Don't shoot the messenger
Monday, December 7, marks the opening of the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The new agreement will be the world's road map for dealing with climate change, and the stakes are huge. It is fitting that the conference begins on the anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, for the Copenhagen conference is sure to be an epic political battle. Indeed, the battle has already been underway for several weeks, with most of the action centering on a PR assault launched by the anti-CO2 regulation forces that sensationalized the contents of the hacked emails from the University of East Anglia. The Wall Street Journal has long been at the forefront of the battle to discredit the science of climate change and the scientists involved, and last week they launched a major offensive, publishing multiple opinion pieces. I'll critique one of these, a December 1 editorial by Bret Stephens which accuses climate scientists of having a vested interest in promoting alarmist views of the climate in order to get research funding. "All of them have been on the receiving end of climate change-related funding, so all of them must believe in the reality (and catastrophic imminence) of global warming just as a priest must believe in the existence of God", Stephens wrote.
Money
It's always wise to follow the money when analyzing the motivations of people. However, Ph.D. atmospheric scientists are less motivated by money than, say, the typical reader of the Wall Street Journal. I am an example of that. Nobody owns more shares of Wunderground.com than I do, yet here I am criticizing the Wall Street Journal and some of the richest and most powerful corporations on the planet--hardly the sort of action that will generate more revenue for my company. Our top climate scientists are some of the most brilliant people on the planet. They could have easily made fortunes on Wall Street devising intricate schemes to hawk sub-prime mortgages or leverage obscure derivatives. Yet these people chose climate science as a career, out of a genuine curiosity about how the world works and desire to help find the truth of whether human-caused climate change poses a significant threat to humanity. The charges that these scientists are exaggerating the danger of human-caused global warming to get more funding is a personal attack on their integrity--a typical politician's ploy to avoid talking about the issues, when one has no valid arguments to bolster one's position. In my 29 years in the weather business, I've had the honor of working with many of the world's top weather and climate scientists. I can personally vouch for their integrity and commitment to pursue the scientific truth, no matter what that truth turns out to be. These are honest, incredibly hard-working public servants who are enduring a punishing assault on their integrity because they are the bearers of bad news. The Earth has plenty of pressing problems requiring the services of brilliant scientists; these public servants will always have a job, and have no need to exaggerate dangers or invent new threats in order to get more research funding. If one reads through the entire set of 3,000 emails hacked from the University of East Anglia--not just the choice few lines excerpted from chosen emails, and then spun by the anti-CO2 regulation lobby to make the scientists look bad--you will see that these scientists are the good guys. Never once is there a mention of fabricating data or fudging results to try to get more research funding. There is no conspiring to perpetate the massive "hoax" of human-caused global warming they have been accused of. Rather, we see a picture of some very smart, hardworking, and very human and imperfect scientists that are doing their best to learn the truth, and pass that information on to the rest of us. You don't get ahead in scince by fudging the data. It's publish or perish. While the peer-review system of publication is not perfect, it generally does an excellent job of rewarding those scientists who seek to publish the truth, and rejects those who do not. Published papers that turn out to be false will, in time, crumble under the weight of subsequent studies that do uncover the truth. Smart scientists tend to have big egos and hate being wrong, so there is additional motivation to publish truthful studies that will withstand the test of time and be validated by subsequent research.
Alarmism
Mr. Stephens uses the words "alarm" or "alarmist" four times in the editorial, and he is clearly trying to provoke an emotional reaction against those Chicken Littles guilty of raising the alarm. Speaking as an atmospheric scientist, I can tell you from long experience that we are not the wild-eyed, alarmist lot that the Wall Street Journal makes us out to be. This makes for some very dull parties (if you're not excited about discussing quasi-geostrophic theory), when we get together for a big bash. Very little alarming behavior takes place. (In fact, after I dragged my wife to three straight devastatingly dull departmental Christmas parties while I was in graduate school, she forbade me from ever requiring her to go to another.) Atmospheric scientists are not an alarmist lot--put us in quiet room with a window and give us a computer and pile of data to analyze, and we'll be as happy as a clam at high tide. The portrayal of climate scientists as alarmist, money-grubbing, dishonest hucksters out to destroy the economy to further their own selfish desires for money or fame is a common theme in climate change denial attacks, and is a very narrow-minded and ignorant one. It's more convenient to shoot the messenger than to acknowledge the truth of the bad news they're bringing.
