November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA
The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.
Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.
Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.
U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.
U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.
Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.
November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.
Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".
Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1044 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1044 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009
...FOCUS CONTINUES FOR AN APPROACHING CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR LATE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PENINSULA...THE WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND LIFT NORTHWARD.
A LARGE AREA OF OVERRUNNING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING...THE SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ONSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AFTER SUNRISE AND SWEEP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH.
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL LIKELY BE PLACED UNDER A TORNADO WATCH...POSSIBLY ISSUED BEFORE SUNRISE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES FRIDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTHWARD.
...
not a big fan of that run. For starters, the low was initialized wrong.
Actual Low Pressure location
GFS estimate for that same low
Oh, they blew that one out of the water! Inital L location about 100 MI to the NE..OOPS..
goodnight!
actually from the graph that I just showed from HPC, it's pretty clear that there is ONLY ONE LOW. With all due respect, any other talk is just conjecture until I see actual evidence backed up by a legitimate source.
6PM CST 12-17-09
I see one L, not two.
No L in the BOC.
I agree with the second part of the statement, looks like the tenn and nc mountains get slighted on this run.
THU DEC 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N83W TO 1006 MB LOW
PRES AREA NEAR 27N92W WITH COLD FRONT TO 19N91W. LOW PRES TRACK
NE TO 30N87W AND INTENSIFY EARLY FRI THEN MOVE TO CAROLINA COAST
FRI NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS SE GULF THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER WEATERN AND CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FRESH BREEZE PERSISTING ELSEWHERE
THROUGH SAT AS REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES INTO AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM W TO E
ACROSS NORTHERN GULF. S RETURN FLOW INCREASE OVER FAR WESTERN
GULF LATE TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER N TEXAS.
a nasty squall line. A good way to view the line is with RGB imagery: RGB imagery
Squall Line
Local TV stations calling for 8+inches.
TWC calling for 5inches.
Retired Met from APP state calling for 6+inches.
NWS in Blacksburg calling for 12-16.
One thing they do agree on is putting a plus sign at the end of their projections and state heavy banding is possible.
Which one should I believe in?
Heaviest snows will be in western NC, west and central VA, DC, western MD, southeastern PA, and NJ. There are projections being tossed around by the computer models of up to 36" of snow NW of DC.
The latest 00Z runs are out. The NAM solution brings to L closer to the coast, bombing out at 976MB S of Nantucket Isl, RI. That solution brings heavy snow all the way into Southern New England, Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, DC.
The GFS solution places the 976 MB bomb about 100 mi or so off the E Coast, which would mean limited accumulations in NYC and Southern New England. However, heavy snow accumulations of up to 36" would affect western NC, west and central VA, DC, MD, DE, far SE PA, NJ.
With all this "modern technology", many big cities, like NWS Balt/DC, NWS Phila/Mt Holly, NWS NYC and NWS Boston have not put any accumulation amounts of any consequence. Gotta give it to NWS Wakefield, VA and NWS Blacksburg, VA for taking a stand and announcing accumulations.
i agree with you completely 100%....its ridiculous how long they wait to give even an estimate...all main forecast show 100%chance of snow on sat....heavy at times, but fail to say how much....at all...and i think Wakefield is very cautious at the amount they are saying...bc of the major uncertainty in this area....a literal shift in track of 50-100 miles and the foot plus band that is forecast now to be over and near charlottsville....could shift toward richmond...
and can you answer this one for me on the map above....why is it that the ensemble clusters of points are consistently staying offshore, but they continue to have the forecast low position on the very western edge of the clusters hanging close to the coast?
im just a little confused on that one...i guess it isnt the same as it is for tracking canes...no center on the ensemble for tracking with winter storms i guess...
its gonna be a wait and see...models tomorrow afternoon should have it narrowed down...
Models want the low to run to a pool warm waters off the north-east but historically speaking these types of storms seem to get farther north than east from what the models forecast.
EXPIRES: 10:00PM, DECEMBER 19, 2009
...POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON FRIDAY... .A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS TODAY. THE STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION POSSIBLY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL OVERWASH PROBLEMS IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE BUILDING SURF WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS SO RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF. AT THE CURRENT TIME TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD REVIEW EVACUATION PLANS...AND BE READY TO MOVE AT A MOMENT`S NOTICE...SHOULD ACTION BE REQUIRED. IN ADDITION THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...AND MARINERS...FISHERMEN...AND BOATING ENTHUSIASTS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
g'morning WU-bloggers.
thanks scu.
MEANWHILE...A LEAD SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
AUGMENTING CONVECTION BETWEEN CUBA/YUCATAN NWD TO THE SCNTRL GULF AT
05Z...WILL TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS FL FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.
Looks like a tough two days along the East Coast!
From the Wilmington NC.. NWS
Forecast as of 6:11 am EST on December 18, 2009
South Santee River South Carolina out to 20 nautical miles... low pressure will move out of the northeast Gulf of Mexico... reaching Savannah this evening and then moving northeast... hugging the Carolina coast tonight. Low pressure will strengthen significantly through tonight and will become a major coastal storm as it moves through the coastal waters...producing dangerous wind and sea conditions. Low pressure will bomb as it moves up the mid-Atlantic coast and away from the area Saturday and Saturday night. Blustery conditions are expected early next week as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest.
Gale Warning in effect through Saturday afternoon
Viewing: 551 - 601
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