MSNBC I have no clue, though I'm not gonna kill myself to find out.
Good early afternoon!
Stability of ice-sheet grounding lines
Richard F. Katz* (Department of Earth Science, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PR, U.K.) and M. Grae Worster (Institute of Theoretical Geophysics, Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge,Wilberforce Road,Cambridge CB3 0WA, U.K.)
Abstract
Recent observations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet document rapid changes in the mass balance of its component glaciers. These observations raise the question of whether changing climatic conditions have triggered a dynamical instability in the ice-sheet–ice-shelf system. The dynamics of marine ice sheets are sensitive to grounding-line position and variation, characteristics that are poorly captured by most current models. We present a theory for grounding-line dynamics in three spatial dimensions and time. Our theory is based on a balance of forces across the grounding line; it is expressed as a differential equation that is analogous to the canonical Stefan condition. We apply this theory to the question of grounding-line stability under conditions of retrograde bed slope in a suite of calculations with different basal topography. A subset of these have basal topography inspired by the Pine Island glacier, where basal depth varies in both the along-flow and across-flow directions. Our results indicate that unstable retreat of the grounding line over retrograde beds is a robust feature of models that evolve based on force balance at the grounding line. We conclude, based on our simplified model, that unstable grounding-line recession may already be occurring at the Pine Island glacier.
*Correspondence e-mail: richard.katz@earth.ox.ac.uk
Link to abstract: http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2010/01/13/rspa.2009.0434.short
What?!
How will climate warming affect ocean circulation? The answer isn't so simple.
The scientists noted “that the increased liquid and frozen freshwater flux into the Labrador Sea was probably tied to the large export of sea ice from the Arctic Ocean that contributed to the record minimum in sea-ice extent observed in the summer of 2007. Ironically, this disappearance of Arctic sea ice, which has been linked to global warming, may have helped trigger the return of deep wintertime [water sinking] to the North Atlantic.”
Astro & I were discussing the PIG glacier yesterday, ran across more info for his update.. The whole Antarctic studies are in such infancy a lot of fascinating ideas & conclusions are coming out of there concerning ice, earth & atmosphere.
Surprising return of deep convection to the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean in winter 2007-2008
Kjetil Våge, Robert S. Pickart, Virginie Thierry, Gilles Reverdin, Craig M. Lee, Brian Petrie, Tom A. Agnew, Amy Wong and Mads H. Ribergaard
Abstract
In the process of open-ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, surface water sinks to depth as a distinct water mass, the characteristics of which affect the meridional overturning circulation and oceanic heat flux. In addition, carbon is sequestered from the atmosphere in the process. In recent years, this convection has been shallow or non-existent, which could be construed as a consequence of a warmer climate. Here we document the return of deep convection to the subpolar gyre in both the Labrador and Irminger seas in the winter of 2007–2008. We use profiling float data from the Argo program to document deep mixing. Analysis of a variety of in situ, satellite and reanalysis data shows that contrary to expectations the transition to a convective state took place abruptly, without going through a phase of preconditioning. Changes in hemispheric air temperature, storm tracks, the flux of fresh water to the Labrador Sea and the distribution of pack ice all contributed to an enhanced flux of heat from the sea to the air, making the surface water sufficiently cold and dense to initiate deep convection. Given this complexity, we conclude that it will be difficult to predict when deep mixing may occur again.
Link to abstract: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n1/full/ngeo382.html
Posse Comitatus,..
Posse Comitatus Act
The Posse Comitatus Act contains legal loopholes by exception, except in such cases and under such circumstances as such employment of said forces may be expressly authorized by the Constitution or by Act of Congress.These exceptions provided a loophole by which Posse Comitatus has been suspended several times in this (20th) century, including the use of federal troops to end the rioting in Chicago in 1919, against the Bonus Marchers in Washington, DC in 1932, and under the Truman administration when a railroad workers strike was ended by nationalizing the railroads and placing them temporarily under the Army Corps of Engineers.
What would be the less case and the worst case of the possiblities from GW? Would it trigger a new ICE AGE for the Northern Hemisphere? Would we loose some Costal Land? Would man kind go poooof?
I believe Mother Nature will take back what is out of balance. It has happened before and it will happen again with or without the help of Man. I believe this is true?
There are some citations still missing,but all in all,a good read.
History
The Act was a response to, and subsequent prohibition of, the military occupation by U.S. Army troops of the former Confederate States during the ten years of Reconstruction (1867-1877) following the American Civil War (1861-1865). The U.S. withdrew Federal troops from Southern states as a result of a compromise in one of the most disputed national elections in American history, the 1876 U.S. presidential election. Samuel J. Tilden of New York, the Democratic candidate, defeated Republican candidate Rutherford B. Hayes of Ohio in the popular vote. Tilden garnered 184 electoral votes to Hayes' 165; 20 disputed electoral votes remained uncounted. After a bitter fight, Congress struck a deal resolving the dispute and awarding the presidency to Hayes.
In return for Southern acquiescence regarding Hayes, Republicans agreed to support the withdrawal of federal troops from the former Confederate states, ending Reconstruction. Known as the Compromise of 1877, this deal of political expediency removed federal protection for Southern ex-slaves.[1] The U.S. Constitution places primary responsibility for the holding of elections in the hands of the individual states. The maintenance of peace, conduction of orderly elections, and prosecution of unlawful actions are all state responsibilities, pursuant to the states' primary job of exercising police power and maintaining law and order.