Toleration of false alarms
It is possible that the alarms climate scientists are raising over climate change will turn out to be false. Environmental scientists have in the past issued false alarms over environmental problems that did not materialize as expected. However, we should expect and tolerate some degree of false alarms, given the uncertainty in forecasting these events. If our scientists never issue a false alarm, then the tolerance for issuing alarms is not correct. Would you criticize the National Weather Service for issuing a tornado warning when a possible tornado signature is spotted on Doppler radar, since less than half of these signatures result in in an actual tornado touchdown? Or the National Hurricane Center for issuing a hurricane warning, since only 25% of the warned coast receives hurricane-force winds, on average? No, some degree of false alarms must be tolerated. Our weather forecasters are dedicated public servants, doing their job of warning the public when their best scientific judgment indicates that there might be a significant threat. It is no different with our climate scientists. They are predicting that there is a greater than 90% chance that most of the observed global warming is due to human causes. Climate scientists are extremely concerned about what their scientific results are saying, and are doing their utmost to warn a public resistant to acknowledging the danger. This resistance runs very deep among conservatives. A 2008 Pew Center poll found that 75% of Democrats with a college education believed that humans were responsible for global warming, while only 19% of college educated Republicans believed that. Conservatives' core belief that a capitalist, free market economy with limited regulation is the best economic system in the world is challenged by acknowledging that human-caused global warming is real and a threat. I greatly respect conservatives who can objectively evaluate the validity of global warming science while holding that core belief, for it is difficult to accept that the best economic system in the world could spawn such a self-destructive force. But as I detailed in a post last week, corporations, by law, exist to make a profit. If scientific research shows that a corporation's products may be harmful to the public health, it the obligation of the company to its shareholders to employ whatever legal means possible to cast doubt on this science, in order to protect profits. The profits of the richest and most powerful industry the planet has ever seen--the fossil fuel industry--are currently so threatened. Thus, we are being subject to history's greatest campaign to deny science, and it is keeping us from much-needed action to curb the danger. These voices are telling us what we want to hear--the danger is not real, the scientists are corrupt and are falsifying their data, the uncertainties are great, and that we cannot afford to change. But the laws of physics don't care about ideology or free market economies or election cycles. The overwhelming majority of our top climate scientists are saying that the laws of physics dictate that massive amounts of greenhouse gases, when added to the atmosphere, will cause warming that will be very damaging to civilization. If we are to limit that damage, we must act soon, for the approaching storm will grow ever stronger the longer we wait. Don't shoot the messengers-- they are on your side.
Other posts in this series
Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?
Next post
My timing of my next post will depend upon the weather.
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for this week's crucial COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. Be sure to tune into his blog for updates on the talks. Wunderground has provided financial support for several University of Michigan students to attend the talks, and I may be featuring portions of their blogs over the coming weeks.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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liked the Arghhhh! haha thanks again
TornadoDude, read this, then slap your friend upside the head!!
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 PM EST MON DEC 7 2009
...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...
.A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-081100-
/O.CON.KIND.HW.A.0002.091209T1200Z-091210T0600Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
948 PM EST MON DEC 7 2009
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* TIMING: THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 7 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 1 AM
THURSDAY MORNING.
* WINDS: SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH MPH POSSIBLE.
* IMPACTS: HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY HAVE DIFFICULTIES
TRAVELLING AND COULD BE BLOWN OFF THE ROAD. LOOSE FURNITURE OR
LAWN ITEMS MAY BE BLOWN AWAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
funny thing is that he actually put that watch in the email....
he said it was an opportunity he couldnt pass up
DO NOT DO IT! YOU WILL REGRET IT!!!
THE BIGGEST STORY FOR WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WINDS. THE SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA. WINDS LOOK UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT UP TO 3000 TO
5000 FT AND THIS COULD MIX WINDS OF 40 KTS /SOME MODELS HIGHER THAN
50/ DOWN TO THE SURFACE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF OVER 40 MPH AND
POSSIBLY REACHING 60 MPH. WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS WILL GO
AHEAD AT THIS TIME AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE DAY.
oh wow!
Make sure you have a life jacket, a survival suit, and let someone else know where you're at, in case something happens. It will be in the 40's, the wind chill will be near 30, the lake temps are about 45-50. Hypothermia sets in within 10 minutes.
DO NOT GO!!!!
I wont
They threw their lives away, they were unprepared, they perished. do NOT let this happen to YOU!!
that photo gives me the CHILLs
I wont, I appreciate your concern!
For the life of me I cannot remember
What made us think that we were wise and we'd never compromise
For the life of me I cannot believe we'd ever die for these sins
We were merely freshmen
We were merely freshmen
We were only freshmen
[What a depressing song; still like it, though -- Matt, are you sure your friend wasn't yanking your chain? Or triple-dog daring you?
Too darn cold to be out on the water, except for a pro or Hooligan's Navy (a Coastie) anyway!]
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
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FNC
The overturned boat that was carrying four football players on a fishing trip is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.
The overturned boat that was carrying four football players on a fishing trip is seen in the Gulf of Mexico.
The Coast Guard called off its search for three missing football players at sunset Tuesday.
The news came after crews combed choppy waters off the Florida Gulf Coast for a third full day since NFL players Marquis Cooper and Corey Smith and friend William Bleakley disappeared. Their fishing boat capsized in stormy seas Saturday evening.
One of the four on the excursion, Nick Schuyler, survived. He said the four friends were able to put on life vests and huddle together, but the others eventually became separated.
Coast Guard Capt. Timothy Close told reporters that the crews were wrapping up their search by the time the sun went down, but commended their efforts.
Click here for photos.
"It's a very, very dynamic environment out there on the open sea," he said.
The Coast Guard said it doesn't believe anyone is on the surface of the water.
"We're extremely confident that if there are any survivors on the surface of the water that we would have found them," Close said.
Searchers found an orange life vest and a cooler floating in the water 16 miles southeast of the boat Tuesday afternoon.
The discovery of the vest came as the father of one of the lost NFL players said the Coast Guard's hopes of finding the three alive were waning.
Bruce Cooper — whose son, Oakland Raiders linebacker Marquis Cooper, owns the boat that capsized while he was fishing with three friends — said the Coast Guard told families privately that officials weren't optimistic because of the time that had passed and the possibility of hypothermia.
Lions running back Kevin Smith called Corey Smith "a good, quiet guy, who always put in an honest day's work."
Contrary to earlier reports, Capt. Close said the two missing NFL players and a third man — along with the fourth, surviving boater — were without the vests the moment they went overboard.
Related StoriesMissing NFL Players Face Dwindling Odds at Sea
Coast Guard: Weather Makes Search for Missing NFL Players Tough
No SOS Signal Received From Missing NFL Players
Photo EssaysNFL Players Among Missing Boaters
"They didn’t have their life jackets on, but they immediately swam under the boat ... and were able to put the life jackets on," Close told reporters Tuesday.
He said Cooper, free-agent defensive lineman Smith, former University of South Florida player Bleakley and survivor Schuyler were contending with very windy, harsh conditions.
"The weather picked up ... and got rough," Close said. "These gentlemen were out in the dark with no lights on."
The Coast Guard crews embarked on another intensive search in still-chilly Florida seas after the weekend accident.
Close said three vessels, a plane and a helicopter would continue aggressively hunting through the day for signs of Cooper, Smith and Bleakley.