Homeland security
On October 1, 2008, the US Army announced that the 3rd Infantry Division's 1st Brigade Combat Team (BCT) will be under the day-to-day control of U.S. Army North, the Army service component of Northern Command (NORTHCOM), as an on-call federal response force for natural or man-made emergencies and disasters, including terrorist attacks.
This marks the first time an active U.S. Army unit will be given a dedicated assignment to NORTHCOM, where it is stated they may be "called upon to help with civil unrest and crowd control or to deal with potentially horrific scenarios such as massive poisoning and chaos in response to a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or high-yield explosive (CBRNE) attack." These soldiers will also learn how to use non-lethal weapons designed to "subdue unruly or dangerous individuals" without killing them, and also includes equipment to stand up a hasty road block; spike strips for slowing, stopping or controlling traffic; shields and batons; and beanbag bullets.[7] however, the "non-lethal crowd control package [...] is intended for use on deployments to the war zone, not in the U.S. [...]".[7]
The US military will have around 20,000 uniformed personnel in this role in the United States by 2011, specifically trained and equipped to assist state and local government, respond to major disasters, terrorist attack, other major public emergencies.[8] This shift in strategy is a result of recommendations by Congress and outside experts.[8] This response capability is not new, but now accompanies a permanent assignment of forces to NORTHCOM.
This formalizes a role for the use of federal troops within the United States during major public emergencies and disasters, as was the case in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.[7] This has raised concern about the relationship between Posse Comitatus and the use of the military in domestic disaster support and homeland defense roles.[9] however, federal military forces have a long history of domestic roles, including the occupation of sovereign Southern states during Reconstruction and the confiscation of private firearms in the Katrina aftermath.[10] The Posse Comitatus Act prohibits the use of federal military forces to "execute the laws"; however, there is disagreement over whether this language may apply to troops used in an advisory, support, disaster response, or other homeland defense role, as opposed to conventional law enforcement.[1]
On December 10, 2008, the California Highway Patrol announced its officers, along with San Bernadino Sheriff's Department deputies and US Marine Corps Military Police, would jointly staff some sobriety and drivers license checkpoints.[11] however, the Marines at the checkpoints are not arresting individuals or enforcing any laws, which would be a violation of the Posse Comitatus Act.[12] A spokesperson said that the Marines were present to observe the checkpoint to learn how to conduct checkpoints on base, to help combat the problem of Marines driving under the influence. The Marines at a recent checkpoint learned techniques to conduct sobriety checkpoints and field sobriety tests.
As my favorite comedian of all time, the late George Carlin stated, "Mother Nature could shake us off like a bad case of fleas."
As my brother laughed and said in a joke of course......."If the Global Warming people are so scared of the heat, they might watch what they wish for!".........I LMAO when he said that!
The situation in Haiti, for all the desperation and despair it has caused, has also been marked by moments of incredible heroism as well as some miracle rescues of those trapped in the rubble. Yesterday, rescue workers were able to save 2 survivors who were trapped for 126 hours in a collapsed supermarket. Both survivors are said to be in stable condition. Such rescues, so many days after the earthquake, give hope that there is still time to save more victims who are trapped.
Second part: yes, got one for my June birthday! HAIER -- check Amazon et al. Think we got free shipping.
First part: FEMA has NO authority whatsoever to declare martial law, for several reasons:
(1) FEMA is only a small agency under the much-larger Department of Homeland Security. Most of FEMA's workers after a big disaster are reservists. Reservists aren't even covered by the Federal health plan; and CANNOT pack weapons of any kind...except for contracted security officers...who are not reservists.
(2) FEMA has to be "invited" into a State by the State, though preps can and often are made beforehand.
(3) Don't put any stock in the conspiracy blogs... because of the fact that reservists canNOT log-in behind the in-house FEMA computer firewall (unless on an active disaster deployment), they wouldn't even see "secret" orders to deploy, LOL!
You're NOT stupid... you are very smart to ask and keep your mind open, and not be taken in by mean-spirited or sick people who blog for attention -- like the guy who killed the guard at the Holocaust Museum.
BTW, there are lots of FEMA people who have worked in shelters and in morgues, post-disaster -- and that takes a very special sensitivity. So the awful bloggers make this seem like FEMA (& therefore, disaster reservists) would be in charge of "concentration camps" -- not in a million, trillion years.
These days are quite over, imo.
FEMA was an independent agency and now it is under the Department of Homeland Security.
As is the Coast Guard...and ICE...(part of what used to be called INS).
Sucks for some of the departments. More layers...managers...bureaucracy...
For the TVs, be sure to check that the TV is digital. (broadcast is now all-digital. some shady sellers will try to cheat and sell you an analog set).
As for FEMA, most individuals within FEMA are bona-fide great people, with HUGE hearts. The problem is generally the leadership, and the masses of bureaucracy that FEMA has woven within it.
And finally, in regards to conspiracy blogs, 99% of all conspiracies are promoted by people with entirely too much free time, and they generally are created to serve as an outlet for that person to mentally "enjoy themselves", if you get my drift. Completely and utterly useless.
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