The fourth person with them, ex-South Florida football player Schuyler, was found alive and conscious but very weak on Monday clinging to the overturned 21-foot boat owned by Cooper.
"The plan right now is to continue the search through the day," Close told reporters Tuesday. "We're still very actively searching."
In addition to the inflatable life vest found Tuesday afternoon, Close said crews earlier discovered a regular jacket in the water but no other signs of the three missing men, he said.
"We did find one dark jacket floating, no name on it," said Close. "That's it so far."
Investigators were able to get only scant details of what happened from Schuyler because of his condition — but what he told them allowed Coast Guard teams to narrow their effort Monday and Tuesday to a smaller patch of sea near Clearwater.
"Mr. Schuyler was obviously very exhausted, cold and dehydrated, so we were only able to get a little information," Close said.
The Coast Guard said searchers spotted Schuyler off the coast of Florida from a half-mile away and he helped himself into a small rescue boat.
The lieutenant commander and operations coordinator on the Coast Guard cutter that located the Ohio native said the 24-year-old college player had a life jacket on and was responding to the crew.
Schuyler was dehydrated and suffering from hypothermia when he was found hanging onto the hull 35 miles south of Clearwater. But his condition improved to fair at a hospital Tuesday.
He told rescuers that the boat was anchored when it flipped Saturday evening in rough seas.
Searchers have covered more than 20,000 square miles, according to Close. Their path took them south of where the boat flipped over. Weather conditions improved Tuesday.
Close wouldn't speculate Tuesday morning on the men's chances of being rescued alive.
The missing players faced dwindling odds of survival after more than two days in the water, though their size and good health could have helped them fight hypothermia.
"With all of these men being past, present football players, they do have a much larger physique than a lot of people," Petty Officer Robert Simpson said. "So their odds are going to be definitely in their favor."
Cooper, 26, is 6-foot-3, 230 pounds; Smith, 29, is 6-foot-2, 250 pounds. Bleakley, 25, played tight end but his size wasn't immediately known.
Hypothermia can set in after 18 hours in 64-degree water. Water temperatures were in the mid- to upper-60s Tuesday.
Bruce Cooper told reporters Tuesday that he's "mentally exhausted" and the experience has been "gut-wrenching," but he is trying to "stay strong" for his family. He has faith his son could still be alive.
"He's a fighter. He doesn't back down. He's just an extreme fighter," the worried father said. "I'm hoping he's out in the waters right now just fighting. He doesn't give up."
He said he'd been out fishing with his son a few years ago, and Marquis went every chance he got.
"He loved fishing, loved the water," Bruce Cooper said. "He's a gregarious, outgoing, fun-loving kid. He’d invite you to go fishing with him."
The men's families and Schuyler said they had flares aboard, in addition to the inflatable jackets.
Schuyler's mother, Marsha Schuyler, said her son told her he survived by thinking about how he didn't want her to go to his funeral.
Jack Scharf, Cooper's agent, said he had no comment on the Coast Guard's announcement about the end of the search. A man who answered the phone at the home of Smith's father, sounding upset, said no one there could comment.
James Allen, a marine safety consultant who once worked search and rescue operations with the Coast Guard, said the chances of finding survivors diminish after people have been in the water three days.
Survivors have been found who were floating for days, but "you just can't swim forever," Allen said.
The four men left Clearwater Pass early Saturday in calm weather, but heavy winds picked up through the day and the waters grew rough, with waves of 7 feet and higher that peaked at 15 feet on Sunday.
A relative alerted the Coast Guard early Sunday after the men did not return as expected. The Coast Guard said it did not receive a distress signal.
The men were aboard an Everglades-manufactured boat, which is built with compressed foam encased in fiberglas, making it difficult to sink.
Cooper, a 26-year-old who owns the boat, was selected in the third round of the 2004 draft by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers out of Washington. He played 26 games for the Bucs in his first two pro seasons, then led a nomadic NFL existence.
Cooper and Smith, 29, became friends when they were teammates at Tampa Bay. Smith signed with the Bucs as an undrafted free agent in 2002, and spent last season with Detroit before becoming a free agent. The former North Carolina State standout recorded 42 tackles (28 solo), three sacks and 10 special teams tackles in 2008, his best NFL season.
Bleakley, a 25-year-old former tight end from Crystal River, Fla., was on the USF football team in 2004 and 2005. He had one reception for 13 yards in his career, which also included some time on special teams.
Click here for more on this story from MyFOXTampaBay.com.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
See Next Story in U.S.
slap your friend upside the head!!
that would hurt ii got it put some cold icy water from the lake and poor it down his back
he definitely wasnt pulling my leg :P he has a boat that he races, and goes up to michigan all the time, I'm not going.
I was being somewhat sarcastic when I first posed the question
You have ALOT to offer while you're here on planet Earth. Maybe the God in Heaven wants you to complete your FULL mission on Earth. You are a very special young man, whether you truely recognize that or not, I am not sure.
I apologize for scolding you or yelling. I have 5 children, they are ages 37, 34, 26, 25 and 22. Plus my "special daughter" who is 25. I know how much fun or what a challenge that sounds like. IF it was 85F outside and the lake was 70F, and the SW winds blew at 35-50MPH, I'd say, "Knock yourself out. wear a life jacket"! However, the water temps, quite frankly would put your life in danger within 5 minutes.
Be safe, Bob
"So, throughout the year, i have said how i will continue to sail as long as
possible, and that sailing is a year round sport. this is an opportunity to
great to skip. I will be done with class around 1145, and ready to sail as soon
as 1230, but will late to later if needed. i will most likely head to Harken
Lake (only about a 5-10min drive from campus) let me know if your interested or
need a ride!
This is the wind forecast for Wednesday:
High Wind Watch
Statement as of 9:48 PM EST on December 07, 2009
.. High wind watch remains in effect from Wednesday morning
through late Wednesday night...
A high wind watch remains in effect from Wednesday morning
through late Wednesday night.
* Timing: the winds are expected to become strong beginning
Wednesday morning after 7 am and continuing through 1 am
Thursday morning.
*Winds: sustained winds up to 35 mph are expected with gusts in
excess of 50 mph mph possible.
* Impacts: high profile vehicles may have difficulties
travelling and could be blown off the Road. Loose furniture or
lawn items may be blown away.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph... or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.
this ignoring this opportunity just seems foolish doesn't it? so if anyone is
interested in some SUPER high wind sailing on wed let me know. i will be done
with class around 1145, and ready to sail as soon as 1230. let me know if your
interested!
-Josh Borchardt"
I completely understand and respect your opinion, and I agree 100%.
Thanks!
Oh, good...but wudda' if you cudda', he he.
Deepak Chopra just told Conan O'Brien,
"Humor is when your soul recognizes a paradox and it laughs."
Chopra also told Conan that he could tell Conan was very uncomfortable with his body, so he should face his fears and do his show naked.
He said it straight...LOL.
wow LOL I love that show
Tell Josh that he is placing his life in danger. Then, if her ignores your warning, we'll read about it on CNN and every major news network.
I told him, here is my email I sent back:
"From the Indianapolis NWS:
THE BIGGEST STORY FOR WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WINDS. THE SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL INDIANA. WINDS LOOK UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT UP TO 3000 TO
5000 FT AND THIS COULD MIX WINDS OF 40+ KTS /SOME MODELS HIGHER THAN
50/ DOWN TO THE SURFACE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF OVER 40 MPH AND
POSSIBLY REACHING 60 MPH. WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS WILL GO
AHEAD AT THIS TIME AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE DAY.
something about that makes me think that being in 50 degree waters when it is
barely 40 degrees outside, with probably 30 degree windchills, says that I
should not go sailing when the winds are going to be up to 60 MPH, if not more.
so, I think I'll pass, and you should seriously reconsider your plans,
-Matt Phelps"
But people thinking at this level will only ever see things from "their" point of view, which is why arguing abt. things like AGW with them is a waste of time. Especially when the one of the two major cold spots in the world is over them, while the rest of the world is warmer than average.... Talk about specious reasoning.....
Night, all. Take down the sails and drop anchor.
It's massive.
well I'm going to bed with hope of a new blog tomorrow, have a goodnight all!
Proud of you Matt. O, I have done some real, real, real crazy things in my 48+ yrs here on planet Earth, many of them I regret to this day. I am a Spiritual person who has a strong faith in the Lord Jesus Christ, who is far from perfect. Sailing in "gale/storm" force winds is suicidal.
Critising your opponent as much as possible, its politics. Btw in the Charlie brown Christmas special Linus does quote scripture from the bible. In spite of that, hes just a crazy dude.
RMSC Dvorak Intensity: T5.5
Hurricane Force Winds
======================
Storm Force Winds
===============
Gale-Force Winds
=================
Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 11.5S 74.5E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 12.0S 72.8E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 12.9S 69.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 13.0S 67.1E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
Additional Information
======================
Cyclone Cleo intensification rate is breaking Dvorak constraints. According to CIMSS data, system is in phasis with an upper level ridge and the wind shear is weak. Wator vapor imagery shows that upper level divergence remains fairly good over the system. It remains the best over the southern semi-circle, specially over the southwestern quadrant. According to ocean heat content data from RANMB/NOAA/CIRA system is currently located near an area of high ocean heat content. Undergoing good environmental conditions, this small system should reach rapidly its maximum intensity. At 12-24 hours, as the system moves away from this high ocean heat content area, the intensification should stop. Upper level conditions remains favorable within the next 3 days, and the intensity is expected to remain steady. The system tracks west southwestward on the northwestern edge of the slightly weakening subtropical ridge located in the southeast. Available Numerical Weather Prediction remains in good agreement with maintaining this general motion for the next 48 hours, thereafter, mid level steering flows are weaker and storm motion should decrease. This forecast is based on a consensus of the available models.
--
the information for hurricane, storm,or gale force winds was not available
A late-season outbreak of severe thunderstorms moved across central Illinois. Baseball-size hail was reported at Manito in Mason County, as well as Tremont in Tazewell County. In Menard County, tennis-ball size hail was reported at Petersburg. A tornado touched down in far southern McLean County near the town of McLean and moved east to near Heyworth. This tornado caused some damage to a manufacturing plant, as well as several outbuildings on farms along the storm's path.
Looks like Cleo has intensified pretty rapidly overnight (our night, anyway lol). Interesting for this relatively early in the season there....
Tiny but powerful. Wonder if it'll remain this small throughout it's life, or if it'll grow with an EWRC...
2009DEC08 083000 T5.7 939.4/ +4.0 /107.2kts T5.7 Adj T5.9 Raw T6.3
-----------
939 hPa..
Man...his life has gone south so fast.
What the hell are you doing, Tiger?
If he ever returns to the PGA tour he's going to hear it from fans on the course.
What about natural fires?
I'm reminded about this story:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/4330469.stm
"But the scale of China's own entangled history with coal is overwhelming. Right across northern China, coal seams burn in un-stoppable fires.
Some have been burning naturally for thousands of years, but others are being set alight by small-scale mining operations seeking to cash in on soaring coal prices. Together, these perpetual fires are letting off a total amount of carbon dioxide each year equal to all the cars in the USA."
But hey, China is a developing country, so it doesn't matter...
Thats probably the first post of yours I agree with. lol
I did read his post.
He stated: "atmosaggie, there is not one shred of evidence that CO2 would be rising today if not for human fossil fuel emissions."
I asked about NATURAL fires.
"...Right across northern China, coal seams burn in un-stoppable fires. Some have been burning naturally for thousands of years..."
This CO2 is NOT because of HUMAN fossil fuel emissions.
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